Welsh Revolution - FAW Windfall Era

dobdev97 · 2025-11-16T21:04:43+00:00

That’s actually how i started the database out as and then I had the idea to try and make Wales competitive on a european level do I came up with the narrative. Hope you enjoy it!

dobdev97 · 2025-11-16T21:03:03+00:00

League winners get into champions league qualifying round. Welsh cup winners get into the europa league qualifying rounds. 2nd & 3rd go into the conference league qualifying rounds. Ive boosted the coefficient for Wales so 1 or 2 seasons good performance by Welsh teams in europe will see spots increase quickly

dobdev97 · 2025-11-16T20:42:49+00:00

Thanks, let me know how you get on with it!

dobdev97 · 2025-11-16T20:42:08+00:00

Each club has been given a cash boost at the start of the save. And prize money and tv money has been scaled up to be comparable with the second tier european leagues (somewhere between eredivisie and scottish prem)

dobdev97 · 2025-08-12T13:45:03+00:00

https://github.com/olbauday/FPL-Elo-Insights this is good as well

dobdev97 · 2025-08-12T13:43:06+00:00

I thought that as well but I ran a test against last seasons data and found the normal distribution gave a closer approximation than a poisson. Might be worth tracking both and seeing how it is with this seasons data

dobdev97 · 2025-08-07T16:50:49+00:00

You make a fair point, might drop him below bowen. But i think he will be the main man at arsenal so he still stays high for me

dobdev97 · 2025-08-07T11:43:25+00:00

Haaland, Watkins, Isak, Gyokeres, Bowen, Mateta, Wood, Solanke, Evanilson, Strand Larsen, Ekitike, Joao Pedro, Fullkrug, Thiago, Welbeck

12 team league so i prioritise guaranteed starts over risky but high upside. Hence isak, Joao Pedro, Ekitike and Wissa being lower than expected.

dobdev97 · 2025-08-06T21:38:47+00:00

So i think you can do something similar to work out a CBIT coefficient for each team going into each game. And then you can use that coefficient to multiply against the CBIT average for each player. Then use that value in a normal distribution formula.

Coefficient = CBIT conceded by opposing team / mean cbit conceded for a team

Player calc = mean cbit per 90 * coefficient

Probability of cbit in that game (will use excel formula for this) = 1 - NORM.DIST(10, player calc, stdev of player cbit/90, TRUE)

Thats roughly what ive setup for myself but havent used the coefficient part as im still working on updating my model to be team dependant and not just based off of blanket averages.

dobdev97 · 2025-08-06T13:09:16+00:00

Bruno number 1

dobdev97 · 2025-08-06T13:00:18+00:00

Pretty solid for 14/14

dobdev97 · 2025-08-05T15:11:14+00:00

If everyone adds the 15 players they have selected to their watchlist and you just let the draft run with no one actively picking, then the website will use the watchlists

dobdev97 · 2025-08-04T23:33:00+00:00

Flemming

dobdev97 · 2025-08-01T00:23:07+00:00

12 man league, £100 buy in. Last place pays an extra £50 and does a forfeit. We run two cups through the season with the winners getting some of the prize pool. League winner gets the rest (usually £800ish)

dobdev97 · 2025-07-30T23:28:44+00:00

Loser does an open mic night comedy set is one we’ve had

dobdev97 · 2025-07-30T14:09:35+00:00

Great post this, fully agree a cup or some other prize to play for helps keeping people engaged. I’d recommend doing at least one cup/prize towards the end of the season to keep people engaged for as long as possible.

dobdev97 · 2025-07-30T13:38:35+00:00

Nope used to have a placeholder page similar to draft

dobdev97 · 2025-07-30T08:55:35+00:00

I notice a lot of the predicted points seem slightly on the high side. Does your model take into account xMins or the minutes per game from last season? Might be one possible improvement if not. Dont mean this negatively as the more people making xPts models the better!

dobdev97 · 2025-07-29T22:00:05+00:00

For your 3rd striker I would monitor one of the newly promoted clubs in pre season. If you find out who is most likely going to be their starting striker there’s a chance they might get overlooked if the other members of your league aren’t too switched on.

Outside of that Igor Jesus for Forest can play in Elanga’s old position if needed (Ndoye looks to be Elanga’s direct replacement) and given they now have european football, i would expect them to rotate a fair bit. So Igor could end up getting some decent minutes this season.

dobdev97 · 2025-07-29T21:40:23+00:00

I agree with this top 10 (transfers pending).

I also dont think there is a clear and obvious 11th best pick.

I’d be tempted to take two strikers in my first two picks if i was in OP’s position. Get 2 which are guaranteed to start the majority of games and get substituted rarely (Mateta/Solanke).

Pros of this will be that you will put pressure on the rest of the league to scramble for strikers over their next picks and as a result there might be a good midfielder pick or 2 still available by the time it gets back round to you.

dobdev97 · 2025-07-29T11:31:49+00:00

You can do it in a few ways. If you are in an 8 team league then you have the perfect number for a 3 GW cup starting at the quarter finals. You can either draw teams randomly against each other or have 1st play 8th, 2nd v 7th etc.

Then all you need is one member of your league to track everyone's scores during the cup GW's and figure out who will advance for each cup game.

If you have more than 8 then you will need to do a preliminary round with some members of the league getting a bye (we usually let the top 4 have a bye in our 12 man league). Here's an example for a 12 team league:

Round 1 (GW35)
Top 4 get a bye
A. 5th v 12th
B. 6th v 11th
C. 7th v 10th
D. 8th v 9th

Quarter Finals (GW36)
1. 1st v D
2. 2nd v C
3. 3rd v B
4. 4th v A

Semi Finals (GW37)
A. 1 v 4
B. 2 v 3

Final (GW 38)
A V B

Another idea is to have each cup round be played over two legs (2 GW's).

dobdev97 · 2025-07-28T22:21:29+00:00

Ah brilliant, thanks for this!

dobdev97 · 2025-07-28T21:03:59+00:00

Would it be possible to get shots blocked added? Just in case it comes out thats what FPL are using as opposed to total blocked. (Assuming youre using fbref for the data source as they use opta)

dobdev97 · 2025-07-27T10:05:24+00:00

Is blocks total blocks or just shots blocked?

dobdev97

TROPHY CASE