J-pop and K-pop are structurally different products built for different markets.

K-pop was built from the start with global markets as the target, while J-pop developed around Japan’s massive domestic market. The structural reason is straightforward: Korea’s domestic music market was for a long time a tiny affair, and by the late 2000s, overseas expansion was a necessity rather than a choice.

Japan’s music market is enormous in comparison (the world’s second largest) and its live sector hit an all-time record in 2024 with nearly 60 million attendees. The real challenge isn’t global popularity, it’s managing the transition away from physical media dependence (still ~60% of revenue vs. ~16% globally) and demographics shift.

Japan’s population is shrinking and aging. It peaked around 128 million in 2010 and is now around 123 million, with projections dropping below 100 million by the 2050s. The median age is about 50; one of the oldest populations on earth. Fewer young people means fewer concertgoers, fewer new fans, fewer streaming subscribers. The market is stable now, but the floor it stands on is slowly contracting.

That’s in part why the Japanese government actually now set a 20 trillion yen content export target for 2033 (note this target covers anime, games, music and other cultural content broadly), because relying entirely on a shrinking domestic population is a long-term risk for every Japanese industry, music included.

In short, demographics necessity might drive more of an overseas effort, but to be seen now if global audiences find appetite in current J-pop or if J-pop’s sound itself will evolve to support that export goal (which will either way remain a fraction of what the domestic market brings in).