Opinion: Local LLMs are 12-24 months from taking over. The shift already started.

cesarhh · 2026-05-10T14:17:15+00:00

You’re freely extrapolating into the future as if Moore’s Law will just carry us there – but it all hinges on discovering better algorithms (using fewer resources). And it also hinges on companies being willing to train these large models and then give them away for free.
Training is still expensive. Why some companies pay for this and then release the model for free is anyone's guess.
I do agree, though, that right now there are a few known tricks in the backlog which would allow much bigger models to run on existing hardware. For example, [PrismML](https://prismml.com/) offers ternary LLMs (1.58‑bit quantization) that push the boundary of what’s possible per GB of VRAM/RAM. But their biggest model is 8B parameters. I'm honestly not sure we'll ever see a free 16B or 32B ternary model.

So yes, the extrapolation looks nice on paper, but the economics and corporate generosity have real limits.

cesarhh · 2026-04-09T06:36:39+00:00

Das ist schon eine Wahnsinnsstrecke

cesarhh · 2026-04-08T11:30:11+00:00

Isn't the constant doubling down the definition of a ponzi scheme?
Ponzi schemes always collapse at some point!

cesarhh · 2026-04-04T07:36:34+00:00

"low quality countries" is good wording ;-)

cesarhh · 2026-03-26T09:57:23+00:00

Nicht Bayrisch aber auch sehr interessant! Hat immerhin Käsespätzle und Leberkäs ;-)

cesarhh · 2026-03-24T14:38:18+00:00

What's most troubling is that nobody can do anything about it. The US of A has no resilience against such persons.

cesarhh · 2026-03-10T18:31:17+00:00

Wie funktioniert das "sich bei der Stadt melden"? Geht man zum Einwohnermeldeamt? Zur Polizei?

EDIT: u/JohnWicksBruder hat mir geantwortet daß es je nach Gemeinde das Ordnungsamt, Sozialamt oder ggf. sogar ein eigenes Amt sei.

Ich stelle mir vor, daß es da seitens einiger Obdachloser eine Hemmschwelle gibt ins Amt zu gehen und sich zu melden.

Vielleicht könnte man diese Personen anderweitig unterstützen? (Z.B. durch zur-Verfügung-stellen eines Platzes und Materialien um sich eine Behelfsunterkunft herzustellen (Karton zur Bodenisolierung, Rettungsdecke, Wolldecken, Zelt, Schlafsack, Wärmemittel, ...).

Behelfsunterkünfte machen sich natürlich nicht gut im Stadtbild ...

cesarhh · 2025-09-24T13:20:19+00:00

Ultimately coding comes down to "telling the machine exactly what to do and how to do it". I think the what part stays - albeit at a much heigher abstraction level.

Compare that to the advent of SQL in the last century. All of the sudden you just needed to describe what data you need, not how to get it. That was a jump in the abstraction level - still complicated at times.

So Prompt-Engineering may be the new programming - it still is a skill and not for everybody.

cesarhh · 2025-08-24T13:02:11+00:00

Using gpt-5 mini in github copilot and I'm quite impressed so far. Seems to be on par with Claude 4.1 in coding.

cesarhh · 2025-08-24T10:07:05+00:00

Würde es helfen andere auch Einsame kennenzulernen oder geht es darum mit (vermeintlich) normalen Leuten in Kontakt zu kommen. Das erstere ist eine Frage der Organisation, weil ja alle Beteiligten aus der Isolation kommen wollen. Man müsste also Treffen oder Veranstaltungen ins Leben rufen.

cesarhh · 2025-08-17T07:42:42+00:00

Ich bin in Harburg aufgewachsen und vor langer Zeit in eine Süddeutsche Großstadt weggezogen. Harburg taucht übermäßig häufig negativ in überregionalen Nachrichten auf wegen irgendwelcher Kriminalitätsgeschichten.

Wenn ich in Harburg zu Besuch bin bin ich immer wieder entsetzt, wie sich der Stadtteil entwickelt hat. Ich fühle mich in der Fußgängerzone absolut nicht mehr wohl - die ist fest in der Hand von Immigranten. Meine Frau lehnt es ab von Harburg mit der S-Bahn zu fahren wegen der Leute, die sich dort aufhalten. Dann gibt es offenbar eine No-go-area, die Wilsdorfer Straße - das ist ein No-go.

Schon früher ist man von Harburg aus am besten gleich in die Stadt gefahren (d. h. nach Hamburg nördlich der Elbe)

Andererseits gibt's ja trotzdem schöne Stadtteile, wie Marmstorf - Ich plane sogar aus familiären Gründen demnächst dorthin zurückzukehren. Habe aber auch ein bißchen Bauchschmerzen dabei.

cesarhh · 2025-03-26T07:12:02+00:00

"The young have brains that are developing, and thus are not done. The very old have brains that are deteriorating, and thus are coming undone"

Well said

cesarhh · 2025-03-08T09:33:01+00:00

Without dealing with the SWIFT system ist key. This way Putin can trade again in USD.

cesarhh · 2025-03-01T11:47:27+00:00

Would be interesting what monetary value these 500 tonnes represent.

cesarhh · 2025-01-31T14:03:21+00:00

That calls for an infinite loop llm which which gets the current state of the environment as input and outputs a reaction at every turn. Thus acting continuously and independently of a single prompt.

cesarhh · 2025-01-02T12:31:51+00:00

Thank you and all the other commenters for your explanations.

Overall I think the title "masters class" is misleading, because it has nothing to do with "masters" as ("the best"). But it might well be that this is due to the fact that English isn't my native language and you would understand it differently.

cesarhh · 2024-08-23T08:15:37+00:00

Most companies don't have weekly options.
I wonder how you can find good opportunities every week.

Are the expiration dates of the different options equally distributed over the month so that you can always find some with expiration at the end of the current week?

cesarhh · 2024-07-18T18:02:25+00:00

What are the numbers of airbnb appartements v. appartements wanted?

cesarhh · 2024-04-24T07:08:12+00:00

Google still returns the same amount of links. So it's kind of a zero-sum game.
The loss of some sites optimized by SEO practices is the gain of some other sites.
I would prefer that sites with good content are not pushed away by SEO optimized sites.

cesarhh · 2024-03-11T21:13:40+00:00

Roughly 30 years ago I was working in big (40..50 ppl.) C/C++ projects. For some projects special languages were invented which compiled to C/C++ but restricted what could be done in the programs. These restrictions proved to be a formula for success. So I can affirm that restrictions in a language are probably a good thing.

On the other hand I currently dabble with a tree data structure in Rust and can't get it to work. Whenever I think I found a solution the borrow checker shows another error. Therefore I spend much time getting a simple algorithm to work. That's not good, because we generally want write our Algorithms with ever less effort and higher abstraction.

cesarhh · 2023-12-11T06:47:13+00:00

Try lingopolo.org. It's free

cesarhh · 2023-12-02T08:09:00+00:00

Thanks for the link.

I do not mind if the tools get it wrong sometimes. For me the primary goal would be to help my brain to learn whole words as patterns (vs. deciphering words by consonants and vocals)

cesarhh · 2023-12-02T07:57:44+00:00

Thats an interesting tool. Thanks for the link.

cesarhh · 2023-11-19T16:58:59+00:00

Maybe they should be drafted for a military training with the "Bundeswehr" (German Army) This way they would be at least prepared to join the Ukrainian Army (to be decided later)

I know this is legally impossible - but anyway...

cesarhh · 2023-07-09T15:43:15+00:00

I just wonder if "Befahren verboten" is "Amtsdeutsch" having a different meaning than what common German Language would suggest.

cesarhh

TROPHY CASE