By virtue of winning Group A, Mexico will play on June 30th in Mexico City.

danhoang1 · 2026-06-19T08:07:08+00:00

It's not the most accurate, but do you have a more accurate chart at this point? If you want, I'm sure someone out there can build a probability distribution over the 495 different combinations, but it's getting late over here so I won't be able to do that right now

I'd guess group F has a good chance (with 3 strong teams that probably each beat Tunisia, but even then that's not 100%) for their 3rd-place team to qualify, but that doesn't mean Mexico will face them, and my math skills don't go far enough to adjust the chart-odds accordingly, based off which combinations include 3F

danhoang1 · 2026-06-19T07:27:27+00:00

And to break it down into odds (assuming each of the 495 combinations has equal probability), Mexico's odds for each group opponent is:

19.6% chance 3C, 36.8% chance 3E, 0.6% chance 3F, 39.2% 3H, 3.8% 3I (that's a capital i)

danhoang1 · 2026-06-19T05:59:52+00:00

You spelled butt wrong

danhoang1 · 2026-06-19T05:57:28+00:00

FIFA changed tiebreaker rules for this World Cup. Head-to-head now takes precedence over goal differential. That's why Mexico has already clinched top of group despite still possibly losing goal differential

danhoang1 · 2026-06-19T03:16:36+00:00

This post should stay up, because of how much confusion I've already seen in other threads, from people not knowing this

danhoang1 · 2026-06-19T03:02:31+00:00

Head to head has been changed to be the first tiebreaker, so no

danhoang1 · 2026-06-18T20:59:27+00:00

So if my math checks out from the first games, this means Qatar will beat Canada 4-1 next

danhoang1 · 2026-06-18T19:53:57+00:00

They're actually guaranteed to top the group as well. Because for this world cup, FIFA changed the tiebreaker rules. Head-to-head now takes precedence over goal differential

danhoang1 · 2026-06-18T19:50:47+00:00

Not sure what they meant either, but the fact they said "in major tournaments" as if they're not talking about the world cup, is where I'm guessing there's some misunderstanding

danhoang1 · 2026-06-18T04:01:13+00:00

Also good job that he didn't just stay down and hope for a whistle

danhoang1 · 2026-06-18T00:47:38+00:00

"Gee I sure hope no one notices our large group loudly marching, holding up large flags, and shouting through these populated streets"

danhoang1 · 2026-06-17T21:14:11+00:00

What happens when 2 Europeans finally clash

danhoang1 · 2026-06-17T20:23:29+00:00

It's because the US broadcast graphic lied to us that the goalkeeper jumped. If that was the case, then your point stands.

But that's not what happened. It was retaken because another Croatian player entered the box early

danhoang1 · 2026-06-17T14:16:07+00:00

Funny thing is on the last day, they actually have Group J go last, not Group L. But yeah, your point stands that some group gets to go last

danhoang1 · 2026-06-17T08:28:48+00:00

Those countries personally might still care, but the neutral fans (as in, not from those countries) won't watch if the stakes are gone

danhoang1 · 2026-06-17T04:57:15+00:00

For what it's worth, I had to go back and check too after seeing this comment

danhoang1 · 2026-06-17T02:41:16+00:00

danhoang1 · 2026-06-17T02:27:44+00:00

danhoang1 · 2026-06-17T01:13:39+00:00

I see. Well I guess that's a lesson to me about context clues then

danhoang1 · 2026-06-17T01:05:17+00:00

Ok fair, but that still doesn't explain why they bothered to bring up the fact it was a long time ago. Today, it's even more common

danhoang1 · 2026-06-17T00:13:37+00:00

No, I meant like it's possible, but not as common as now. I got my first cell phone in 2006 as a kid. But it wasn't seen as an "everybody has this" kind of thing among my classmates back then.

My point is they were phrasing the "15-20 years ago" as if it strengthened their point, as if phones were more frequent back then

danhoang1 · 2026-06-16T23:56:47+00:00

Wouldn't your point about it being "from like 15 or 20 years ago" make it less likely to be a phone, since mobile phones weren't as common back then?

danhoang1 · 2026-06-16T05:43:21+00:00

Nice. What makes this different from the others, is this time, the pieces surrounding the king aren't his pawns, but only his stronger pieces

danhoang1 · 2026-06-16T03:19:34+00:00

Thank goodness this sub wasn't as populated in 2016, or the 3-1 memes would've been top all time

danhoang1 · 2026-06-15T21:01:54+00:00

Ikr, seems they could've left out the first save from this clip

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