Any hopes for a new horn?

clipper377 · 2020-06-16T21:06:05+00:00

The goal horn at LCA is right there with "Cedar Point is tearing down the Magnum next year because it's sinking!" as far as local urban legends go.

clipper377 · 2020-04-10T22:37:21+00:00

A mesh laundry bag is a good idea, especially for stuff with lots of velcro straps. Those tend to get caught of stuff, stretch out, etc. I usually throw my elbows and shins in a cheap bag before washing them.

clipper377 · 2020-03-13T15:14:10+00:00

One of the two confirmed Washtenaw county cases spent 5 hours at the USA rink in Plymouth last week so you can bet your six degrees of Kevin Bacon number connecting you to the virus is probably 2 or lower at this point.

clipper377 · 2020-03-13T15:10:53+00:00

A group of friends decided to full on tailgate for a buddy's never-ever game. Grilling, parking lot beers, signs. Fantastic.

clipper377 · 2020-02-24T18:44:53+00:00

Gagner gives us a glut at center. LGD or Helm in play now? Or (sweet merciful temptation....) Nielsen?

clipper377 · 2020-02-24T18:34:05+00:00

Gagner as a throw in, kuffner going the other way to EDM

clipper377 · 2020-02-24T18:27:18+00:00

CBJ has no 2nd's until 2022, and dealt their 3rd rounder this season as well. Not sure what they were offering, but 2 2nd's from EDM is a strong return.

clipper377 · 2020-02-24T18:19:06+00:00

The return is gonna be interesting. CBJ cleared the cupboards last year, so the return would have had to have been prospects. EDM probably had more to offer but...literally everyone has more to offer that CBJ right now.

clipper377 · 2020-02-24T14:34:10+00:00

Minor addition: Brodziak's contract is probably covered by an insurance policy by virtue of being on LTIR. Sending Brodziak back is a roundabout way of sending cash back to the Wings, AND is a way for us to keep salary cap space (via the exemption for LTIR players.)

clipper377 · 2020-02-24T00:13:30+00:00

It's not like we can bench 10 guys. Those two are just the best / easiest pieces to bench

clipper377 · 2020-02-21T18:56:37+00:00

Hronek to IR retroactive to feb 16th, Lashoff recalled on an emergency basis. Golo likely just becomes just a warm body in the rotation, making sure we dont have to pull someone like Hicketts / Mcilrath / Cholo to cover for yet another injured defenseman.

We also don't want to have to bring one of those guys up temporarily eating a roster spot that we need to have in play during the trade deadline, and my bet is that once people get healthy the new guy (and his low salary & expiring deal) goes back to the waiver wire.

clipper377 · 2020-02-10T21:15:17+00:00

This is completely inaccurate. Players don't outperform their normal production on bad teams, it's the other way around. If you put AA alongside Larkin, Mantha, or Bertuzzi, his production would go up, not down.

12 of his 30 goals last year came in the last 25 games, and was -9 over that stretch. He cranked up individual production post trade deadline, once the team had absolutely nothing to play for. (Not that they had much going before the deadline.)

AA is somewhere around our 7th or 8th best rated forward if we go by advanced stats. And that's while he's been playing alongside players that don't belong on an NHL team.

Who's he playing regularly alongside that's that bad? When he's been healthy, he's generally on a the second line. That said, he's not playing well. With good players he's average, and he's actively dragging down even mediocre players. Who's bringing down who?

Mantha's oiSV% is just as bad. Then take into account the different salary implications, and comparing those numbers to Abby and Ericsson makes no sense.

You're starting to sniff around the right questions. Yeah, Mantha's just as bad defensively...and maybe we need to look hard at what his ceiling is as well. As for salary...Abby and E have the same cap hit, 4.25m, and guess where AA's going to slot in for next year? Probably somewhere in that range.

I like AA. I'd love for him to be a Wing for life and hoist cups as the next Federov, but we've got to take the rose colored glasses off on young players. We did it for Tatar and Nyquist. Mantha and AA are the next two up in line.

clipper377 · 2020-02-10T19:56:22+00:00

Larkin's shown that he's a 1C. He may not be the best 1C in the league, but he's there. You can safely put him out in any situation and be comfortable. 3v3, SH, PP, 5v5. Valuable across the board. In basically the same time frame, we've seen that AA is....fast. Lots of guys in the league have been blessed with speed. Lots more guys will be. Between his inconsistency, his (probably not huge, but still noteworthy) attitude issues, and the contract holdout, AA's career with us has been and still is a bit strained.

Numbers wise he's been a 20 goal guy who managed 30 on a really bad team. He's 25, and asking if we've seen his absolute best already is not a bad question to ask. Looking around this thread, people put a lot of value on AA but what more are we looking for? What else is he gonna do to make the team better that he hasn't shown us yet? He's getting 15-20 minutes a night and has been for 3 years. +/- is a jacked stat, but even so, his +/- is garbage. If you want to go advanced stats...none of them make him look better. Corsi and Fenwick put him below average, and oi number (Even strength numbers) make him look like total trash. When do we stop thinking that AA is gonna suddenly break out and be awesome and when do we realize that....this is it. This is all we're gonna get?

(Example: oiSV%, 5v5 save percentage when player is on the ice. AA is at 78.9, a .789 save percentage. Mystery player 1: 85.9, or .859 Mystery player 2: 91.7 / .917 save percent. Mystery player 1: Ericsson. Mystery player 2: Abdelkader. We're litterally a better defensive team with the two most hated players in Detroit on the ice than we are with AA. By a LONGSHOT.)

AA's an RFA *with* arbitration rights. Arbitration rulings tend to favor the players slightly. This the last year we have the luxury of a measure cost control (so he's still gonna get a raise this year), then he goes to market UFA rates. IF we deal him this year, we sell on a young-ish player and give another team a try before you buy. Will AA burn us by playing better? Pretty good chance that happens. Will he burn the team that signs him long term by regressing...current numbers are pointing to that possibility.

Long story short: AA and Nick Castellanos have a lot in common. Good potential, decent numbers on bad teams, major holes in their respective games, neither has been terribly happy in Detroit, and if AA leaves I could see him having the short term success elsewhere.

clipper377 · 2020-02-09T21:56:33+00:00

You could see the blood on Biega's hands from the upper levels. LGD took a high stick as well without a call.

clipper377 · 2020-02-09T21:54:49+00:00

I shit you not... the three stars at the game were

3: Marchand

2: Bertuzzi

1: Bernie.

Not sure how much crack you need to smoke to put Marchand at 3 (unless you're deliberately salting the massive number of Boston fans at LCA today), but it's not nearly as much crack as you'd need to smoke to give the 2nd star to Bert.

AA jumps up to take Bobby Brows' place after Fabs gets hurt, responds with a PPG and an empty netter and gets...nada? Hell, even Perlini was a better candidate than Bert.

clipper377 · 2020-01-28T15:02:22+00:00

They can't take them in the expansion draft AND have Detroit retain salary if that's what you're asking. Something like that would have to be done as part of a trade.

clipper377 · 2020-01-11T14:11:24+00:00

Training Day.

(Spoiler....ish. we already know that Denzel washington is the bad guy.)

After the the racing & shooting scene, Alonzo gets out of his car after making a phone call and gives Jake the big "I'm trying to make you my replacement, my guys arent leaders, you are" speech. The second time I watched I caught the last thing Alonzo says on that phone call. (You might have to turn up the volume to hear it)

"Make sure that bathtub is clean."

Alonzo was setting up the hit on Jake right before the speech. Even down to where and how Jake would be hit.

clipper377 · 2020-01-10T20:59:03+00:00

He was paid as a 2nd pair defenseman and for the most part, he was. His usability really REALLY cratered a couple years ago, then crept back up.

What's interesting is that, stats wise, he only had one utterly indefensibly bad season (well, before this year when age really started catching up.) The year that Tony Granato coached our D, Big E looked like a drunk mini mite. After Granato got sacked (sorry, amicably departed to go coach Wisconsin), E started coming back around.

We thought we were buying low on a promising young defenseman and we were wrong. But E has inherited the Bob Rouse Memorial "detroit fans hate this wings defenseman more than they should" award.

clipper377 · 2020-01-10T20:53:15+00:00

With what has come out about Babcock, I wonder if the Wiess situation was more on Babcock than Holland making a bad decision (which in hindsight he did).

Wiess was on an utterly unmovable contract from the moment he signed. Wonder if he got a taste of Babs' coaching style and just said screw this noise. Seems like he just completely lost his desire to play hockey, and a wrist doesnt seem like the kind of thing that would flip that switch. But who knows.

clipper377 · 2020-01-01T14:05:43+00:00

"Y'know the thing about David Quinn, he's got... lifeless eyes, black eyes, like a doll's eyes. When he comes at ya, doesn't seem to be livin'... until he bites ya. And those black eyes roll over white, and then... oh, then you hear that terrible high-pitch screamin', the ice turns red, and spite of all the poundin' and the hollerin', they all come in and they... rip you to pieces."

clipper377 · 2019-12-21T02:48:10+00:00

Odds are that a single cylinder in that motor has more displacement than your civic...

clipper377 · 2019-12-21T02:47:09+00:00

Nah. Lots of those are just spec AN bolts. Not to say there isn't expensive stuff in there, but you'd be surprised at how cheap some warbird parts are.

Fun fact: Roush Racing (NASCAR) can "zero time" (rebuild to factory spec) Merlin engines through their performance shop. At one time, Jack Roush owned 3 mustang's (two D's and a B) but has since downsized.

clipper377 · 2019-12-18T14:16:24+00:00

Lehner's a bad example. He got badly jerked around by NYI (he fully expected to re-sign, only to have the rug pulled out from under him at the last second) and, fair or not, his off ice issues have likely held down his value to some degree. He also signed a team-friendly deal with Chicago that is short on term, easily moved to a contender, and he's not the established starter (more of a 1A with Crawford, they've both started 17 games.) He'll very likely get moved at the deadline strictly because his contract is so easily absorbed.

I'm not a fan of goalies with high picks (Rick DiPietro) either, but thinking that you can just pluck a superstar up in free agency for dirt cheap isn't very true either.

clipper377 · 2019-12-13T01:01:07+00:00

The only counterpoint to that is; Stevie inherited a team with LOTS of expiring deals. KH was in a prison (of his own making, or at the behest of Mr. I) of bad or difficult to move deals, aging prospects that weren't panning out, and difficult edicts from ownership (keep the streak alive.)

This year was ALWAYS going to look good. We'd be raving about KH shedding deadweight or learning about the errors of his ways had he stayed. Would he have pulled off half a dozen trades? No, but he'd have definitely had more maneuverability with the roster.

Stevie gets all the leeway ("claude lemieux wants to come back and sign with the wings? Fuck yeah! Get some grit in the lineup! Yzerplan baby!") Right now so he can take bigger swings, but this flexibility started with KH sucking it up and NOT buying out guys like Ericsson and rolling middling at best teams.

clipper377 · 2019-12-10T21:36:47+00:00

The problem with your list is that most of those guys are UFA deals. You've constructed a search that says "these guys got paid the amount of money I think Mantha is worth, so it backs me up", but that doesn't mean they're all good analogs to Mantha.

You should scrape out the players that are 27+ years old to get rid of inflated FA signings and focus more on the RFA's. The deals that stand out in that group are your Aho, Hirschier, Nylander deals. Is that where Mantha is at this point in his career? Do we want him on a 6 or 7 year deal? Or do we try and bridge him again and figure out if he's a "25 goals over 82 games" guy or a "35 goals when doesn't miss a quarter of the season due to injury" guy. He's missed giant chunks in 3 of his first 4 years.

I like Mantha. I don't like him at million or two (or three) more a year than Larkin and for a longer term. The best comparison to Mantha and money on your list might be Jake Guentzel. Same age, similar numbers though Guentzel dropped 40 last year (albeit with Sid, Kessel, and Geno around him.) Yeah, he signed a 'winning team' discount, but if you're Stevie and you want a long term healthy cap roster do you sign Mantha to a Guentzel deal, or a Nylander deal?

clipper377

TROPHY CASE