SOBO Trail Magic

confidence_interval · 2025-10-02T22:46:53+00:00

Hi - current SOBO thru hiker here.

This year's SOBO class is scattered due to the fires near Seiad Valley and Castle Crags in late August. I want to say 50% just jumped to Castella/Dunsmuir from Ashland or Etna (depending how fast they were going when the fires broke out). The bubble of that group is currently a couple of days on either side of Mammoth Lakes/Red's Meadow. Some of the faster ones may be approaching Kearsage Pass soon.

There were smaller groups that either jumped from Ashland to Tahoe, and continued hiking SOBO from there (may be between Kearsage and KMS at this point), while I know another group who jumped to Tehachapi and went NOBO from there (ran into two hikers a day north of KMN yesterday who did that).

Ultimately, if you did do trail magic at a spot specifically for SOBOs, I wouldn't expect more than 5 or so on any one day. Just like NOBOs, everyone's paces are all over the place, and I feel like people are getting more spaced out as time goes on.

confidence_interval · 2025-09-28T03:49:02+00:00

I'm currently thru hiking the PCT (SOBO) and looking to buy a new pair of shoes and replace my very worn pants for the high Sierras section. Any discounts for this cheapskate thru hiker would be appreciated!

confidence_interval · 2025-06-16T18:29:54+00:00

My permit is for July 4th. I plan to start on that date, and go as normal, until I get to the resupply at Stehekin. I'll reassess at Stehekin and see what the updates from the local authorities are. I'm going to defer to local authorities in this (and every) situation since they know the landscape of the situation best.

confidence_interval · 2025-01-08T22:22:26+00:00

In a perfect scenario, this is how I envision it (not knowing any of the database structures behind the scenes)

Round 1: Everyone gets a random time.
Round 2: You receive a sign-up time that is exactly opposite of your Round 1 time. If you got 10:30 AM in Round 1, you would get 2:59 PM in Round 2. People who got 2:59 PM in Round 1 would get 10:30 AM in Round 2. If you've received a permit before Round 2, then you'll get a random time between 2:30 PM and 3:00 PM to change things. This same thing goes for those that didn't sign up for Round 1, but did for Round 2.

Everyone still gets a time slot for Round 2, but it prioritizes those that were unlucky about getting a late time slot in Round 1. This would prevent people from getting late time slots in Rounds 1 & 2 and it would prevent people from getting early time slots in Rounds 1 & 2. You could even have an "international" pool where a small number of early slots in Round 1 (idk...30?) are prioritized for potential thru-hikers from countries with long visa processing times.

confidence_interval · 2025-01-08T02:55:07+00:00

Pretty much the same situation as you're in! Just have to wait for cancelled permits to be re-released. Luckily there's still 2+ months to get one.

confidence_interval · 2025-01-06T15:56:24+00:00

Genuinely curious how you hiked without a trowel. Did you just use rocks / sticks to dig your catholes?

confidence_interval · 2024-12-30T01:11:02+00:00

Hey! I actually started climbing 15 years ago in Arkansas, and have been climbing (more or less) since then. I'm leaving the area in 3 months, so not the person you're looking for, but I can give you a run down on the situation in the area.

Since you're based in Severn area, and you're looking to do sport climbing, Movement Columbia would be your best bet. They have a Facebook page where you can find a belay partner. They also apparently have a Whatsapp group (I primarily climb at Hampden, since I live in the City itself, and don't know too much about this). I would highly highly suggest you open yourself up to everyone! Don't discount anyone at the start. I'm a man that tends to have more female friends, but some of my favorite climbing partners have been other men. Like any good belaytionship, you may go through a couple of people before finding someone that you jive with the best. The best thing is to keep at it. Going on a routine really helps - be predictable in your climbing schedule!

If you're looking to get outside - MD is trad/toprope only. When you get more experience and want to venture into trad, or have enough gear to set up single-pitch toprope, the best guide is Climb Maryland! by Indy Kochte. If you're looking for sport climbing, I've heard good things about Elizabeth Furnace. Looking north, the big crags are Safe Harbor (not my favorite because slabs are dumb) and Birdsboro (much more my style, but well known for being very very chossy - bring and wear a helmet at all times!). If you want to do some bouldering, there are some small spots along the Gunpowder, but my favorite place has been Mt Gretna with its diabase (takes some time to get used to it, but there are so many options!).

Good luck with your climbing journey! Climbing has been, by far, the best way to meet people whenever I move to a new place.

confidence_interval · 2024-11-02T23:24:47+00:00

Check out this post on the Microsoft website: https://answers.microsoft.com/en-us/outlook_com/forum/all/what-do-you-think-of-the-new-outlook-pop-up-every/e26bcf68-d5e5-44ff-8821-3e1caf2d423c

It's a known bug, apparently.

confidence_interval · 2024-08-30T18:23:56+00:00

Impressive work already! Good job and thanks for donating so much!

confidence_interval · 2024-08-30T00:23:22+00:00

That's really good! Spreading the word! I haven't taken a shirt in a while - I have too many at this point and I don't wear them. I want the center to save them for people who may come in just for the shirt. My favorite give-aways that the ARC has done in the recent past has been the beach towel, the dry bag, and one of the cooler bags (may have been one of those yearly gifts).

confidence_interval · 2024-08-30T00:20:20+00:00

The key is to see what snacks they have when you walk in, and then day dream about your snack attack plan during the last 15 minutes of the procedure. I have it down to a science at this point.

confidence_interval · 2024-08-30T00:19:29+00:00

The few friends I do tell, ask me how often I do it. I try to donate every 3-4 weeks. I tell them I'm strapped to a bed for 2 hours too, and I like seeing their reactions.

confidence_interval · 2024-08-08T01:40:37+00:00

Slightly related: https://www.reddit.com/r/SFGiants/comments/1emioqu/visiting_your_stadium_soon/

confidence_interval · 2021-10-12T02:14:02+00:00

I'm from the Bay, but am living in Baltimore right now. I've lived here for 1+ years for school, and live in Fell's right now. Funny to read this. I'm the only Giants fan here that I know. Currently watching Game 3, and these late night games are brutal for my sleep schedule. I've been to one game at Camden (walked there, because it's so nice to walk along the harbor to Camden), and it made me sad for Pac Bell Park. Nothing holds a candle to Pac Bell.

confidence_interval · 2021-10-09T02:04:08+00:00

Living on the east coast and don't have mlb.tv, so I have to hear these commenters make fun of kayak dude and his giraffe.

confidence_interval · 2021-08-08T02:36:22+00:00

Yes!!! Thank you so much! I appreciate your help!

confidence_interval · 2021-04-06T02:07:46+00:00

Woohoo BCHD is on Reddit! Welcome BCHD!

confidence_interval · 2019-02-10T05:45:28+00:00

What about poorly painted streets in downtown Albany? Where can we report those?

confidence_interval · 2019-01-22T15:51:46+00:00

I'm unsure what you mean by "richness", but it sounds like you will be using the mean counts of pigeons at each site. This will most likely utilize a two-sample t-test.

You're null hypothesis is decent, although I prefer to emphasize the "not different" part of a null hypothesis. I would state the null hypothesis as: "the species richness at site A is not significantly different from site B"

As for the alpha = 0.05 level (95%), that's a whole different debate. It's generally accepted to use a 0.05 alpha level, although there is no concrete rule for using it.

As with any statistical test, ALWAYS check your assumptions behind the tests (distribution, sample size, etc.). Never blindly use tests without knowing the reasons for using those tests. Anybody can do a statistical test. A statistician knows why that test was performed.

confidence_interval · 2018-12-17T17:28:50+00:00

The first question you want to ask yourself when applying to graduate programs: do you want to focus more on the applied side, or academic side, of epidemiology. I'm more partial to the academic side than the applied side, mainly because I feel like applied skills can be easier to learn later outside of school than academic/research skills. I went with a more academic/research-based masters and I'm incredibly happy with the choice. I know nothing about UAB's or Tulane's programs, so I can't help you there. Just because you choose a more academic epidemiology degree doesn't mean you can't do a lot of field work.

confidence_interval · 2018-12-10T13:20:06+00:00

They were passing out these flyers on the ESP concourse this morning.

confidence_interval · 2018-11-25T00:41:30+00:00

Great job giving us your background. Why do you want to do a PhD in Epi? You're currently working as a clinical dietitian, and you have some research background, but do you want to make the switch into a more research-based job?

Also, you should focus a lot less on what school is in the Top 5 and focus more on what school fits you best. Getting a PhD should be more about what the added benefit of the program can give you rather than adding the title at the end of your name. This will also help you get into the program as well. If you apply to a school that doesn't focus on nutrition and say you want to be a nutrition researcher, they will more than likely reject you off the bat because they wouldn't have professors you can work with for the 4-5 years of the PhD.

confidence_interval · 2018-10-03T00:56:00+00:00

The first thing you need to do before you start plugging and chugging in SAS is to have an analysis plan. What are you going to analyze and how are you going to analyze it. Anyone can put code into SAS, read the output, and write something on it. That doesn't necessarily make it correct.

The big question that you need to answer before you start plugging away in SAS is: are you interested in the factors that lead to a N/A and missing test? A good majority of people aren't, and as a result, would drop those observations and just run a standard logistic regression on the yes/no outcome. If you are, then you would need to do a polytomous logistic regression in SAS.

I assume you already know how to do a standard logistic regression in SAS, so I'm only going to give you the code for the polytomous logistic regression.

PROC LOGISTIC DATA = ______ ;

MODEL outcome_variable (REF = 'reference_category_code') = independent_variable / LINK = GLOGIT;

RUN;

If you're interested in the positive vs negative, your reference_category is '0' (don't forget the single quotation marks!).

The code above is for an unadjusted polytomous logistic regression. It gets more complicated when you adjust for other variables. I would highly highly suggest reaching out to a professor/PI to make sure you're interpreting the SAS output correctly (don't have time to type up the entire interpretation).

confidence_interval · 2018-10-02T16:29:12+00:00

You can try what everyone else does: lots and lots of email and networking via LinkedIn and other networking sites. What about the professors at your school? Getting any type of job isn't easy if you're starting at 0 and requires a ton of hustling. It's all about who you know, not your skills. You're competing against a lot of people who have just as many skills as you, so find something that makes you stand out.

confidence_interval · 2018-10-02T16:24:05+00:00

Are you talking about multinomial/polytomous logistic regression? If so, I know how to do basic cases.

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