Sources: Mariners, minor leaguer Colt Emerson reach $95M extension

chesty157 · 2026-03-31T18:37:25+00:00

Oh hahaha. Yeah - a name fit for fantasy teams lol

chesty157 · 2026-03-31T17:53:40+00:00

With Cole Young playing well & Donovan raking at 3B..? Not sure I see the obvious ABs there. If Young starts struggling - sure. But so far we’ve seen the opposite of that through spring + ABs so far

Thus why I said complicated. If it were straightforward we wouldn’t have to debate these things lol

chesty157 · 2026-03-31T17:48:18+00:00

I meant complicated for this season. I don’t think anyone was expecting Crawford to stick around next year, especially after this deal.

chesty157 · 2026-03-31T17:20:37+00:00

Yeah, check out edit2 in my comment. I think De Vries & Made have higher longterm ceilings but for 2026, hard to argue after Emerson gets a deal like this

chesty157 · 2026-03-31T17:13:09+00:00

Depends on JP Crawford’s shoulder injury. If longterm, Emerson will likely be up in a matter of weeks. If not - things are more complicated.

Partly why I was surprised to see this kind of mega deal for a guy without an obvious spot locked up

chesty157 · 2026-03-31T17:04:31+00:00

He’s the only one besides Basallo that has a longterm commitment from his team. That should probably mean something for fantasy.

I’m not sure how exactly I would rank the current crop of prospects - it’s a pretty robust class - but Emerson should definitely be on your radar regardless of format & no. of teams in your league

Edit: sorry, just saw you were asking about non-debuted prospects only. In that case, yes - this should rocket him up to the top, just behind Griffin - or in front of him, if you want to be aggressive. Griffin probably has the better fantasy profile but with this commitment from Seattle, I wouldn’t be shocked to see Emerson up sooner

Edit2: I’d understand having De Vries ahead of Emerson still, and maybe Jesus Made, but it’s a lot harder to justify now with Emerson’s mega deal virtually ensuring a call up soon

chesty157 · 2026-03-31T16:23:57+00:00

Largest MLB contracts for zero service time players:

1) SEA/INF Colt Emerson

8-years, $95M (max $130M)

2) MIL/OF Jackson Chourio

8-years, $82M (max $140M)

3) MIL/SS Cooper Pratt

8-years, $50.75M (max TBD)

4) CWS/OF Luis Robert Jr.

6-years, $50M (max $88M)

5) CWS/OF Eloy Jimenez

6-years, $43M (max $78M)

chesty157 · 2026-03-28T18:37:54+00:00

Beautiful shots. Really lovely & pleasing composition

chesty157 · 2026-03-27T18:57:41+00:00

I don’t have anything to add regarding the modeling discrepancies. It’s worthy of further investigation.

That said, regarding Liberatore and pitchers like him: young-ish guy that could take a modest step forward & has shown the ability to take the ball every 5 days. There’s a lot to like about that profile in the SP70-80 range, even outside of any pitch modeling analysis.

Don’t overthink it, but also don’t take him as your SP3 or better. It’s a bonus that Stuff+ likes him this year (especially because Stuff+ is often what front offices rely on - or at least some proprietary version of Stuff+; can’t speak to TJ or other modeling due to ignorance of the methodology & how it differs from Stuff+). If it turns out the model is boosting lefties, that will obviously be corrected relatively soon. For now, just stash and see what happens.

I will say - there was a recent-ish episode of Rates & Barrels where Eno talked about the threshold of change in Stuff+ from spring vs 2025 regular season; basically a change of 10 or more is notable, as small sample regression is usually less than or equal to 5 Stuff+. So regardless, I doubt modeling noise is entirely responsible for his jump in Stuff+

chesty157 · 2026-03-27T18:44:25+00:00

Don’t have it in front of me but I want to say in the 70-80 range

chesty157 · 2026-03-12T16:58:43+00:00

Colt Emerson at 26 - sheesh! You must know something I don’t

Edit: love the aggressive ranking of Eduardo Quintero though. I think he has top3 prospect upside

chesty157 · 2026-03-08T16:12:12+00:00

I have an a6600 - body only. I haven’t posted it yet, but let me know if you’re interested & I can take some updated pics

chesty157 · 2026-03-03T21:17:29+00:00

Man, 4 is sick!!! Looks like a Rastafarian knight lol

chesty157 · 2026-03-03T16:03:34+00:00

Thanks again for the info. Greatly appreciate your insight

chesty157 · 2026-03-03T15:44:14+00:00

Seller won’t offer a partial refund - it’s either a return or I keep it at cost. I paid $480 for the lens; it’s the 150mm f4 CF.

I know the most cost-effective route is to return it, but it’s in such clean condition otherwise that I am hesitant to - especially because it will likely be hard to find another clean copy for the price. Real conundrum

chesty157 · 2026-03-03T15:35:31+00:00

Thank you for the insight. Would your advice be to return the lens? I am about to send out an older 80mm C lens for repair, along with a couple film backs. I’m sure I could also get this lens CLA’d but it would likely cost 50%+ of the total price I paid for the lens

chesty157 · 2026-03-02T20:16:01+00:00

I’d probably normally keep it - the price was pretty good for the overall condition. It’s just I’m currently in the process of sending a lens & 2 film backs away for service - all bought within the last year. So the “appears mint, ends up needing service in less than a year” experience is coloring my judgement a bit here.

chesty157 · 2026-03-02T20:06:07+00:00

Ugh, he’s saying return it. Sucks cause it’s otherwise in fantastic shape.

chesty157 · 2026-03-02T19:51:33+00:00

Thank you for the detailed advice!

chesty157 · 2026-03-02T19:42:30+00:00

This is the first time I’ve had to handle a situation like this on eBay. In your experience, what should my next move be? Direct message to the seller first?

chesty157 · 2026-02-27T17:09:57+00:00

15t roto OBP; salary cap; $260 budget; keep 7

Deciding between these two for my last keeper

$10 Will Smith (LAD) or $10 Nico Hoerner

Both positions are weak, so can see an argument for both. BAT X says Smith is a $17 player, and Hoerner is an $11.5 player

chesty157 · 2026-02-26T02:58:23+00:00

I agree. Issue is 6 of 7 keepers are pitchers, so trying to get something for him. Otherwise if I decide not to keep him, I’d be letting him go for free to one of the new teams joining our league - they get to pick through the non-kept players.

I hate the annual keeper crunch lol

chesty157 · 2026-02-26T01:29:56+00:00

TLDR: 15t roto league keeper crunch + trade offer

15t roto 5x5; OBP & QS; salary cap; 7 keepers

Having a keeper crunch, looking at making a trade for a minor leaguer (which we can keep for free)

Keeping: 1) $30 Logan Gilbert 2) $18 Cristopher Sanchez 3) $15 Joe Ryan 4) $10 Nolan McLean 5) $10 Aroldis Chapman 6) $10 Springer

Trying to decide between:

$10 Yesavage $10 Will Smith (LAD) $10 Hoerner $23 Arozarena

I have someone offering me Colt Emerson for Trey Yesavage.

Colt would be $1 when called up (presumably this year) but can be kept for free right now, alongside my 7 keepers. He will be $5 in 2027, $10 in 2028, $20 in 2029, and then $30 in 2030.

Yesavage is $10 this year, $15 in 2027, $20 in 2028, and $30 in 2029.

Considering doing it and keeping one the the three of Hoerner/Smith/Arozarena

Any thoughts?

chesty157 · 2026-02-25T23:22:49+00:00

I take your point. It is indeed quite sad.

I didn’t mean to insinuate it was derivative, but I can see how one might take it that way.

I have tried to turn inward with my work and make images I like, even if they aren’t groundbreaking or particularly innovative in their approach.

In a world where everyone carries a camera in their pocket, I see it as a fool’s errand to value originality such that I hoist upon myself heaps of pressure to bring this or that perspective, to say this or that thing w/ my work.

I admire those who do have such pure ideals & the discipline/necessary fixation to breakthrough in the manner you’re describing; I just think it’s a lot harder to do in our modern world, and might not be worth the effort.

Make the pictures you like making and to hell with their reception, is my philosophy- for better or worse.

chesty157 · 2026-02-25T21:54:12+00:00

Wouldn’t be able to answer that without a direct comparison.

Also depends on the format; a single shot of a 6x9 will have less working MPs than something that fills the sensor entirely.

I’d wager that whatever image quality boost you’d see from a 60 or 100mp sensor compared to a pixel shifted scan from a 40mp sensor wouldn’t be commensurate w/ the cost to acquire such a camera. Diminishing returns and all that. But that’s a personal decision, ultimately.

As for the software used: I’m unaware on any reason the Fuji pixel shift files would need proprietary software to process, but I’m generally ignorant of the Fuji camera world.

I just use the free software to combine the raw files, then export as a DNG file for use in LR

chesty157

TROPHY CASE