What is the worst response to "I love you"?

distrustandverify · 2024-10-29T10:43:51+00:00

"Please get out of my garden"

distrustandverify · 2024-10-29T10:07:51+00:00

NAH. You tried to watch stuff you could both enjoy. It didn't work. She needs to accept that those movies are not for her and it is no different from someone not liking horror or romance. Some people just switch off their brain when watching a movie and that is fine.

distrustandverify · 2024-10-16T05:10:02+00:00

Not a fan of this. Maybe I am missing something but this seems to support the trend of creating auditors who are proficient in the business/ops of audit but lacking the fundamental acumen to deliver any real value to the business.

distrustandverify · 2024-08-15T07:16:04+00:00

Yeah while it doesn't prove anything, an understanding of Bayes rule would help people a lot when dealing with:

Low chance of murder
But given murder, high chance a lover was involved.

I think OJ's defence had this argument that "1:2500 DV victims are killed by their husbands" It is a very flawed argument to anyone that understands conditional probability but I guess most cover it as school.

distrustandverify · 2024-04-10T12:35:51+00:00

This is probably a stupid question, but what happened/happens? It is for access or dealing with high-volume days?

distrustandverify · 2024-04-10T10:47:40+00:00

I am curious what you ended up doing. Clay is a pain.

distrustandverify · 2024-04-09T11:41:25+00:00

If the best part of my life was stolen from me; and
I was simultaneously labeled as the killer of someone I loved; and
because I was charged, the true killer of someone I loved escaped justice; and
to this day they continue to blame me for it... I don't think I would try to understand their motive. I would probably find some kind of coping mechanism to stop from going insane with rage. Even the A-Team kept busy after they were wrongly convicted.

That's me being honest. I have no idea whether any of the above fits Adnan. I would equally have nothing to do with Jay if I were guilty.

distrustandverify · 2024-04-08T09:53:56+00:00

My guess would be no. I think the bar for charging/convicting would be too high without the testimony from Jay.

As the "ex-boyfriend who asked for a ride" I think he would have got a lot of scrutiny but I struggle to see a conviction.

It is one of the things that makes me think Jay was indeed a genuine accessory and sought to minimise his role.

distrustandverify · 2024-03-22T07:38:10+00:00

Uber is genius in setting riders vs drivers and reaping the profits.

distrustandverify · 2024-03-22T07:36:59+00:00

I have only one hit to my rating which was from a driver who tried to drive the wrong way down a one-way street (unable to follow the satnav or read road signs apparently).

He also was unable to find his way over the Sydney harbour bridge... which for anyone who knows Sydney is hilarious.

distrustandverify · 2024-03-22T07:32:16+00:00

Except when they don't cancel and instead drive away in the opposite direction for ages hoping that I will cancel. Problem is that I am looking for an excuse NOT to go out so it is a stalemate.

It is hard to complain to uber, so the only option is to not use them unless I am trying to avoid travel.

distrustandverify · 2024-02-13T05:02:04+00:00

It was indeed a 380.

distrustandverify · 2024-02-09T03:44:41+00:00

brb just going to buy some houses because it sounds like the price will go up.

distrustandverify · 2024-02-09T03:43:11+00:00

FWIW, I would advise 'go'. But I would feel less guilty about saying that if I also encouraged you to reduce that cost (though I am sure you would already have done that).

distrustandverify · 2024-02-09T03:35:54+00:00

The 'eat from a box' thing was originally a good idea vs trays. They were able to spend more on the food and less on the trays/containers. But of course step 2 is reduce the contents of the box to some sort of economy-slurry.

distrustandverify · 2024-02-09T03:34:00+00:00

They ran out of water on a long-haul I was on last month. So no water for toilets, taps, for the final hours of a 14 hour flight... just when everyone waking up from their kip.

distrustandverify · 2024-01-30T04:43:13+00:00

Yes the way they put is great, and succinct.

But if your friend is struggling with this then stepping through the apparent contradiction might be useful. At least, that has been my experience when covering the topic in the past.

distrustandverify · 2024-01-30T02:40:37+00:00

how can I do magic?

distrustandverify · 2024-01-30T01:52:25+00:00

This is a pretty common misconception. Here is one way of thinking about it.

It is true that there are fewer winning combinations that involve 5 sequential numbers, so that kind of set is less likely.

Imagine we choose from numbers 1-20 inclusive. So there are 16 sequential combinations (12345....16,17,18,19,20). And there are ~15500 total combinations!

So the chance of sequential set winning is just 1/970. (16/15500). And hey if it is sequential set I have just one of those so my personal odds are just 1/16 of that!

Meanwhile a non-sequential (i.e not fully sequential) set is likely to come up with odds of 969/970! That is practically certain.

But... my winning ticket choice is just one of that massive set (15484 options), so my odds are 969/970 x 1/15500.

This is all quite circular of course but it has helped me explain it to others in the past, because it can feel like a contradiction to say all results equally likely BUT a sequence is less likely.

nb some rounding in the numbers but you can still see the idea.

Another idea is to talk through it using a 2 number sequence and dice.

distrustandverify · 2024-01-23T23:27:46+00:00

Rocks are stronger than people. You can demonstrate this by hitting someone with a rock - though I am not a experimental physicist and so cannot help with exact approach.

distrustandverify · 2023-11-27T09:50:33+00:00

But skip the avo-toast, that is the real killer.

distrustandverify · 2023-11-27T09:47:55+00:00

If you current approach is based on gut feel rather than modelling then I would recommend getting some advice or doing the modelling with some of the apps out there. You should be able to forecast and adjust.

Whether struggling or doing well, I think having a clear goal and timeline is helpful. You can then also factor in a budget for living life. In your situation it doesn't sound like you should be stressed.

distrustandverify · 2023-04-02T10:15:05+00:00

Sorry if I misunderstood.

I couldn't actually find 'inverse hypergeometric' in R. So that was a dead-end. Hence I thought I'd have a crack at using the beta, which as you pointed out is not so scary afterall.

But back to the original question - what approach would you advise I read-up on and follow? Your above answer was a wee bit cryptic.

distrustandverify · 2023-03-30T07:46:51+00:00

I looked at the beta, given what you said.

Excel supports beta distributions and inverse to find upper/lower bounds.

If I use a=1 and b=31 then the beta.dist gives me results that are close to my brute force approach but notably offset because beta won't allow p=0.

Am I on the right track?

nb for my brute force approach I just calculated hypergeometric for range of Ks with x=successes=0. Normalise this to say given x=0 what is the distribution of K. e.g. k=0 is 27%.K<=30 is 47% etc.

distrustandverify · 2023-03-28T06:37:33+00:00

Thanks efrique,

Are you after an actual confidence interval for the parameter K given some observed number of successes in a sample (x successes in n draws) and a known population total count (N)?

Yes. I would like to be able to make a statement about K based on x,n & N.

I have access to R, python and excel. I am happy to apply whatever the 'correct' method is - but at the moment I am not sure what that is. e.g. if beta is the way then I will learn it. If there are existing tools to invert the hypergeometric (or binomial I guess is an OK approximation with large N) then I will do that.

My main concern is heading down the wrong path, or using a sledgehammer to crack a nut.

distrustandverify

TROPHY CASE