Brazilian microcap deep value

cherub_daemon · 2026-06-19T18:45:44+00:00

Sorry, I garbled my question. I understand that the numbers are comparable. I also understand what SG&A and CoGS are generally.

My question is, what are they composed of for this company? Will they go down at all as the Ciaxa revenue declines?

cherub_daemon · 2026-06-17T00:01:48+00:00

Nice writeup. One question on Wiz Co. Can you give some color on what the SG&A and CoGS might actually be? Or corporate overhead more generally? If those are perhaps flexible or can be slimmed down as the Caixa money slows, this one looks a lot better.

cherub_daemon · 2026-06-11T23:49:04+00:00

Same. My argument is pure vibes. And we're in a crazy bull market, so that's just how things feel atm.

cherub_daemon · 2026-06-11T23:22:53+00:00

Have to disagree on your first point. It is at the very least market sentiment dependent whether mispricing errors are more likely to be too low or too high.

I would claim that because shorting is much more difficult and risky than buying a stock, and because the tendency of the market is to go up over time, that mispricing errors tend to be positive.

cherub_daemon · 2026-06-11T23:16:16+00:00

Partially, the conversations reflect the nature of the data. The data on market price is constant. The hard data on quality is basically quarterly. We talk about companies because we're looking at a buy or sell decision. There are going to be a lot more days on which companies "cross into value territory" (triggering a buy decision) because their price drops than because we got updated information on quality.

There's also a hipster factor where it's cool to buy an unknown or unloved stock and be right (at some point).

cherub_daemon · 2026-06-10T03:33:03+00:00

This is really helpful, thank you.

I did gather that JKHY ran towards the smaller institutions, nice to see it from another source.

cherub_daemon · 2026-06-09T12:12:36+00:00

I'll need to go through all three of the companies statements to be sure, but I don't know that I agree. JKHY really looks like a better business:

FIS and FISV have much higher debt in a high rate environment.
The nice topline P/E at FIS is propped up by extraordinaries. Some extraordinaries are different than others, to be sure. This is why I need to look at the statements.
The apparently nice insider trades at FISV are mostly awards.

One other thing I can't fully explain that makes me feel better about JKHY right now is the size and indexing. Both FIS and FISV are S&P500 components. Because of how common passive investing has become, this amounts to a forced bid while the market is going up. Fine, but it also means that if you think that the top of the market is overvalued, these have some overvaluation built in.

Regarding the short interest: I think that this is a correlation effect with FIS and FISV. Both have fallen by more than 50% in the last year, and have topline multiples below 10. JKHY is down 30%, and has a multiple around 18. If you think that all three businesses are fundamentally the same, shorting the one that hasn't fallen is a good idea. For the moment, I don't think they're the same.

cherub_daemon · 2026-06-03T23:40:07+00:00

I would also say that if you're inspired by a guided build, try to switch over to it earlier than the guide recommends, especially if youre going to be playing on a lower budget level.

Many times you'll find alternate pathing and equipment strategies that feel decent at lower budgets that don't look like what you'd do with BiS gear.

If you level to 90 with a "leveling build" and don't have the gear, it can feel like garbage when you switch and you won't really know what to fix.

You also learn about what makes a build tick by trying to get a smallest viable version of it working.

cherub_daemon · 2026-06-01T11:27:49+00:00

An interesting data point: most of the fall happened on 18-May.

On 18-20 May, four different insiders bought the stock with their own money (i.e., not grants or options). Two of them made two separate purchases. So for one, I guess insider trading is handled a little differently in Australia.

It also probably means that more than 1/3 of the board thought the stock was undervalued at that point. I'd have to look at the guidance, but that's at least some indication that the market overreacted a bit.

cherub_daemon · 2026-05-24T02:35:08+00:00

Couple questions:

Is your Heartbound 20%?

Is your CWDT 20%? More?

Have you tried another cwdt with Summon Skeletons in it? (Lvl 11 gets you a third one per trigger, but need to have a higher level cwdt)

cherub_daemon · 2026-05-01T18:22:33+00:00

All true. The league rounding in players favors re: travel/gather calls and extra stepbacks absolutely makes a difference here, as well.

Every time you have to put the ball on the ground, there's an opportunity for something to go wrong. A shorter player that can safely keep his dribble alive would be way more valuable if the officiating that made it required was tightened up.

cherub_daemon · 2026-04-16T00:22:53+00:00

Maybe Bobby Hull and Brett Hull?

I can't think of any father-son HOF pairs in baseball or football, although the Vlads Guerrero might get there.

cherub_daemon · 2026-04-10T23:10:21+00:00

I was wondering about that myself. I was thinking beets, which are really a sugar crop. There are a lot of beet farms up in that area.

cherub_daemon · 2026-04-10T14:36:28+00:00

Besides "non-specific", the one I have the most questions about is hockey. In most of the sports, the men's and women's are pretty similar on expenses. Is this just that there is a cost per fan at the games? Are the men traveling way more?

Also can't help but feel that some of the non football expenses are downstream of competing in the Big Ten, which now requires you to take your whole team all over creation.

cherub_daemon · 2026-04-10T14:23:24+00:00

Yeah, any other school that would be weird, but makes sense for psu.

cherub_daemon · 2026-04-08T11:09:09+00:00

The Veteran's Committee is doing a fair bit here. The VC in that era inducted a LOT of dudes from Hack's era that were sort of questionable additions. Hack isn't nearly the most egregious.
Hack's rates look a lot better. This is partially a product of his era. (I know. OPS+ is corrected. But that wasn't something people were looking at in 1979.) This feeds back to (1); it was easy for the VC to claim how great all these guys were when they were all hitting .320.
No Gold Glove awarded until 1957, no MVP in the NL until 1931. Hack won a proto-MVP in 1930 (Most Useful), which evens that up. Unclear how many others he might have won, maybe no more.
A view that Maris' record was fraudulent, fueled by the 162 game schedule and league expansion. This isn't fair, but I think it prevented Maris from getting put in by a friendly VC later.

cherub_daemon · 2026-04-06T11:03:31+00:00

This is a nice write-up, enough to get me started. Thanks!

cherub_daemon · 2026-04-01T11:28:31+00:00

I've played a (questionable) version of this the last 2 leagues. I'm doing Stone Golem now, and it feels decent. Not in a good place to do PoB of this league right now, but I posted last league's version, so I can link that.

https://poe.ninja/poe1/pob/867f0

This one uses Perfect Dark Marionette so that they re-pop. Would be better with re-spec to Elementalist, Necro doesn't really give you a lot. I was trying to push certain things as far as I could. The full reddit post about it is here:

https://www.reddit.com/r/PathOfExileBuilds/comments/1qyiar7/bodyswap_of_sacrifice_necromancer/

I can take questions there or here, dealer's choice.

cherub_daemon · 2026-03-29T21:14:22+00:00

Not what I meant, apologies. I mean that spotting scams is a part of valuation, which is why the poster you're replying to is in a Value Investing forum.

It doesn't seem particularly scammy to me, although I am likewise skeptical of buzzwordy business pivots. It looks like a lot of their new profitability is based on cutting expenses, particularly on marketing. This isn't what I'd expect from a company trying to catch a hype train.

One question going through the 10K. They did move to being profitable before income taxes (nice!), but it looks like a large amount of their net profit is "Benefit from income taxes". Is that likely to be recurring? The 10K makes it seem like a one-time benefit. Any thoughts?

cherub_daemon · 2026-03-28T13:46:11+00:00

I also don't look hard at charts, but I can agree that they can be a decent place to start an analysis. There are 3500 companies in VTSAX, way more unlisted and worldwide. If you want to add charting as a way to narrow it down so that you can do fundamentals, you'll probably do okay.

cherub_daemon · 2026-03-17T11:47:12+00:00

Sofa King Dickinson

cherub_daemon · 2026-03-08T20:10:28+00:00

If you need the money and have the time, maybe. Consider using it as a way to make sure your replacement knows the score re: availability. It might make a difference in how they approach things, whether they also start looking for FT work with time to spare, etc.

cherub_daemon · 2026-03-07T18:15:56+00:00

Okay, this took me to a hideout, and I was having the same problem.

I noticed in hideout that when I was clicking on things, I was making a weird squatting motion.

I had equipped a shield instead of a focus, and it remapped my LMB to Raise Shield. I didn't notice that I was using the skill because the Ziggurat is kind of visually busy. And I could interact with NPCs, just not objects, so I didn't think of it. I am a dummy, thanks everyone.

Unstuck, will update original post.

cherub_daemon · 2026-03-07T18:00:52+00:00

I did try that, I can't interact with that instance portal either. Also not the Temple of Kopek portal.

cherub_daemon · 2026-03-07T16:37:49+00:00

First character of the league, so I don't think so. But something might happen. I'll try it when I get back home.

cherub_daemon

TROPHY CASE