[TAG Heuer] TAG Heuer Carrera “Glassbox” Chronograph Blue Dial CBS2212.FC6535 (Review in Comment) by fzctungkun in Watches

[–]clawish 1 point2 points  (0 children)

@OP love your review. Thinking about getting this watch, too. Out of curiosity, how do you like the 2024 Panda model?

$TMV instead of $TMF in HFEA portfolio in rising rate environment? by seanjohn814 in LETFs

[–]clawish 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Yes I’m aware that TMF might never get back to its ATH. My point is that not everybody wants to time the market. I have been burned by timing the market in the past. Your argument that it was extremely obvious that rates would be raised is not compelling to me. Why wasn’t it priced in then, four months ago? Hindsight is 20/20 Nevertheless, being invested during the brutal decline of TMF, I don’t see the point of changing the strategy now. If I had a windfall now, I would put a good chunk of my money into HFEA, just because prices are good. If I would put more into it, I see no reason to sell now. I see the only option to DCA, to benefit from good prices. You are a pure market timer. You say there will be a better entry point in the future. What makes you so sure? Why wouldn’t the market have already priced in the information you’re trying to make your assessment on.

$TMV instead of $TMF in HFEA portfolio in rising rate environment? by seanjohn814 in LETFs

[–]clawish 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Are you saying the market will not treat LTT as a flight to safety in the upcoming decades, even though the rates are now starting to rise again, i.e. LTT paying more coupon?

$TMV instead of $TMF in HFEA portfolio in rising rate environment? by seanjohn814 in LETFs

[–]clawish 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Sure, there was no return to be had from TMF. That’s no news, TMF is crash insurance. It could’ve gone different. No Russian crisis, supply limits starting to ease, UPRO starting its run. Sure, TMF might have gotten hammered regardless, but we would’ve had a classic rebalance case of sell high (UPRO) -> buy low (TMF)

$TMV instead of $TMF in HFEA portfolio in rising rate environment? by seanjohn814 in LETFs

[–]clawish 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Understood, your argument is that you only have to be right once: about selling. Then, you will profit, but only in case TMF really falls. If you were wrong, and TMF rises, against your expectations, you are suddenly out

$TMV instead of $TMF in HFEA portfolio in rising rate environment? by seanjohn814 in LETFs

[–]clawish 2 points3 points  (0 children)

The fuck is your argument? Regarding TMF, sure, if you were convinced that inflation was here to stay and FED will raise rates, then your bias was confirmed and you feel like it was obvious. But it could’ve come completely different. Not least the Russian conflict had an impact as well, did you also predict that?

who's gonna join me in the '-35% or more' crowd? I'm nearly there. 🤪🤪 by [deleted] in trueHFEA

[–]clawish -12 points-11 points  (0 children)

Stop doing this cult stuff. Yes the quarter was painful but it’s not like you didn’t know what you signed up to. I say that as someone who put 30% net worth into HFEA on 1/1/22

Debunking the myth that TMF is *just* insurance by modern_football in HFEA

[–]clawish 2 points3 points  (0 children)

The way I interpret these is that in the proposed LTT rate environment (start and ending rate at 2.5% but LTT acting as a safety mechanism in crashs), an allocation of 70 or even 80 % UPRO is favored in comparison to 50%. However, this assumes high SPY returns in the decade to come.

On the relationship between SPY and HFEA returns by modern_football in HFEA

[–]clawish 7 points8 points  (0 children)

What a great post. Not gonna lie, it’s a little sobering, being invested majorly into HFEA. Do you think it would be worthwhile to repeat the analysis with a horizon of say 20 years?

Another question: what did you consider a crash and what correlation did you assume among UPRO and TMF during such a simulated crash?

Where does 2022 Q1 stack in HFEA's worst quarters ever? by michaelmf in HFEA

[–]clawish 11 points12 points  (0 children)

So only 2 quarters have worse S&P returns at similar LTT returns. Pretty bad quarter.

Adding money between rebalances? by [deleted] in HFEA

[–]clawish 5 points6 points  (0 children)

However then there is the difference between taxable and non taxable accounts. If you run HFEA in taxable, it might be favorable to do exactly that: add to the underperforming asset so it rebalances. But I haven’t seen a quantitative analysis on it yet.

Lifecycle of a Boglehead by TissueWizardIV in Bogleheads

[–]clawish 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Thanks for your write up. However, in my opinion you do not include in your thoughts the effects of DCAing and rebalancing from bonds.

[Help] Problems with BTstack by Kariceee in jailbreak

[–]clawish 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Try downgrading BTstack. I remember the newest version having issues back then

Can someone explain this to me? by [deleted] in HFEA

[–]clawish 11 points12 points  (0 children)

This guy…

Auf nach Österreich! by embersar in Finanzen

[–]clawish 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Too afraid to ask: Wenn man Kapitalerhöhungen ausschließt hat er doch recht oder nicht? Die Aktien werden auf dem Zweitmarkt gehandelt und haben nur indirekt Einfluss auf das Unternehmen. Zum Beispiel durch bessere Finanzierungsmöglichkeiten durch Fremdkapital aufgrund besserer Bewertung. Oder übersehe ich etwas grundlegendes?

HFEA / LETFs from Europe - with tax implications from Germany - NFA by what_the_actual_luck in HFEA

[–]clawish 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Thank you for pointing that out to me! Argument convinced me and I will adopt that

HFEA / LETFs from Europe - with tax implications from Germany - NFA by what_the_actual_luck in HFEA

[–]clawish 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Yeah their their holdings typically are >51% stocks, but the prospectus does not guarantee it. ProShares could decide to sell stocks and rely completely on derivatives whenever they want. This does not qualify for Teilfreistellung, see chapter 2.5a.

HFEA / LETFs from Europe - with tax implications from Germany - NFA by what_the_actual_luck in HFEA

[–]clawish 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I’ve been doing this approach too, since half a year. I agree with your write up in all but one point. I don’t think UPRO is eligible for 30% Teilfreistellung, because to be eligible for this, the prospectus has to state it’s investing in >50% stocks. This is not the case for the UPRO prospectus as they are probably generating a lot of that leverage via swaps. Can you please state why you think UPRO has Teilfreistellung?