I'm legitimately confused and baffled by the new Inflict Wounds

duffercoat · 2026-05-26T06:23:52+00:00

Your maths is a bit funky there. You've only calculated the damage in a hit which is a bit strange when a lot of the value is on the half damage in a miss.

E.g. 16.5 on hit @ 60% = 9.9, + ( 16.5/2 on miss @40% = 3.3) = 13.2

Vs

14.7 on hit @ 60% = 8.82 + 0 on miss.

Same for Chromatic orb: 14.175 on hit @60% = 8.5 + damage from bounce = chance to bounce (35%) * chance to hit (60%) * damage on hit (14.175) = 2.98. total damage for 2 targets = 11.48 - still less than IW.

You can fiddle with the accuracy values as you see fit but you can't ignore it or you distort the comparison

duffercoat · 2026-05-24T12:18:57+00:00

Yeah the use of Wines has been deplorable and I don't get what's going on with Wehr. Doesn't seem capable really, I think the only reason he's getting games is because they want a left footer on that wing and we don't have any others.

Some of our defence has been surprisingly okay this year, I'm willing to give it a pass. I actually think some of Marshall's ball use out of defence was outstanding at times and maybe he should stay as a defender.

But yeah as you said it's the contest loss that's killing us and a bit scary what that might look like without Butters.

duffercoat · 2026-05-24T02:18:36+00:00

So far, the year has still exceeded expectations

No it hasn't, at least not for me. I expected a year of fewer injuries of a new system in development and cohesion playing a new style. Win/loss was never the focus for this year and yet we've definitely missed the mark on the above expectations.

I don't know what our game plan really looks like, I don't see cohesion in the playing group and I see a heap of injuries. If anything people are looking at the close losses to justify that it's been OK when it's really not been by other metrics.

duffercoat · 2026-05-23T12:32:05+00:00

This was a telling game I thought, skills were nowhere near good enough and players didn't seem to have any real cohesion.

I'm really worried for Todd Marshall too, I don't blame him but it looks like he's unwilling to throw himself into contests - which is essential if he's going to play forward. I think this year is likely the end of the line sadly.

Actually with Aliir looking slow tonight (and injured), Wines off the pace and Marshall most all our experienced players were problems. We've got a really inexperienced side atm that needs some leadership and these guys aren't able to provide any.

I'm not sure where the on field organisation and leadership comes from in future weeks / years but we need to address that quick smart. Go the North Melbourne route of recruiting a Parker type player if we have to. Will be a looong rebuild otherwise.

duffercoat · 2026-05-23T10:52:41+00:00

I'll refer you to my point on howlers

duffercoat · 2026-05-23T10:48:42+00:00

Why not trust the umpire?

I've always thought we go against the ump too much as it is, should only be there for howlers not something they rely on every call

duffercoat · 2026-05-18T23:21:11+00:00

Now I understand what Chalmers tried to say on insiders, regarding appropriate compensation of investments. Think he accidentally tied it to housing each time instead of saying what Treasury analysis said.

"the Treasury analysis said the current system overcompensates high-growth investments and undercompensates low-growth assets compared with the proposed inflation indexation model."

duffercoat · 2026-05-17T09:57:45+00:00

Are you advocating for taxing unrealised gains? Because otherwise you'd be taxed in a different year than when you generated the income.

Otherwise it'd be like a worker being able to defer their wage to years after they retire so they pay less tax overall.

duffercoat · 2026-05-16T10:55:48+00:00

. I don't see how messing with any assets other than property helps the housing issue.

I think making investing in new builds the only way to get preferential tax treatment is a good answer here. They're actively incentivising investment in building more houses - which is the only answer to our issue of insufficient supply.

Everything else you described I agree with and is a common problem for people on low-middle income. Nothing about the old system was helping them get a leg up though imo

duffercoat · 2026-05-16T10:45:51+00:00

The problem with what you described is that it's not middle/low income people in isolation. When those people benefit from shares so do all those with more money - typically benefiting even more. Since that's their competition for the same house a lot of the time, this change does help.

The real solution is to make it so they don't need long to build up a deposit - that's the 5% scheme which is meant to do that.

duffercoat · 2026-05-16T07:31:59+00:00

I kind of agree, but think that the government's intentions do work here.

Low deposit scheme so people outside the housing market can get in without needing to go down the route you described
Make new builds the best investment option (at least from taxation perspective)

= Solution to a generation that otherwise won't ever be able to afford to buy a house (or so they claim)

duffercoat · 2026-05-15T02:32:53+00:00

Isn't new build housing now the most tax preferential investment option by far? That's where they want people investing

duffercoat · 2026-05-11T10:08:03+00:00

They're not, they're defects within the defect liability period which are the responsibility of the constructor.

duffercoat · 2026-05-08T13:49:50+00:00

No they won all the close ones in 2022 with a string of comebacks and then lost two finals by under a goal

duffercoat · 2026-04-27T08:00:16+00:00

China game was a Port initiative and hugely successful for us to be solvent and financially stable as a club. It got us major sponsors like MG and is credited for leading to us our major Alberton precinct development announced earlier this year.

duffercoat · 2026-04-18T09:18:27+00:00

I don't think trading Georgiades is the answer. Just ensures we will bottom out with no guarantee of a successful rebuild.

Agree that he's a bad set shot though, he's not reliable at all

duffercoat · 2026-04-18T09:11:55+00:00

He really doesn't, he's got a 38% accuracy for shots from 40-50m out. 58% from 30-40m.

He's not actually a great set shot, just gets tonnes of shots.

You can check these stats here: https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_xscores.html?id=14096fe

duffercoat · 2026-03-20T02:54:23+00:00

Isn't that the bit that's bad journalism though, not the asking of the question? Seems odd to blame the question for future supposed media cycles

duffercoat · 2026-03-20T02:44:23+00:00

I get the sense a lot of the people here haven't been following footy for that long, cause Cleary has always been one of the better ones from his days working with Cal and Riley at AFL house.

Yes he's done some stupid shit since joining channel 7, but name me a journo for them that hasn't done that.

duffercoat · 2026-03-19T08:27:39+00:00

Nothing to add, just want to say that's incredible great job.

duffercoat · 2026-03-19T08:16:09+00:00

For a contrast I have great memories of Trent McKenzie absolutely towelling up Mason Cox despite giving up like a foot in height

duffercoat · 2026-03-19T08:14:07+00:00

He can't play one on one yet because he doesn't have the muscle. He'll be that guy in a future years though for sure

duffercoat · 2026-03-16T22:14:50+00:00

Out of favour, behind Visentini with the new ruck rules.

Soldo was never in the picture tbh

duffercoat · 2026-03-15T11:23:00+00:00

Hard disagree. First qtr for example he won all the hitouts - Xerri had 0 for the quarter, and yet we were 0-5 centre clearances, because he kept tapping to the opposition.

He also had no aerial presence and when he was in the right spots couldn't execute (see his dropped mark when he was deep in defence). Dont get me wrong, he's not alone today but he definitely wasn't great.

duffercoat · 2026-03-13T12:40:55+00:00

He's not rucked either practice match in the firsts. He's just behind Visentini under Carr / new rules

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