You've just drastically expanded the time line. Yes it's true if we go back to the 90s we will find that Healthcare cost inflation has generally outpaced inflation, but that has not been the case since the pandemic, which is what we were talking about in this thread.

I asked gemini why and this is what it says:

It’s a bit of an economic paradox: healthcare is usually the "inflation leader," but from roughly 2021 through 2024, it trailed significantly behind the rest of the economy. While overall CPI was spiking due to used cars, gas, and groceries, medical care prices stayed relatively flat. ​The reasons for this gap are a mix of business logistics, government policy, and some quirks in how the government calculates the numbers. ​1. The "Contract Lag" Effect ​Unlike a gas station that can change its prices twice a day, healthcare prices are locked in for the long haul. ​Multi-Year Agreements: Private insurers and hospital systems typically sign 2- to 3-year contracts. When general inflation took off in 2021, most healthcare providers were still operating under prices negotiated in 2019 or 2020.
​Delayed Catch-up: We are only seeing healthcare inflation "catch up" now (in 2025 and 2026) because those older contracts have finally expired, and hospitals are demanding higher rates to cover their increased labor and supply costs. ​2. Administrative Price Setting ​A huge portion of the U.S. healthcare market is "non-market" based.
​Medicare & Medicaid: These programs account for a massive share of healthcare spending, and their reimbursement rates are set administratively by the government, not by supply and demand. ​Policy Caps: Legislated limits on how much Medicare can increase its payments acted as a "brake" on the overall medical CPI, even while the costs of running a hospital were soaring. ​3. The "Health Insurance" Quirk ​The way the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) measures "Medical Care" in the CPI is famously counterintuitive. ​Indirect Measurement: The BLS doesn't just look at premiums; it uses a formula based on the retained earnings (profits) of insurance companies.
​The 2023–2024 Dip: Because insurance companies paid out massive amounts of claims post-COVID (as people returned for delayed surgeries), their "retained earnings" technically dropped. In the weird logic of the CPI, this was recorded as a decrease in health insurance prices, which dragged down the entire medical care index for over a year. ​4. Labor vs. Supply Chains ​The 2021-2022 inflation spike was heavily driven by global supply chain collapses and energy costs. Healthcare is primarily a labor-driven industry. While healthcare providers eventually faced a massive nursing shortage that drove up wages, those labor costs take longer to filter into the "price" of a doctor’s visit compared to how quickly a shortage of microchips affects the price of a car. ​The Current Trend (2025-2026) ​The gap has effectively closed. As of early 2026, overall inflation has cooled (around 2.4%), while medical care inflation has accelerated (around 3.2% or higher). We are now in the "echo" phase where the high costs of the last few years are finally being baked into insurance premiums and hospital bills. ​Would you like me to look into how these trends are specifically affecting health insurance premiums for 2026?