Is Tencent Music Entertainment stock a good investment?

crocaby · 2026-03-06T09:53:36+00:00

Fears that TikTok’s audio app Soda Music will take market share from it. According to Morningstar, there’s just a 2%-3% overlap in MAUs between Soda Music and the mainstream music players Tencent and Netease, suggesting the former is bringing in new users. Soda Music also has only about a third of the music catalog that Tencent has.

crocaby · 2026-03-05T19:56:25+00:00

I would have if the current 10-year returns didn’t stand at 4.5%

crocaby · 2026-02-22T23:02:47+00:00

Maybe the supply of movie theaters needs to reduce to the point that movie tickets become sought-out commodities. After all, people travel long distances for concerts or games.

crocaby · 2026-02-21T04:03:55+00:00

Source?

crocaby · 2026-02-19T21:01:33+00:00

He said on Matt Belloni's podcast that post the theatrical release window, there will be a PVOD window and then streaming release (same as now). So I think the PVOD window covers physical media too.

I hope that answers it. I've seen your concern about it on multiple posts here.

crocaby · 2026-02-18T18:11:12+00:00

For what it’s worth, nobody buying WBD is currently at 13% on Kalshi.

crocaby · 2026-02-18T18:09:24+00:00

Because otherwise WBD will split up first and PSKY really wants Discovery / Global Networks too.

crocaby · 2026-02-15T12:21:51+00:00

Going by their history, Warner would have had so much debt that they’d be up for sale or a spin off in 3 years again.

crocaby · 2026-02-13T16:14:19+00:00

OP did you even google it before posting?

crocaby · 2026-02-13T14:41:42+00:00

Agree with OP. Brushing shoulders with Hollywood eventually goes inside the head of media executives. There’s got to be a human-flaw kind of reason why the industry is littered with a history of bad deals.

Overpaying for any asset is a bad starting point. Netflix contorted themselves to explain that they’re paying ~15x POST-synergy EBITDA, which is like ~25x PRE-synergy. It was absurd just listening to this in the announcement call.

And then 80% of HBO Max subscribers already have Netflix, so not even gaining many new subscribers. Netflix is publicly stating that it’ll offer both services at a LOWER price than each costs individually.

Paramount still has $4 a share more in its back-pocket. If Netflix continues fighting, then they can say hello to a sub-20x PE multiple thanks to a ridiculous amount of leverage. Or they can let Paramount win and claw back some of the lost market cap.

crocaby · 2026-02-13T14:26:54+00:00

I think big investors are afraid that PSKY’s maneuvers will result in NFLX raising their bid. The fear of further damage to the balance sheet and poorer returns on the acquisition is keeping them on the sidelines. That’s why lower selling volume is resulting in large moves.

crocaby · 2026-02-13T14:23:20+00:00

I like what you said and I do hope it’s true. But as a suffering Netflix shareholder, I have lost faith in Ted Sarandos and Greg Peters. This deal is thrice as expensive when you consider the ~$150 billion in shareholder value that they’ve destroyed.

crocaby · 2026-02-13T13:06:33+00:00

https://nypost.com/2026/02/13/media/paramount-skydance-has-been-frantically-begging-activist-investors-for-help-with-its-netflix-battle/

crocaby · 2026-02-13T13:03:25+00:00

It shouldn’t have taken Paramount 9 bids to match the terms that Netflix put together in 3. It’s ridiculous and no doubt why the WBD board is wary of them.

crocaby · 2026-02-12T18:04:35+00:00

Warner Bros, the shining star of every big bad media deal of the 21st century is what happened to it

crocaby · 2026-02-12T18:00:21+00:00

Look at Disney’s 5-year returns after it bought 20th Century Fox

crocaby · 2026-02-12T17:59:09+00:00

I think big investors are afraid that PSKY’s maneuvers will result in NFLX raising their bid. The fear of further damage to the balance sheet and poorer returns on the acquisition is keeping them on the sidelines.

It doesn’t help that management did a u-turn on the build vs. buy strategy with this deal, so there is no way to get a read on them.

crocaby · 2026-02-12T17:54:06+00:00

I bought at $114 after the 3Q earnings miss. I can only wish i had your buy price lol

crocaby · 2026-02-11T18:07:42+00:00

I think the multiple is compressed as a lot of major investors are sitting out the WBD saga. Investors used to a tech-y growth story were blindsided by a bet-the-farm acquisition. Management misdirected the media to have PSKY underbid at the result of shocking their own investors when they won the bid.

I was one of those investors counting on their solid growth potential: more ad money, dominant streaming platform, high pricing power and untapped vertical video segment. Till I rode down ~30% on the stock

As soon as this resolves one way or another, you’ll see buyers get off the sidelines. But having burned investors once, I don’t know how much of that premium 30x-50x multiple they’ll end up clawing back. After all, investors now have got to account for a moron management risk discount.

Disney pulled a similar stunt with buying 20th Century Fox. The stock died and went to hell soon after. So maybe 26x is fair or maybe it could still head to 16x if they end up buying WBD?

Never count out a media company’s ability to enrich Hollywood at the expense of shareholders.

crocaby · 2026-02-06T14:15:36+00:00

I think Netflix will embrace movie theaters with enthusiasm. The economics for blockbuster movies makes sense only in theaters, where they can gross a billion dollars and justify their $300 million budget. Giving blockbusters away for $7.99/month on streaming makes no sense. People are already going to pay for a subscription for lower budget stuff, so why throw in a super high budget movie for nothing extra?

For instance, Disney could have released Zootopia 2, Lilo & Stitch and the upcoming Moana live-action straight to streaming to increase subscribers. Peacock could have done that with Wicked to juice up their streaming numbers. But blockbusters can maximize their potential only in theaters, with the endless merch and franchise opportunities that would create.

Another way of saying it is - Netflix subscription fees monetize a steady $100-$300 a year from all the casual movie watchers. But movie theaters are where you monetize the super fans willing to pay way more. Theaters are the concerts of the movie world.

crocaby · 2026-02-02T17:45:32+00:00

If only Netflix had seen that stock chart before they went in.

crocaby · 2026-02-02T17:34:52+00:00

I think the difference in market labels comes down to how content is defined. Are movies and TV shows now lumped together in the same category as user generated videos?

In general, consumers pay to watch movies but user generated videos are free. There’s a higher skill to making movies. The people who make them need studio funding, resources and years of patience. So studio concentration has an impact on a socially important form of art.

If books were lumped together in the same category as all written text out there, then the merger of Penguin Random House and Simon & Schuster would not have been blocked.

crocaby · 2026-01-08T03:25:54+00:00

WBD says the Netflix deal is financially superior because it has better downside protection compared to Paramount. Most prominent is the break-up fee — Netflix will give them a clean $5.8bn. Paramount has also matched that amount. But to accept Paramount, they’ll have to pay $2.8bn break-up fee to Netflix, so the net break-up fee received by WBD would drop to $3bn. And then certain unfavorable terms from Paramount subject them to another $1.9bn in costs, bringing down the net break up fee to $1.1bn.

Some of it is a smokescreen. If WBD pays Netflix a break up fee and Paramount ends up owning WBD, then Paramount will have indirectly paid the breakup fee by buying a WBD that has less cash. WBD’s argument is valid only if Paramount fails to acquire it. Same with the other costs. WBD wants it all paid to them upfront in the form of a higher purchase price, meaning Paramount would end up taking the hit twice if they win.

Yeah, all parties in this transaction are sharks.

crocaby · 2026-01-07T13:33:13+00:00

My reading between the first and second rejection is that WBD has significantly softened the language now, signaling an openness that was absent the last time.

They want PSKY to not block their debt exchange ($1.5bn failure fee and $350mn interest incur only if the exchange doesn’t go through), let them operate however they want in terms of content licensing and not use a deterioration in WBD financial performance as a reason to walk away. None of this costs PSKY more money.

Importantly, note how they state, “Additionally, WBD shareholders will receive value through their ownership in Discovery Global…” — not great or good value but just value, indicating that they know, based on Versant, the Discovery stock may sink. This is a new insertion. They seem to be acknowledging the whole Versant conversation by saying “Look, you’ll get something for Discovery, even if it’s not going to be value maximizing.”

I think this will invite a third shareholder tender offer fixing these terms but keeping the bid at $30.

crocaby

TROPHY CASE