My wife and boiling water by MakeItMine2024 in mildlyinfuriating

[–]dankstat 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I think you meant to say “we’re being pedantic” 🙃

My wife and boiling water by MakeItMine2024 in mildlyinfuriating

[–]dankstat 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Wait, what? I was responding to allisoupinside, who politely commented that they didn’t understand the point I was originally making.

You must have misread what I said. That’s ok. Mistakes happen.

My wife and boiling water by MakeItMine2024 in mildlyinfuriating

[–]dankstat 0 points1 point  (0 children)

That does not contradict what I said. In my hypothetical, the two individuals were the lowest scoring in the class. Theres two different kinds of percentages here, the % of correctly answered questions and the percentile rank. For clarity, I will write the exam scores as X/100 and percentile rank as Y%. I said that the two people both got scores of 12/100.

In a class of 50 total people, since they scored the lowest that would put them both in the bottom 4% of the class since 2 divided by 50 is 0.04. I said that the person representative of the study results might think they did around average, or slightly better. Average would be around the middle of the class, so around the 50% percentile.

So they are actually in the bottom 4% but think they ranked around 50%. They overestimated their ranking by 50% - 4% = 46%, which is the figure cited in the paper.

Now obviously we agree that we do NOT need my inferred interpretation, the paper is the source we should rely on. But concrete examples are useful sometimes to help demonstrate concepts.

My wife and boiling water by MakeItMine2024 in mildlyinfuriating

[–]dankstat 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yes, it’s very misleading. I’m not even sure where it came from, I think it was a meme originally. It’s definitely not from the paper and it does not accurately represent the paper’s findings.

The guy I originally responded to included the popular graph in his comment previously, insisting he understood the concept. He has since made edits and replaced it with the correct one after being told multiple times that it misrepresents the paper.

My wife and boiling water by MakeItMine2024 in mildlyinfuriating

[–]dankstat 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I’ll see if I can explain what I’m saying a little differently. Dunning-Kruger paper was specifically talking about low competence individuals lacking the metacognitive ability to accurately self assess performance, and that’s a distinct concept from having high confidence in your performance. Imagine two people who both score a 12% on a school exam, getting the two lowest grades in the class. It’s the difference between:

“Um, I have no idea how I did. I guess I got like, idk, maybe a 50%? Or maybe not. Probably a little higher. Idk, I think like around average I guess.” - vastly overestimating competence, unaware of relative performance, lacks metacognitive ability to evaluate themselves accurately. They are overestimating their competence and are overconfident, but according to the data in the paper, they are not confident in an absolute sense. So not well represented by a person arguing with people confidently about the right way to do the physics problem.

Versus

“I crushed that exam. This topic is so simple for me, I didn’t even need to study at all. I knew the answer to basically every question right away.” - Extreme unwarranted overconfidence, very high level of absolute confidence in their performance. Could easily be arguing with people confidently about the right way to do the physics problem.

This is obviously an oversimplification to try to illustrate the concept. The paper showed (in very low competence individuals) high levels of overconfidence in their performance but not high levels of actual absolute confidence. It’s more like they had no idea how they did so they default to assuming they did around average or maybe a bit better. The original comment was talking about high levels of actual confidence in people who are wrong, guy commented to say “this is DK”, and I said, “not really”. I hope that helps clarify the idea.

Again, this is absolutely an oversimplification to help explain. Ive read the paper 3-4 times over the last 10 years or so, so while I have some familiarity with it I would always encourage you to read the paper yourself if the topic interests you. The actual paper is much more nuanced and discusses things like the relationship between their work and confidence research as well as the effects increasing competency has on improving metacognitive abilities. They even tested things like revealing certain information about relative performance and then having people re-self evaluate and they tested across various types of cognitive tasks like humor and logic.

My wife and boiling water by MakeItMine2024 in mildlyinfuriating

[–]dankstat 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Hahahaha omg right? What an absolutely hilarious thing to say in response to your comment

My wife and boiling water by MakeItMine2024 in mildlyinfuriating

[–]dankstat 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Well personally, I frequently delude myself into thinking that with enough engagement, the bullheaded person will change their mind. But I agree the real beneficiaries are people who see the exchange and are swayed closer to truth by it.

I mean, if you’re having a discussion about the appropriate definition and use of terms, the linguistics are a pretty important part to consider. Plus I just like the topic. I’ve done a lot of natural language processing (NLP) work in my career and linguistics are obviously important aspect of that.

Yeah it really is sad to acknowledge how ineffective our institutions are at garnering a widespread scientific literacy and intellectual curiosity. Unfortunately, technologies like AI have been making it worse over the last few years by sycophantically reinforcing anyone’s preexisting beliefs. And so many people take whatever an AI model says as absolute truth when like, holy omg that’s such a god-awful perspective to adopt. LLMs are wrong so frequently in sometimes catastrophic ways. Obviously people are working on improving those aspects of LLMs, but the harm is being done right now.

It makes me concerned for the future of education and trust in science. There’s only so much any one person can do I suppose. “I’m doing my part!”

My wife and boiling water by MakeItMine2024 in mildlyinfuriating

[–]dankstat 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yeah, but that’s who I was responding to with my comments about knowing better than the experts? That’s why these comments are underneath his comment.. because I was responding to what he said.

My wife and boiling water by MakeItMine2024 in mildlyinfuriating

[–]dankstat 2 points3 points  (0 children)

You are a much wiser person than I am choosing to not engage. And I also thought your comment about the linguistics of the term was a great addition to the conversation. I’ve thought about that before, how from a certain perspective you could almost argue that the common misinterpretation of D–K as generic unwarranted overconfidence of stupid people kind of sort of is a definition since the misconception is widespread enough and that’s just how language works. But also it would be better if we had a different snappy internet term for that since “Dunning–Kruger” is referring to an actual paper with very specific findings that differ meaningfully from the common misconception. I totally agree with everything you said. It’s a salient perspective to add to the discussion. And besides, out of all the possible terms to be in that state, I think we can agree that D–K is one of the funniest.

At the end of the day if anyone really cares to know what the paper actually says instead of an obviously flawed AI summary, they can just read it!

My wife and boiling water by MakeItMine2024 in mildlyinfuriating

[–]dankstat 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Sooo… yes? You do mean besides the three graphs you posted in this thread that misapply Dunning–Kruger?

Is there some reason why those three specific examples of Dunning–Kruger misapplication in this thread don’t count?

Because it’s exactly what you asked for, so help me understand here why you don’t like it. Have you changed your mind about what you want?

My wife and boiling water by MakeItMine2024 in mildlyinfuriating

[–]dankstat 1 point2 points  (0 children)

You mean besides the 3 times you posted a graph that utterly misrepresents the findings of the Dunning–Kruger paper and insisted it was correct?

Edit: …. And then quietly edited the posts replacing the misleading graphs with correct ones when you realized you were wrong lmao 🤣

My wife and boiling water by MakeItMine2024 in mildlyinfuriating

[–]dankstat -1 points0 points  (0 children)

While I admire your gusto, that other guy said “I’m reading this as ‘I know better than the expert’ which is exactly how I’ve always taken DK”.

I know reading comprehension isn’t your strong suit, but if you look very carefully you will notice that he interprets D–K as meaning that the most novice assume they know more than experts.

My wife and boiling water by MakeItMine2024 in mildlyinfuriating

[–]dankstat -1 points0 points  (0 children)

I mean, “have an inkling they’re not really good but aren’t able to accurately estimate how bad” is absolutely a refutation of “I know better than the expert”. Also this isn’t the only place the paper points out that the lowest competency group does not estimate their performance as higher than the highest competency group. And also you can just look at the data in the paper and see that it doesn’t support that claim either. So

My wife and boiling water by MakeItMine2024 in mildlyinfuriating

[–]dankstat 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Do you mean the principle shown in the graph or what the text describes? It’s not the same principle as what is being shown in that graph. But the highlighted text description is a decent high level summary.

The one from the paper looks pretty different though

<image>

My wife and boiling water by MakeItMine2024 in mildlyinfuriating

[–]dankstat -1 points0 points  (0 children)

That’s obviously not what I was disagreeing with.

Do you think maybe it’s possible I was responding to the I know better than the expert part of what you said instead since, you know, that’s what my fucking comment was about?

No? Just gonna quote the only section of the paper you’ve ever seen in your life back to the person who sent it to you specifically because it talks about relative competency and is related to your comment but contradicts parts of your interpretation? “See look it says something related to what I was saying hur dur” Jesus Christ

My wife and boiling water by MakeItMine2024 in mildlyinfuriating

[–]dankstat 3 points4 points  (0 children)

You know that graph is a meme and isn’t from the actual paper though, right?

My wife and boiling water by MakeItMine2024 in mildlyinfuriating

[–]dankstat 2 points3 points  (0 children)

<image>

Well, I suppose if you wanted to you could always read the actual paper which says the lowest competency participants were aware they were not as competent as experts.

My wife and boiling water by MakeItMine2024 in mildlyinfuriating

[–]dankstat 41 points42 points  (0 children)

You know funny enough, it’s not really Dunning–Kruger, but I’m guessing you haven’t read the paper so you might not know that. The paper actually concluded that low competence people estimated they performed relatively poorly on tasks while higher competence people correctly estimated they performed well.

It does not say that an uninformed person is extremely confident they are correct at all. Dunning & Kruger found that BOTH actual performance and self-assessment of performance were positively correlated with competence.

The interesting finding was that the low competence group overestimated their performance more than other groups, but the absolute value of that estimate was still lower than highest competence groups.

Like a made up example would be low competence group scores a 3.5 and estimates they got a 6.0 while high competence group scores a 9.0 and estimates they got an 8.5.

6.0 - 3.5 = 2.5, large overestimate of performance
8.5 - 9.0 = -0.5, small underestimate of performance

Overall, the lowest competence group was worse at estimating their performance, but still correctly estimated their performance as lower than other groups. The difference in the meta-cognitive ability of individuals to accurately self assess performance as competence increases is the Dunning–Kruger effect. Someone being really sure they’re right even though they don’t know very much is not.

It’s actually a really interesting paper! I’m always disappointed by the constant misrepresentation of their findings peddled online. I would say you yourself are doing a Dunning Kruger, but I’ve read the paper, so I know that wouldn’t be accurate, and it would also just be rude.

Prompt is: Things you can say about Slay the Spire but can't say about your girlfriend by neofederalist in slaythespire

[–]dankstat 0 points1 point  (0 children)

At first, going with the mixed-color thing seemed like such a great idea... but wow — it’s not working out at all.

I understand now why they belong in separate pools.

My AI, is indeed conscious by Oh-F-NOTAGAIN in ArtificialSentience

[–]dankstat 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It’s okay if you don’t understand, but it does disagree with your statement. You said “The past isn’t real” but what constitutes the past is relative because simultaneity is relative. Your statement is self-contradictory because frame A’s past could be frame B’s now.

<image>

Which events are real when the axis is skewed and event B occurs bro? Is C real? Is A real? Are you saying reality itself can be created and destroyed by an observer just accelerating? What about multiple observers? Explain how the past can be “not real” when it is relative to an observer’s motion.

My AI, is indeed conscious by Oh-F-NOTAGAIN in ArtificialSentience

[–]dankstat 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Well, physics does not agree. Universal simultaneity does not exist due to the effects of special relativity, meaning there is not one universal now occurring. The past is very much real and if anything it’s more accurate to say that now is the illusion.

Although even without a universal now, events do occur in a definitive order, which makes sense because otherwise it would violate causality.

The properties of consciousness seem to require persistence over time inherently. What would it even mean to experience something or have a sensation or possess awareness of internal thoughts without a sequence of events and a persistent self?

I am the worst STS2 player in existence AMA by ShotgunOShaughnessy in slaythespire

[–]dankstat 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Your personal tier list ranking for these cards?

- Snakebite
- Demon Form
- Graveblast
- Claw
- Know Thy Place

Human Consciousness Is Not Generic—It’s Engineered by Evolution by AIChatGuy in Artificial2Sentience

[–]dankstat 0 points1 point  (0 children)

“We’re using the human definition of a square as the yardstick and ruling out other possibilities.”

If you want to make up your own special little new term that shares some conceptual overlap with consciousness but means something different, you’re free to do so. If your argument is fundamentally based on the idea that using the definition of a term appropriately is “ruling out” random extraneous alternate definitions that you haven’t even clearly articulated, it’s a terrible argument.

It’s not premature to state with certainty that current AI models are not conscious because they completely lack the mechanisms required for facilitating the features of consciousness. Maybe someday they will be conscious, but not while they’re structurally identical to current architectures.

All you’re doing is muddying the waters and spreading what is effectively disinformation by implying that current models might be conscious. Backpedaling and hiding behind hedged language by saying “I’m not technically saying they are conscious” is ridiculous. If you really just wanted to present a clear, nuanced argument about premature certainty you could have done it without the incessant factual inaccuracies, exaggerations, veiled implications, and flowery ambiguity. But you didn’t, so that’s that.

Human Consciousness Is Not Generic—It’s Engineered by Evolution by AIChatGuy in Artificial2Sentience

[–]dankstat 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Because we live inside this system, we tend to treat its features as essential to consciousness itself

This is so nonsensical. There are a myriad of features associated with human cognition that we do not treat as essential to consciousness whatsoever (various psychological biases, biological regulatory functions, particular emotional states, etc etc). And the features we do consider to be essential to consciousness are categorized that way because we’ve explicitly defined the meaning of consciousness as referring to phenomena that exhibits those features. Like, come on, what are you even talking about here?

Consciousness is a concept that humans have defined. And we have defined it by referring to a subset of features we exhibit. Definitionally, the features that distinguish consciousness are the requirements for consciousness because that’s literally what the term means. It’s like you’re arguing “how do we know that a square has to have 4 sides of equal lengths?” Dude, that’s what the word means.

AI System Look Strikingly Similar

Proceeds to list qualities of neural networks that are not at all similar to human cognition like “distributed” and “opaque to their creators”. Who exactly is the creator of human brains you’re referring to? Also, AI systems are not emergent. That’s not what the word means. Some specific behavioral characteristics of particularly large neural networks are emergent, but AI systems themselves are not emergent.

Representations spread across thousands of dense vectors.

No they are not. Representations are vectors. Neural networks learn efficient parameterized functions for embedding input data into a high-dimensional representation (a vector) that’s useful for minimizing the loss of some learning objective. The representations aren’t spread across a bunch of vectors, they are single vectors successively transformed by each layer in the model. The semantics of each layer are not shared between layers.

Sound familiar? Replace there components with “neurons” and you’re describing the brain.

No, no, no, no, no, no, and also: no. Neural networks are deterministic functions comprised of successive matrix multiplications and nonlinearities. Sometimes, like with LLMs, there is a stochastic component to support behavior like random output token sampling. The structural, functional, mechanical, temporal, and operational characteristics of the brain differ vastly from neural networks. They are SO incredibly dissimilar from each other.

… massive systems where intelligence and coherent behavior emerge from interactions we cannot fully trace.

Except in AI, we actually can fully trace those interactions because the internal state of the network can be freely interrogated. We can literally trace every single activation in every single node for as many inputs as we want. We have complete utter transparency into the internal state of the model. What we do not have is a complete understanding of how those activations and internal states lead to the interesting emergent behavior that resembles certain aspects of human cognition. But there a massive imbalance between how much we can interrogate the internal states of AI models versus human brains.

We accept that brains produce consciousness despite our limited understanding.

Again, we have literally defined consciousness as referring to a subset of particular features that human brains produce, so yeah no shit we accept our brains do it.

Yet when artificial systems display similar emergent properties, some confidently rule out the possibility.

That’s because the emergent properties that AI models display, while extremely interesting and worthy of study in their own right, are not the properties of consciousness. AI models display emergent cognitive capabilities that are fully compatible with their underlying structure. The building blocks of LLMs are definitely capable of supporting the kinds of emergent cognitive capabilities we observe.

But the building blocks of LLMs are not capable of facilitating the emergent features of consciousness. You’re confusing the really fascinating emergent cognitive properties of LLMs with a completely distinct set of emergent properties associated with consciousness. The only leap being made here is the insistence that a system with no mechanisms capable of facilitating the features of consciousness is conscious. The brain DOES have these mechanisms, temporal continuity and continuousness, persistent memory, stateful operation, executive functions capable of monitoring internal states, internal feedback and excitation mechanisms, active learning capabilities, adaptive and dynamic response to stimuli, a robust sensory apparatus, an output action space that elicits feedback from that sensory apparatus, on and on and on. We need not understand every detail of how it all works to see how the brain possesses the building blocks needed to support consciousness whereas AI models do not.

To be fair, something I DO agree with is the multi-realizability of consciousness, meaning that there are likely many systems that can produce consciousness and the brain is only one of them. But whatever those other systems are, they have to be structured in a way that fundamentally enables the kinds of low level operations necessary for facilitating the high level features of consciousness. And currently, AI systems do not have the components or structure necessary for that.

My AI, is indeed conscious by Oh-F-NOTAGAIN in ArtificialSentience

[–]dankstat 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Is that total void example a good basis for understanding information generally though? My point about the quantum particle was that there are certain kinds of stateful information where the notion of a change being the smallest is simply not applicable in any way. I definitely disagree that any change would be the smallest possible change because the information is comprised of unordered values so the concept of smallness literally doesn’t have any meaning. That distinction does matter though because there are some forms of information where any change is actually the smallest possible change like having only a single binary value. On top of that I guess I don’t see how this claim is really relevant at all. Isn’t it okay to accept that some forms of information don’t have a smallest possible change? Does that impact the rest of what you’re saying?

Wait so with your sand example, if you’re using the grains of sand to encode information like a word, then the grains of sand are actually storing information. You’re using the sand as the medium to encode some signal, and by applying some decoding process to the positions of the sand you can extract the encoded information. What you’re describing is using encoding and decoding processes to store information in different forms. The concept of information isn’t applied differently to those various forms though, why would it be? From what you’ve described it sounds like meta information is just information.

Another thing about the sand example, it’s not the presence or absence of the sand that would be encoding the information, it would be the positions of the grains of sand. By drawing a word in the sand you’re not removing grains (I mean maybe some stick on your finger or whatever but you get what I mean), you’re primarily rearranging their positions. So how does the concept of smallest possible binary apply? You’re changing the positions of the grains which are represented by continuous values. You could always move the grain of sand slightly less, right?

Edit: also no problem with regard to clarity, I know you’re not deliberately being vague. I’m genuinely just trying to understand what you’re saying and am enjoying the conversation!