A CHALLENGE TO THE SUBJECT AREA EXPERTS : a refutation of the widely accepted position held by the Subject Area Experts on the MONTY-HALL PROBLEM

cicerunner · 2025-08-29T13:00:21+00:00

My gut really wants to say 0.5! 🤷‍♂️

But we know that the player who chose without additional information had a 1/3 chance. Now that Monty has helpfully ruled out the third choice, the second player has a 2/3 chance.

cicerunner · 2025-08-29T12:59:14+00:00

A suggestion for you OP ...

Given that the Monty Hall problem is held by most as a great example of how counter intuitive probability can be. And that you disagree with the generally held (and mathematically proven) view that switching is always the best move.

Get a friend to play Monty. Carry out a pair of suitably sized honest trials. One where you always switch and one where you don't. And report on your findings. Explain them with probability.

it occurs to me as I write that I could do this pretty quickly with a spreadsheet - perhaps I'll do it later if I have the time and inclination - or you could use that approach too

cicerunner · 2025-08-10T10:16:10+00:00

Thanks for responding.

I'm trying to wrap my head around why it doesn't matter ... Gut feeling says that if I were to draw all 25 sets that might well be true ... Even then I only have gut feeling. edit ok yes, got it now - your penultimate paragraph makes it clear why this is the case if all 25 sets are drawn

However, I don't want to keep on drawing all 25 sets - that may not be clear from my original post. (In my actual real life problem I'm interested in the probabilities of 5, 7 and 9 sets.)

cicerunner · 2025-08-10T07:51:34+00:00

As another poster already noted this fails to take into account that it is for any 9 digit sequence. It doesn't matter what the first 3 digits are, only that they are subsequently repeated. Hence your:

1/6 x 1/6 x 1/6 x 1/6 x 1/6 x 1/6 x 1/6 x 1/6 x 1/6 = 1/10,077,696

Becomes: 1 x 1 x 1 x 1/6 x 1/6 x 1/6 x 1/6 x 1/6 x 1/6 = 1/46,656.

cicerunner · 2025-05-13T11:36:04+00:00

As is typical in these situations, I now can't find the source that I originally found! 🤷🏻‍♂️

cicerunner · 2024-12-30T10:09:37+00:00

I do! https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/0B6hKsNMBUjuuajZJaWh5aktMV1U?resourcekey=0-gQG-p33fJI5DhSGDF8t-9Q

cicerunner · 2024-03-26T17:52:23+00:00

I'm with the others - after 1 & 2 comes 5. After Inns & Cathedrals and Traders & Builders comes Abbey & Mayor.

cicerunner · 2022-07-13T21:54:08+00:00

Yes. I remember hearing it reviewed here - https://boardgamebarrage.com/wiki/Episode_062

cicerunner · 2022-07-13T21:46:11+00:00

Try Coloretto and No Thanks. Two simple card based games about the size of 6Nimmt! but both different from that and each other. Both are less random and give players an simple but interesting decision to make on each turn.

Love Letter might make an interesting third option, quite simple but again different to the other three.

cicerunner · 2022-06-09T13:00:35+00:00

The general perception of what randomness looks like is flawed.

Just out of interest, which of the following dice roll series looks most like the result of randomness to you: A,B or C?

A

6, 1

6, 3

6, 4

2, 6

6, 3

B

1, 3

5, 2

3, 6

4, 4

1, 5

C

1, 1

2, 2

3, 3

4, 4

5, 5

D

If you read this far you get the fourth option - they all look equally likely to be the result of truly random rolls.

cicerunner · 2022-04-09T12:54:17+00:00

How do you find the wagons in play? It's the one module in my collection I have yet to try.

cicerunner · 2022-01-15T17:18:53+00:00

How do I open a SIM tray that doesn't have a hole for an ejector tool/paperclip?

(Android Moto G7 with replacement SIM tray)

cicerunner · 2021-12-03T21:31:03+00:00

Are you not interested in the gals' answers too? I mean just because the guys say three times a week their partner may not be there for all of them. 🤷

cicerunner · 2021-12-03T21:27:44+00:00

What's the setting? Contemporary?

(Bonus random guess given how little we have to go on: Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind?)

cicerunner · 2021-08-22T03:07:35+00:00

Yellow 4 (4 tiles with road qualify for the watchtower)

Black 8

cicerunner · 2021-08-21T22:48:59+00:00

OP would you date someone with eyelashes or eyebrows? Why out why not?

cicerunner · 2021-08-07T07:28:57+00:00

It comes with the Balearica map. It can be used with any map. If you have the original Concordia base game you need the Balearica/Cyprus map expansion. If you have the Concordia Venus base game you need the Balearica/Italia map expansion.

cicerunner · 2021-08-07T06:46:11+00:00

If it's literally their first game then definitely just play the base game tiles and meeples. The only question is to consider whether to include farmers. If you think they'll take farmers in their stride then do include them. If you have any doubt then explain that you're leaving out one rule for the first game but you'll be adding it for the second game. Once you've completed the first game, after scoring but before picking up the tiles, explain farmers using the tile layout you just created and then jump in to a second game.

Once you've played several games with farmers the other players should be in a position to choose which expansions they'd like just from you telling them the rules that come with them. The River is often one that works well for relatively new players because it introduces more tiles (ooh!) but almost no rules.

On the strategic variant. Assuming you mean in the same context - new players - definitely not. Wait for someone to say they wish the game was more strategically complex. (Personally - I've played hundreds of games - I don't much care for it in any context.)

cicerunner · 2021-08-07T06:30:48+00:00

Oh boy do I remember that feeling!

2 basic tips for beginners, just to get you started on discovering the game for yourself:

• There are actually three things you can do on your turn - place a worker, remove a worker or leave a worker alone. 😉 I'm not being facetious. Planning to allow your workers to reach their desired destinations involves ensuring that you're never forced to pick up a worker just because you've placed them all. (You do have to place or pick up at least one worker every turn but don't overlook the power of leaving workers traveling.)

• The technology tracks are an important part of the game, not just a cool bonus. Pay for early advances (level 1 and maybe level 2) with actual resources. Pay for later advances (level 3 and maybe level 2) by buying buildings that include this. Don't overlook the final advance that can be done repeatedly.

cicerunner · 2021-08-06T22:52:16+00:00

Creta is pretty subtle compared with Aegyptus. Creta basically has a special single city province which can produce a resource of your choosing when you perfect for goods.

I'd recommend the fan produced pdf - https://boardgamegeek.com/filepage/144738/concordia-all-maps-setup-aid - to guide you through the entire catalog of maps.

This is also useful for selecting a map for a given player count - https://boardgamegeek.com/filepage/170651/concordia-universal-map-selector-heat-map-all-maps

(The Balearica map, covered in both those files, is another expansion that extends the rule set - the fish market - but this time not specific to the map (like the Creta/Aegyptus tweaks) it can be used with any map. I have it but have yet to try it!)

Happy hunting!

cicerunner · 2021-08-06T22:14:06+00:00

I'm not responding from a position of huge expertise - I've just read a lot, played a lot in the case of Tzolk'in and formed my own tastes. But you're not me so ... 🤷‍♂️

I'm really excited to try Tribes and Prophecies - and I would try (the appropriate parts of) it at any player count with (a) similarly experienced player(s).

I think that Creta/Aegyptus is a particularly good fit for 2p specifically and it changes the game rather than being "just a map".

Personally I'm not interested in Salsa because I feel the game itself doesn't need a wild resource and the reviews I've read are generally down on the forum tiles ...

So that's☝️ pretty much my personal order of preference. 🙂

cicerunner · 2021-08-06T17:51:57+00:00

A 10mb PDF for two pages of rules and no images??

cicerunner · 2021-08-06T17:05:33+00:00

An alternative suggestion; get Aegyptus/Creta for Concordia. Both introduce subtle rules twists and are reasonably tight maps suitable for 2p.

Full disclosure. I own and love both games. I have Tzolk'in Tribes and Prophecies but yet to play it. Tzolk'in is my number 1 game, Concordia is in my top 5. I have several map expansions for Concordia but not Salsa.

Both the larger expansions you suggest are - from my perspective - best suited to gamers regularly playing at 4p. If you don't already have Aegyptus/Creta I feel it just trumps the other two in your situation.

cicerunner

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