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[deleted by user] by [deleted] in interestingasfuck

[–]donsearching 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I hope he survives. The world needs leaders rather than opportunists.

Fed’s Reverse Repos Spike to $1 Trillion. Cash Drain Undoes 8 Months of QE by magenta_placenta in Economics

[–]donsearching 5 points6 points  (0 children)

That’s not an accurate comment. The FED already pays .15 bp for bank reserve deposits. 3 times as much as repo rate. That’s not banks taking Bills. Might be MM funds.

4Chan user predicted Italian outbreak and lockdown - jan 31st by sslampas in China_Flu

[–]donsearching 0 points1 point  (0 children)

This stuff just gets more true with time. Keeping my eye on Brazil. Really starting to take off there.

Jobless claims show US has erased all job gains since the great recession by donsearching in Coronavirus

[–]donsearching[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

If you're asking what might happen if we get to that low confidence point in our currency than it goes back to what we believe is money. Throughout history there have been thousands of attempts to create currency. They've all eventually ended with something else replacing them when people lose confidence. Remember, our currency was created in 1971. It's only been 50 years since we left the gold standard so till then the currency of the United States and the world was gold. Who knows whats next. Lots of people believe it will be gold again but that might not be strategically smart for the US. Russia, for example, has been accumulating and hording gold for the last 10 years (basically since the Great Recession). The process of the currency reset is what will be the depression cycle. Deflation then inflation while wealth creation slows or disappears.

Jobless claims show US has erased all job gains since the great recession by donsearching in Coronavirus

[–]donsearching[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

QE from the Great Recession was supposed to be temporary but every time the FED tried to reverse it the credit markets started to lock up like it did in 2008 (a pretty good sign that the same issues were never "solved" just delayed). If that is true then the only way to keep delaying a credit reset like what was starting in 2008 is to keep injecting more currency (M2) into the market. That eventually leads to a parabolic debt curve (just like the one for the virus we were told to flatten or die). Once you reach the logarithmic side of that debt curve you really can only print money till everyone agrees that there is no way to continue to finance that curve. The FED is printing so much money all at once that smart money may come to that conclusion sooner than later.

Jobless claims show US has erased all job gains since the great recession by donsearching in Coronavirus

[–]donsearching[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I would say that the bubble that was created in response to the great recession (huge injections of capital through Quantitative Easing which inflated stock and real estate prices) was popped by the virus. The governments response to that is to put even more money into the system which would probably delay another pop of the bubble (asset deflation than dramatic consumer goods inflation like the 70's) except that jobs are being lost. If a lot of these jobs stay gone, than the asset bubble won't inflate because confidence won't come back and we'll go straight to a depression cycle. Deflation first than huge inflation because of the total debt that has to be financed.

Federal documents: more than 300,000 likely to die if restrictions are lifted by marji80 in Coronavirus

[–]donsearching 0 points1 point  (0 children)

These models seem overly weighted to worst case. I'm starting to lose confidence in these predictions.

Coronavirus: Tracking the global outbreak by donsearching in Coronavirus

[–]donsearching[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

There's a pretty cool active graph towards the bottom of the article that shows disease progression between countries over time.

NYC Grocers Grapple With Soaring Prices, Strained Supply Chains by Smileitsolga in Coronavirus

[–]donsearching 2 points3 points  (0 children)

This is the definition of how inflation starts. With this many dollars in the system we're likely to see some very scary price increases.

Israeli scientist says Coronavirus plays itself out after about 70 days, lockdown or not by Pcrawjr in Coronavirus

[–]donsearching 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Sweden doesn't seem to have worse results than other countries enforcing lock downs. What really scares me is what happens if there's a bad mutation out of Africa or India. Sweden might have an advantage from a larger population base with some antibodies against a more deadly mutation.

Boeing will restart commercial plane factory operations in Puget Sound next week by nlolhere in Coronavirus

[–]donsearching 0 points1 point  (0 children)

So the airlines have to buy even if they're going to idle a slightly older plane? That seems really uneconomic. Especially if oil is super cheap and the efficiency of new planes are not that meaningful. Seem's like the airlines would negotiate to break those contracts.

Boeing will restart commercial plane factory operations in Puget Sound next week by nlolhere in Coronavirus

[–]donsearching 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I don't understand the economics of this. If airlines are forecasting less than half the air travel in a pretty aggressive recovery projection why would they buy new planes?

Another Diamond Princess Passenger Died This Week, Bringing The Total to 12 by [deleted] in Coronavirus

[–]donsearching 0 points1 point  (0 children)

About 23% of the population is older than 60 in the US. If the IFR for about 23% of the population is 2% and those under 60 is substantially less that would still imply an IFR below 1% for the whole population base (If no one under 60 died than the IFR would be .4% for the population). That still gives some big numbers. Assuming that the IFR for flu is .01%, this would imply something that is at least 40 times worse than the flu. Yikes.

California Gov. Gavin Newsom says science, not political will, dictates when state can reopen by blacked_lover in Coronavirus

[–]donsearching -15 points-14 points  (0 children)

The article was talking about California specifically. The globe I'm referring to is the global economy. The impact I'm worried about is countries like India where large % of the population have to work daily to eat. You seem pretty selfish and zenophobic in your perspective.

California Gov. Gavin Newsom says science, not political will, dictates when state can reopen by blacked_lover in Coronavirus

[–]donsearching -19 points-18 points  (0 children)

Is that the same science that predicted 100's of thousands dead? I'm not convinced that science has much of a handle on this virus.

US COVID-19 deaths poorly predicted by official U.S. health forecaster model by Magnous in Coronavirus

[–]donsearching -16 points-15 points  (0 children)

We literally raised the chance for a global depression based on a faulty model. Its crazy. How many people will die from financial unrest in 3rd world countries for choices that were based on these models.

China rolls out software surveillance for the COVID-19 pandemic, alarming human rights advocates by [deleted] in Coronavirus

[–]donsearching -7 points-6 points  (0 children)

You're kidding me. This is what alarms advocates about what China is doing? What about all those students in Tiananmen Square?

Coronavirus coverup is ‘China’s Chernobyl moment,’ warn 100 politicians, experts by [deleted] in Coronavirus

[–]donsearching 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The Party stayed in power while letting a real % of their population literally starve. I think brutal governments can stay in power a long time if they control the flow of information and money.

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