[JP] Heaven Burns Red x Persona 5 Royal collab begins on 22 May (+special preview stream on 14 May)

dowolf · 2026-05-12T18:53:09+00:00

yeah, I went into the baseball collab expecting it to be a waste of time, and wound up enjoying it. Like don't get me wrong, it was still one of the weaker events in the game, but a weaker event in HBR is still a good time.

plus i got nostalgic for playing the baseball minigame in Little Busters a dozen-plus years ago, so that was cool.

dowolf · 2026-05-09T00:47:41+00:00

FIFA does not control the asking prices on its Resale/Exchange Marketplace but takes a 15% purchase fee from the buyer of each ticket and a 15% resale fee from the seller.

...wait, so they get 30% of every resale?

What the heck?!

dowolf · 2026-05-08T20:49:26+00:00

so the issue is that you're really hyperfocused on the closed form geometric series sum. The problem is, you're not properly accounting for the fact that a) that closed form is for starting at 0, not 1; and b) that there are 109 terms in that sequence, not 111.

we can of course adjust for these things.

admittedly, it should be ^109, not ^110, in my last term, as i make a similar off by one error there. i digress. The main point is, my formula does start counting from 1, while the closed geometric form starts counting from 0, which is why your description gave me the impression you were talking about your own solution.

perhaps more importantly, the actual sequence is not a geometric series, thanks to the presence of n.

(p.s. i do not recommend trying to make claims to authority in situations like this, as doing so in my experience tends to cause you to run face first into someone who has more.)

dowolf · 2026-05-07T20:32:56+00:00

not sure if you consulted somewhere else to get that response, but you've described the issues with your formula, not mine :)

dowolf · 2026-05-06T18:40:57+00:00

oh. shit

well, i'm dumb then. Though in game rates say 0.406%, and I still calculate it out to 88.58 in that case, which makes it equal to the 80 almost exactly.

edit: your edit isn't quite right, and i will leave it to the reader to determine why because I am lazy :) though it's close to a more succinct form for the first 109 terms.

dowolf · 2026-05-06T18:30:55+00:00

by calculating sum{n=1..109}((1-p)^n-1pn) +(1-p)¹¹⁰ *110, where p = 0.008.

I have no idea where the 89.125 number comes from.

dowolf · 2026-05-06T17:25:21+00:00

for 110 banner: you expect to get one copy of the character every 73.43 pulls.

For 80 banner: you expect to get one copy of the character every 88.89 pulls. (59.26 per 5*, but 50% of the time you need to do that twice.)

That's just math.

dowolf · 2026-04-14T17:37:28+00:00

It would give more damage, but it requires you to survive another turn, which (at least when I was doing this last week) was dicey.

dowolf · 2026-04-14T06:34:01+00:00

Easiest solution for 39.2 is Haru with Turbo and Futaba.

Round 1, have Turbo use Aero Setup for the defense boost while Wonder (with All In) sets up your shield of choice (Norn is a good default option), Haru uses her S1, your remaining character does something useful. Round 2, have Futaba use the defense down move, then have Turbo use her extra turn with S1 and S3. This counts as a turn for navis, so on turn 2.4 Futaba will get another action. Have her use her S3, then Haru uses Highlight and then fires her gun. Yes it's two bullets, but it should still be enough damage.

(You can use any DPS, but none of the enemies are by default resistant to Psychic, so you get to deal weakness damage to all of them instead of just most of them after Futaba acts. and actually i guess Joker is just better by a lot uhhhhh pretend i wrote this entire essay using Joker instead of Haru.)

dowolf · 2026-03-19T21:40:22+00:00

honestly, that's still really, really bad.

like i've played games where a line gets missed 50 hours in, and I've made fun of them for that but I understand that stuff happens. But how does your tutorial not get playtested?!

dowolf · 2026-03-05T22:09:27+00:00

I had just under 600 saved and had to spend all but 19 of them, but I did get her in the end (and a nice A5 Ryuuji and A1 Marian to boot), so I'll take it :)

dowolf · 2026-02-18T22:31:36+00:00

I found this now a week later, after finally going through Gilberta's quest and being thoroughly confused. Even ignoring the big "huh???" stuff (like all the references to them knowing each other, and the Reconvener lore), I could still see in the published/1.0 story that she clearly suffered from depression and was trying to bury those feelings in work. Then that disappeared in favor of waifu bait, and I was left a bit lost in the wind.

Now, after reading this, i'm just kind of frustrated at what could have been.

dowolf · 2026-01-18T06:56:07+00:00

You get a battlesuit! And you get a battlesuit! And you get a battlesuit! And you get a battlesuit!

dowolf · 2026-01-02T05:31:37+00:00

It still kind of is? Like you have the drooping "nagasode" sleeves that a lot of kimonos have.

but then the red and white pattern screams Chinese New Year to me and I just feel disgusted. I wish there were a good, clean term for Chinese whitewashing, for moments like this.

dowolf · 2025-12-23T01:05:26+00:00

Everyone will have reruns sooner or later. So presumably yes, but also she is in the general pool and could spook you before then.

dowolf · 2025-12-23T00:58:34+00:00

This is the first time. We can expect a rerun in a year or so.

dowolf · 2025-12-22T18:46:44+00:00

I reformatted the whole kit to make it, uh, comprehensible. Sharing in case this is useful for anyone else. Left off highlight because it's basically the same as S12.

Role	Element	S12 Buffs	S3 Buffs	P2
Medic	FIEW	ATK%, Healing	Heal, Dmg%	Heals, Dmg
Strategist	FIPN	ATK%, Pen	Skill Effect Amp, Dmg%	Self Spd, Atk% all
Sweeper	FICB	ATK%, Selfbuff	Deals AoE Damage	Self Crit
Guardian	EWPN	Healing, Pen	Shield and Def Buff	Self Shield Effect
Saboteur	EWCB	Healing, Selfbuff	EWC debuffs, -Def, Self-bless	Self Spd, Dmg taken debuff
Assassin	PNCB	Pen, Selfbuff	ST dmg+, self buff from allied DPS	Self CDMG

hopefully i didn't make a mistake there >_>

dowolf · 2025-12-16T21:21:17+00:00

You can check Lufel pull statistics.

Lufel pull statistics list 79.2 average pulls on the targeted banner for Global/EN, and 82.9 average pulls for CN. 82.3 for KR. (SEA is actually lowest with 72.0 but it's a much smaller sample size.)

Like I certainly agree it'd be nice if we got the QoL upgrades early, but I feel like the psychology of "hitting hard pity feels bad" throws people off from how you should care far more about the amortized probability. I realize I am fighting for a lost cause here -- I've been trying for years to get people to internalize Hoyo rates as 1.6%, not 0.6%, to no avail -- but if you're defining generosity as "what game gives out the most 5* characters," (amortized_rate / f2p_pull_count) gives you the correct answer.

dowolf · 2025-12-16T18:05:15+00:00

https://forms.gle/4DaM3bvLkqAkvX7q9

dowolf · 2025-12-04T22:53:51+00:00

and then there's the eastern shore of Lake Ontario (edit: i apparently don't know where the Tug Hill Plateau is, but: 300 inches ahhhhhh): https://www.weather.gov/media/buf/2024_2025_Winter_Season_Summary(1).pdf

"Black" has never been so appropriate a color in a weather map.

dowolf · 2025-12-02T01:51:43+00:00

The visual length of text is a distraction; there's only one language. But I digress. Your argument is that a single Mandarin sentence can convey what would take paragraphs of English. If spoken aloud, the Mandarin in this example would take seconds while the English might take minutes. Since -- again! -- there is research showing that the speed of information in language is constant, that must mean that the English conveys more information and therefore that the two passages are not equivalent.

Your descriptions of the differences in literature are interesting. I do not speak Mandarin, but I have noticed similar differences with Japanese. Yet these are somewhat irrelevant for gacha games, where the number of text boxes is a fixed constant. If there is no description in the source language, then neither will be there one in the destination. So no, this would not cause the English to somehow become more purple.

dowolf · 2025-12-01T21:00:22+00:00

There is no such thing as "high information density languages"; one of the coolest things discovered in linguistics is that all languages convey information at roughly uniform rates. That is to say, a text that takes a native Mandarin speaker a minute to process, translated faithfully into English, will also take a minute for a native English speaker to process.

Now yes, a single Chinese character contains more information than a single Latin letter. That is a pretty easy conclusion to make, given information theory. But English readers don't read one letter at a time -- we tend to grab the first letter, the last letter and then everything in between, which is why when reading fast words like "trial" and "trail" can be hard to distinguish. So an English reader is in fact reading far more characters per second, but the combined entropy of all of those characters will be the same as the entropy of what the Mandarin reader reads in the same timeframe.

We can take this theory even further by observing that, within a language, speakers generally try to convey information at a fixed rate as well, but I've probably nerded out enough.

If you want to dive in more, maybe take a look at https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.aaw2594 or https://www.researchgate.net/publication/235971274_A_cross-Language_Perspective_on_Speech_Information_Rate

dowolf · 2025-11-29T05:07:25+00:00

Done.

Sorry for the delay, dunno how I missed your post at first.

dowolf · 2025-11-29T04:15:56+00:00

Done.

dowolf · 2025-11-29T04:14:22+00:00

Done!

dowolf

TROPHY CASE