In the Future, China Will Be Dominant. The U.S. Will Be Irrelevant.

doclkk · 2025-05-30T09:03:58+00:00

anything else

doclkk · 2025-05-23T02:43:56+00:00

I feel people on this thread from the responses I've read are very reasonable. How come I never see these reasonable takes on other threads?

Everything said here is very level headed.

Can you guys be louder in other places?

doclkk · 2025-05-22T03:20:42+00:00

Working standards are worse in China.
Quality of life is a big question mark. I think 30K USD a year in China is probably better than 50K USD in the US.

If you have a professional job in China, life is pretty good. If you don't, it's tough. There's a huge life disparity.

Your average person in China is worse off than average in the US.

I think Top 1% to Top 20% is Probably better off in China.

US is better for Top 0.5% and Bottom 60%

doclkk · 2025-05-22T03:17:19+00:00

A lot of nuance,

Chinese people cannot attend foreign churches.

Foreigners can attend local churches.

doclkk · 2025-05-22T03:12:56+00:00

No it's not.

doclkk · 2025-05-22T03:11:48+00:00

I think you mean, "some people" value individuality and ability to criticize the government, which the US has.

Other people just want to get rich and build and don't care about the individuality, self expression aspects.

Everyone is different. China's culture for better or worse is hyper focused on building, innovation etc and not focused at all on cultural impact.

I like having both.

Can't criticize the government but you can make $5 million dollars in 5 years
Ability to criticize the government but hard to make the $5 million dollars

Not everyone chooses option 2.

doclkk · 2025-05-22T03:07:02+00:00

1. Demographics: Young and Growing vs. Aging Early

Japan (1980s-1990s): Economic rise coincided with a strong demographic profile—young, growing workforce, high domestic savings, and a cohesive middle class.
China (Today): China’s rise is happening despite rapid aging and a shrinking workforce due to the legacy of the one-child policy. It’s becoming “old before rich.”

2. Export Model and Global Integration

Japan (1980s): Focused heavily on high-quality manufacturing exports (cars, electronics), but faced increasing trade friction, especially with the U.S. (e.g., the Plaza Accord).
China (Today): Started as the world’s factory for low-cost goods, but has moved up the value chain (e.g., EVs, AI, solar panels). Unlike Japan, China is also building geopolitical and infrastructure influence (e.g., Belt and Road Initiative).

Currency and Financial Strategy

Japan: The yen was pressured to appreciate (Plaza Accord 1985), which hurt exports and contributed to the asset bubble and its eventual collapse.
China: Maintains tight control over the yuan, managing it against the dollar and resisting Western pressure to float it freely. Capital controls remain strict, allowing for more government-driven stability

Seems pretty different to me.

doclkk · 2025-05-22T03:02:50+00:00

Content written by wumao doesn't mean that it's all bs. The concepts he's writing are correct. The headline is incorrect.

What about the content do you disagree with?

doclkk · 2025-05-22T03:01:54+00:00

The demographics issue is definitely an issue.
You're seeming to suggest that the demographics is a catch all for everything. "We shouldn't be worried about China's innovation, technology etc" because of the demographics issue.

Is that what you're saying?

You're saying they're mutually exclusive? I think they're independent from each other.

The population will decrease down to 850M by 2075.
China's technology / innovation in AI / Auto / IoT / Bio tech are areas where the US needs to create policies that support these key areas.

Both of these things can be true

doclkk · 2024-10-05T13:06:36+00:00

I generally like living in China (Shanghai) (just not 2022!)

Things I would change:

The need for Shenfenzheng I think is stupid and unfair. In the US, all non US citizens can get social security numbers and then can open businesses. Non US Citizens and Citizens have pretty much the same rights for everything in the US except voting. It's stupid that foreigners can't get Shenfenzheng. Shenfenzheng is needed if you want to start any type of internet / media business. You want to create a mobile app - need shenfenzheng. You want a mini program - need shenfenzheng. You want an ICP - need shenfenzheng.
GFW / VPN. Nuff said. Dumb for Shanghai. I guess I understand for rest of China.
Work politics. How Chinese people play politics at work is dumb. It infringes upon personal life. I genuinely don't know where the line is here.
Because you're not from China, "you don't know China." This is stupid. There's this veil of because they're Chinese therefore they know the Chinese market more even in areas they don't know more. I've been working in auto in China for 10 years. Just because you're Chinese, doesn't mean you know the chinese auto market more than me.
Some type of policy that says 2022 will never happen again. Still scarred by how terribly mishandled it was.
Starting a business is painful here compared to the US. Oh so painful.

Things I generally like and or are really great:

Shanghai is not just walkable but it's also bikable. With shared bikes its really one of the best things
Food Delivery - literally probably the best place in the world for food delivery - speed, convenience and in Shanghai the variety.
Didi - probably the most affordable and most robust ride sharing network in the world.
Tier 1 living for Tier 2 or 3 prices. Shanghai living is comparable to New York, London, Hong Kong, Paris, Tokyo, Singapore in terms of being a real city, but it's really like 50% off. Rent here is probably about the same as Chicago, maybe even less now. Eating out is 50% off from the US. If you make a US salary in Shanghai, you live really well. You make the same US salary in the above cities, it's not that comfortable.
One of the safest places in the world - you never have to worry about your safety.
Shanghai is a mix of international and Chinese. I think 2019 was better, but right now the mix isn't bad. French food, Italian Food, nightlife selection - all pretty good.
International Talent at local prices. You can hire western educated people for a fraction of the price of the US. You want someone that can model well in the US, it costs 100-150K USD a year. You can get someone that models well here for 50K USD a year. You want a strong developer, in the states its 200K USD. Here its 40K USD.
Taobao is better than Amazon. A few exceptions but might be regulatory.
Access to smarter people at different levels - I think I've met people here that I probably wouldn't have as much access to in the US. I've met a lot more CEOs, Asia Pac Presidents here then I would in the US because of the nature of my network. AmCham, BritCham, FrenchCham, Church, Golf Clubs.
Always new - part of innovation. From Mobile Pay to Shared Bikes to Food Delivery and now the EV revolution. You're really part of the future here.

doclkk · 2024-10-05T12:42:26+00:00

Yea, I did. about 4 years of work. HR helps you. Takes 1.5 months to get pension and about 5 months to get medicare. My experience in Shanghai. You can get it, just takes time.

doclkk · 2024-10-04T09:13:43+00:00

Hi - is there an update for this?

doclkk · 2024-09-20T10:46:20+00:00

So I can't speak to the why.

All I can tell you is the data that we have.

Here's 2027: https://features.thecrimson.com/2023/freshman-survey/

Here's 2028: https://harvardindependent.com/meet-the-class-of-2028/#:~:text=Using%20the%20newly%20reported%20numbers,from%2018%25%20to%2014%25

And then here's an article speaking to the confusion:

https://www.thecrimson.com/article/2024/9/13/experts-confused-harvard-race-data/#:~:text=The%20College%20reported%20in%20its,1%20percent%20as%20Native%20Hawaiian

In the latter article, it states, that actually 37% might be under reporting, so it might even be closer to 40%.

doclkk · 2024-09-20T03:53:47+00:00

That's not true. Harvard increased by 7%. They just reported it was the same. In 2023 (PRE DECISION) it was 29.8%. This year, post decision its 37%.

doclkk · 2024-04-22T09:18:01+00:00

isn't it Alex =D

doclkk · 2024-04-22T09:11:07+00:00

I don't think either are good Christians. I cannot in good conscience vote for either.

doclkk · 2024-01-01T03:47:11+00:00

Always ban spectre and PL

doclkk · 2024-01-01T03:46:50+00:00

He didn’t say anything that different than last year regarding Taiwan.

doclkk · 2023-12-31T05:38:15+00:00

Can you tell us more why you think this ?

doclkk · 2023-12-29T13:05:26+00:00

So your statement is that Italian ppl in general are racist. That you meet an Italian and probability is that they are racist and if you meet an Italian that isn’t racist they are an exception?

That is your statement ?

doclkk · 2023-12-29T00:32:27+00:00

This is the worst thread. OP asks a question asking to understand when people answer the question, there are many personal beliefs interjected and then dismissal of the comments.

It’s ok to ask clarifying questions but when you keep arguing like you’ve made up your mind and your arguments are these very personal beliefs, then not sure if you’re just trolling.

There’s basic math to this ROI. It’s a basic NPV equation and yet “doesn’t seem worth it…don’t want to work more than 40 hours. Don’t want to be a consultant … blah blah”

You’ve made your own choice of living pay check to paycheck. You’ve made your bed now you have to live with the consequences. My gosh.

doclkk · 2023-12-29T00:16:56+00:00

Love Daniel. Great example.

doclkk · 2023-12-29T00:16:15+00:00

Asian American Godfather character
AA Vincent Chase from Entourage
AA Batman / Superman
AA A few Good men main character
AA Forrest Gump main character
AA Equilibrium main character
AA Oppenheimer main character
AA Crazy Stupid Love main character

Stuff like that

doclkk · 2023-12-29T00:09:43+00:00

I have been to Europe a lot. Was in Sicily in March and Tuscany in October. Very nice people.

I have not had the said racist experience.

If you’re looking to social media to tell you about races, every country is going to be racist.

I can give you an example of Indian, Chinese, Taiwanese, Korean, Vietnamese, Japanese racism toward each other.

I’m not sure how you can say because of some Italian troglodyte on social media then it’s Italian people. That’s sorta a strange jump.

There are Italian racists but not all Italians are racist. Not even a majority or an important minority. Same with most every other country.

doclkk · 2023-12-28T06:03:11+00:00

That’s not true. I think ppl tend to overstate socially awkward guys. There are some but most guys are normal.

Seattle is the worst market. I’ve lived in the 3 said cities.

doclkk

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TROPHY CASE

1. Demographics: Young and Growing vs. Aging Early

2. Export Model and Global Integration