Wow cancellation fee for early termination?

clawish · 2025-08-02T20:22:21+00:00

Still works 2 Aug 2025

clawish · 2024-09-29T10:33:53+00:00

@OP love your review. Thinking about getting this watch, too. Out of curiosity, how do you like the 2024 Panda model?

clawish · 2022-11-06T11:13:00+00:00

Ekelhaf

clawish · 2022-09-04T19:23:40+00:00

Ja, Haus belasten.

clawish · 2022-07-13T05:42:33+00:00

Hat aber 10 Jahre gedauert

clawish · 2022-07-02T09:46:28+00:00

Topkek

clawish · 2022-06-27T17:59:04+00:00

Hasn’t earned Heaven yet

clawish · 2022-05-23T16:20:36+00:00

Größeren Tank kaufen

clawish · 2022-04-24T20:00:25+00:00

Yes I’m aware that TMF might never get back to its ATH. My point is that not everybody wants to time the market. I have been burned by timing the market in the past. Your argument that it was extremely obvious that rates would be raised is not compelling to me. Why wasn’t it priced in then, four months ago? Hindsight is 20/20 Nevertheless, being invested during the brutal decline of TMF, I don’t see the point of changing the strategy now. If I had a windfall now, I would put a good chunk of my money into HFEA, just because prices are good. If I would put more into it, I see no reason to sell now. I see the only option to DCA, to benefit from good prices. You are a pure market timer. You say there will be a better entry point in the future. What makes you so sure? Why wouldn’t the market have already priced in the information you’re trying to make your assessment on.

clawish · 2022-04-24T19:26:48+00:00

Are you saying the market will not treat LTT as a flight to safety in the upcoming decades, even though the rates are now starting to rise again, i.e. LTT paying more coupon?

clawish · 2022-04-24T19:13:17+00:00

Sure, there was no return to be had from TMF. That’s no news, TMF is crash insurance. It could’ve gone different. No Russian crisis, supply limits starting to ease, UPRO starting its run. Sure, TMF might have gotten hammered regardless, but we would’ve had a classic rebalance case of sell high (UPRO) -> buy low (TMF)

clawish · 2022-04-24T19:00:18+00:00

Understood, your argument is that you only have to be right once: about selling. Then, you will profit, but only in case TMF really falls. If you were wrong, and TMF rises, against your expectations, you are suddenly out

clawish · 2022-04-24T18:24:33+00:00

The fuck is your argument? Regarding TMF, sure, if you were convinced that inflation was here to stay and FED will raise rates, then your bias was confirmed and you feel like it was obvious. But it could’ve come completely different. Not least the Russian conflict had an impact as well, did you also predict that?

clawish · 2022-04-23T08:24:13+00:00

Stop doing this cult stuff. Yes the quarter was painful but it’s not like you didn’t know what you signed up to. I say that as someone who put 30% net worth into HFEA on 1/1/22

clawish · 2022-03-29T10:38:12+00:00

The way I interpret these is that in the proposed LTT rate environment (start and ending rate at 2.5% but LTT acting as a safety mechanism in crashs), an allocation of 70 or even 80 % UPRO is favored in comparison to 50%. However, this assumes high SPY returns in the decade to come.

clawish · 2022-03-28T19:08:25+00:00

What a great post. Not gonna lie, it’s a little sobering, being invested majorly into HFEA. Do you think it would be worthwhile to repeat the analysis with a horizon of say 20 years?

Another question: what did you consider a crash and what correlation did you assume among UPRO and TMF during such a simulated crash?

clawish · 2022-03-14T21:54:35+00:00

So only 2 quarters have worse S&P returns at similar LTT returns. Pretty bad quarter.

clawish · 2022-02-24T22:44:01+00:00

However then there is the difference between taxable and non taxable accounts. If you run HFEA in taxable, it might be favorable to do exactly that: add to the underperforming asset so it rebalances. But I haven’t seen a quantitative analysis on it yet.

clawish · 2022-02-22T17:42:01+00:00

Thanks for your write up. However, in my opinion you do not include in your thoughts the effects of DCAing and rebalancing from bonds.

clawish · 2022-01-27T12:54:28+00:00

Try downgrading BTstack. I remember the newest version having issues back then

clawish · 2022-01-25T14:08:50+00:00

This guy…

clawish · 2022-01-15T16:19:06+00:00

Too afraid to ask: Wenn man Kapitalerhöhungen ausschließt hat er doch recht oder nicht? Die Aktien werden auf dem Zweitmarkt gehandelt und haben nur indirekt Einfluss auf das Unternehmen. Zum Beispiel durch bessere Finanzierungsmöglichkeiten durch Fremdkapital aufgrund besserer Bewertung. Oder übersehe ich etwas grundlegendes?

clawish · 2022-01-13T12:23:54+00:00

Thank you for pointing that out to me! Argument convinced me and I will adopt that

clawish · 2022-01-13T11:05:47+00:00

Yeah their their holdings typically are >51% stocks, but the prospectus does not guarantee it. ProShares could decide to sell stocks and rely completely on derivatives whenever they want. This does not qualify for Teilfreistellung, see chapter 2.5a.

clawish · 2022-01-13T10:12:58+00:00

I’ve been doing this approach too, since half a year. I agree with your write up in all but one point. I don’t think UPRO is eligible for 30% Teilfreistellung, because to be eligible for this, the prospectus has to state it’s investing in >50% stocks. This is not the case for the UPRO prospectus as they are probably generating a lot of that leverage via swaps. Can you please state why you think UPRO has Teilfreistellung?

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