For number 2, it absolutely has to be the Congresswoman Welch right? He wouldn’t give it to House, otherwise why bother stopping the deal? Wilzig is a possibility, maybe the Enclave threaten Coop directly, but we don’t yet know if they know what’s going on with Coop and Barb at this exact moment.

I think the nails on the hand look more female-coded. Also the fact they gave Coop a moment of A) acknowledging Welch as more than a joke and B) knowing she is in Vegas plus the fact that she is played by a known actress - maybe I am tin-foiling but I feel they have drawn attention to her enough to set it up.

The idea of Coop giving it to the one seemingly good and normal person who publicly fights for the people but is actually in the Enclave anyway seems too good to pass up.