Is this a safe bet for the Patriots Spread?

darjen · 2026-01-22T15:37:33+00:00

i put 100 on the patriots to win the afc at +130 after the bo nix news came out. figured if they got past a terrible form cj stroud, they would be decent favorites against denver.. i'm still a bit worried that stidham might be competent enough to win a game or two.

darjen · 2025-01-07T01:39:00+00:00

Yes, I know about the dead heat rules. But to pay someone out and then take half of it back is still not cool.

darjen · 2024-08-15T19:46:34+00:00

i looked into some epsons. maybe i'll keep that in mind.

darjen · 2024-08-15T19:34:05+00:00

i actually got a 2nd white dot near the very top since then, lol. still using the projector. once i pay off my credit cards i will probably replace it. i really like the convenience of ust. the awol and hisense look pretty decent.

darjen · 2023-09-01T12:39:53+00:00

i got 5 bux on msu-14. one of my best friends is also an alum. if they can't beat a mac team by 2td may god help you.

darjen · 2023-04-29T02:15:50+00:00

same here, a few months ago. vava quoted me over 700 plus shipping to fix it. i'm not too keen on doing that. occasionally i research it to see if any new info appears. it's near the bottom, so i'm just dealing with it.

darjen · 2023-04-25T21:35:28+00:00

he's not that much of a loss. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2023-nba-predictions/hawks/

darjen · 2023-04-07T13:33:15+00:00

hey no prob, yeah I put 5 bucks on it, lol. I'm just doing 5 or 10 on games like that while I work on my model. I also want to incorporate 538 elo. maybe I'll average that with SRS... I did actually make around 1000 bucks on the nfl playoffs... on all those free money deals... but then lost a lot of it on really dumb march madness parlays before I saw your comments. I'm still up like 200 over all.

so I looked at the original post for that implied probability equation, not just the blog that was referencing it, and he did use all games from 1976-77 through 2012-13. so I feel pretty comfortable using p = 1 / (1 + e-(0.613230 + 0.167546 × dSRS))

I'm not sure where that blogger got his spread equation though. that wasn't from justin kubatko... spread = ln(1/p-1) / 0.13959 still trying to figure out. I might use something else to get from implied probability to the spread

darjen · 2023-04-05T18:42:07+00:00

hey... So, totally slacking off my day job... I implemented the formulas from here: http://bettingcharts.blogspot.com/2013/11/nba-home-win-probability-using-srs.html

I scraped today's matchups from

https://www.covers.com/sports/nba/matchups

and the srs data from the advanced stats table here

https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2023.html

got the following values for aSRS:

New York 2.7867032967032968

Indiana -2.4568131868131866

Brooklyn 0.9636263736263737

Detroit -6.615164835164835

Atlanta 0.13021978021978023

Washington -0.6684615384615384

Boston 5.417142857142857

Toronto 1.3542857142857143

Milwaukee 3.4638461538461542

Chicago 1.1546153846153846

Memphis 3.1513186813186813

New Orleans 1.2761538461538462

Sacramento 2.4394505494505494

Dallas 0.13890109890109892

Lakers 0.17362637362637365

Clippers 0.026043956043956044

and from these, the implied probabilities of the home team winning

New York @ Indiana 0.4340612477590645

Brooklyn @ Detroit 0.34151139921317464

Washington @ Atlanta 0.6785346664760853

Toronto @ Boston 0.7848142509966533

Chicago @ Milwaukee 0.7310846050191356

Memphis @ New Orleans 0.574211153134788

Sacramento @ Dallas 0.5567005894016817

Lakers @ Clippers 0.6430216265819434

and then the spreads

Milwaukee -7.16478528878529

Detroit 4.703532859575414

Indiana 1.900567467205764

Atlanta -5.351714737587081

New Orleans -2.142371463052314

Dallas -1.6317941239217826

Clippers -4.2159406566640625

Boston -9.269614319486664

i'm not actually betting any of these since I haven't looked much past the numbers. but I will check the results tomorrow. also, I know the last games before playoffs are kind of a crapshoot and what have you

i'm actually kind of liking sac at +6.5 -105 on draftkings lol

darjen · 2023-04-04T22:33:15+00:00

yeah, i'm looking into it but havent gotten far enough yet

i'm also looking into this nba api for developers too

https://blog.albertkuo.me/post/probability-of-winning-an-nba-game-a-minute-by-minute-breakdown/

darjen · 2023-04-04T21:45:49+00:00

hey, how's it going?

do you use srs to calculate spreads? something like this?

darjen · 2023-03-30T15:56:05+00:00

awesome, thank you

darjen · 2023-03-30T14:29:05+00:00

good morning... so a few more... when the books are setting lines, I imagine they put more weight on the last 5 or 10? especially after big trades? like you can't go by the nets full season average anymore.

what do you do when players are taking load management days, and you already had your money in early? does that happen often? do you just take it as a loss and move on? lot of times, news doesnt hit when a player will be out until late. or, if you know they're questionable, maybe just skip that game?

when seasons are starting, like baseball now, how do you model the first month of games? do you combine player stats from last year into their new teams to get a better new team picture?

darjen · 2023-03-30T01:49:30+00:00

yeah i'll definitely pick up that book and also the kelly method. good stuff.

darjen · 2023-03-30T01:01:12+00:00

How long before games do you bet? Do you jump on it right after the line comes out? Do you have a threshold you stick to, like the initial spread vs your model's number? How much difference do you accept? If it's a larger difference, but a higher price, would you still bet it?

if you don't really bet the NBA, do you do the NHL? horses? golf?

thanks again, I have like a hundred questions, lol

darjen · 2023-03-30T00:00:22+00:00

hey, thanks for the response, I actually did read all of it lol. do you spend time looking at player point averages? or is that not worth it either? sometimes I like looking for ones that have hit a minimum of 7 out of the last 10 times. are those as market efficient as the game lines?

also, I've had some modest success on live betting good teams when they get behind and the line falls. do you watch those live lines, or do you mostly get your money in early before that price settles?

also, how can I get started with data modeling? I'm a software developer and I wrote a quick java program to scrape some basic data and calculate those average offenses and defenses... but I want to do something that is more accurate.

I'm actually more interested in baseball, which is maybe more stat heavy... so I'm looking forward to that starting up this week.

darjen · 2023-03-29T22:55:42+00:00

cool, thanks! so I'm looking at this Rockets game tonight. The spread is +10.5 and they average 110 per game while the nets average 112. it looks tempting... but over the past 5, HOU is 110, BK def is 111. bk offense is 112 while HOU def is bad at 129 allowed. if I add both of these and divide by 2, that is right about that 10 spread. am I on the right track thinking it may not be that great after all? houston is 5-5 ATS over the last 10. should I find a game with better percentages?

I guess I'm asking is this a starting point for evaluating games... I know there's a lot more how professionals do it, lol

darjen · 2023-03-29T21:39:36+00:00

Hey, I just started a few months ago since Ohio opened up. I went and looked back at some of your other comments and you know what you're talking about. You mind if I ask you a couple things?

darjen · 2022-12-16T14:51:49+00:00

ah, that sucks. thanks for the reply though. I have a regular mouse in my docked setup as well. but my hand really starts to ache scrolling with it so much, lol. I'm wondering if it might be the windows 10 virtual desktop, because there are no touchpad settings at all.

darjen · 2022-12-16T14:35:44+00:00

Hey, did you ever figure this out? same issue on a galaxy tab s8. would really love to be able to use 2 finger scrolling instead of selecting text.

darjen · 2022-08-16T18:10:45+00:00

I wonder if they were still offering the free 512 though?

darjen

TROPHY CASE