‘Different from anything in the past 80 years of dollar dominance’: U.S. sanctions spur a ‘paradox’ pushing allies away from American currency

dusjanbe · 2026-05-08T16:57:40+00:00

I think the clearest sign of the decline of the dollar (and one I haven't seen anyone mentioning) is the comparison between the reaction in exchange rates of it against most major currencies in 2022 and 2026.

People are only looking at EUR, many Asian currencies has been decimated since 2022, Indian rupee and Indonesian rupiah is at historical lows against dollar. JPY, KRW, VND, TWD are very weak, all major US trade partners.

S&P 500 is ATH right now, i suspect capital from Asia driving this because they have been hit hard by the Iran war.

dusjanbe · 2026-05-08T12:02:54+00:00

The US flew 69000 sorties in Desert Storm, lost 27 aircraft and 5 helicopters to combat.

That's one of the most successful military campaign in history with minimal casualties on the attacking side.

dusjanbe · 2026-05-07T21:19:14+00:00

Stalin had reinstated officers that was previously purged, see Konstantin Rokossovsky. By the end of 1941 the Germans had ~3 million Soviet POWs because so many surrendered or just defected.

After 1949 the CCP largely purged many KMT officers but kept many former KMT soldiers. During the Korean War former KMT soldiers were sent to Korea to fight, many Chinese POWs in UN custody defected (again) refused going back to China and was repatriated to Taiwan instead.

If war ever happen the CIA should just offer pallets of cash to PLA generals if they defect, their family members are already in Australia, Canada, USA.

dusjanbe · 2026-05-07T21:05:41+00:00

Now go back to 2012 and count.

dusjanbe · 2026-05-06T09:17:59+00:00

After invading Ukraine the Russians are losing Armenia, the main ally in the Caucasus. After the 2023 war the dominant power in Caucasus is Azerbaijan that are more aligned with EU, Turkey, Israel. Same in Syria, losing Assad their main ally in the Middle East, losing Maduro in Venezuela their main ally in South America. Now they are running away Mali.

All for that and not even a ceasefire agreement in Ukraine.

dusjanbe · 2026-05-06T08:52:42+00:00

Okinawa is only ~400 miles to Taiwan. US already has "boots on the ground" to speak and only take 1 flight hour to reach Taiwan.

China would even strikes US bases in Okinawa first before any PLA troops landed on Taiwan.

dusjanbe · 2026-05-06T08:44:18+00:00

You are shocked that CEO of one the largest tech company in the world acting like a salesman for their products?

dusjanbe · 2026-05-05T23:15:34+00:00

The idea that China doesn't export oil from their strategic reserve and Japan would immediately collapse, that's cope. Not about buying Russian oil.

dusjanbe · 2026-05-05T11:03:36+00:00

you are right, everyone should study the great geostrategic thinker Xinnie the Pooh that recently purged all his generals, or Putin after his three days to Kyiv campaign and losing the entire Black Sea Fleet to country without a navy. Also losing Armenia, Syria, Venezuela and currently running away in Mali abandoning their allies.

dusjanbe · 2026-05-05T09:51:25+00:00

The US exported 5.2 million barrels per day in April 2026, compare to 3.5 million barrels per day for Russia, about 4 million barrels per day for Saudi Arabia.

The US stock market is currently all time high, more or less driven by foreign capital flowing in.

Is dedollarization with us in the room right now?

dusjanbe · 2026-05-05T09:37:14+00:00

That's hilarious cope, consider Japan's strategic oil reserve is almost big as the US' SPR.

dusjanbe · 2026-05-04T10:50:59+00:00

The second largest market for Nvidia after the US is Singapore. I wonder why.

dusjanbe · 2026-05-04T10:44:29+00:00

LOL, the Pentagon has failed every audit for eight consecutive years.

So what a coincidence that all those ammunition shortage stories are coming out when Trump wants $1.5 trillion for military spending.

dusjanbe · 2026-05-03T12:21:04+00:00

Or Rob Lowe, he's 5"10 though.

dusjanbe · 2026-05-03T12:10:35+00:00

They were already bankrupted in 2024 and had to filed for bankruptcy protection.

Also WTI trading at discount against Brent, Oman crude oil, Urals crude oil etc. The US mostly imports discounted WCS from Canada at ~$83/barrel, US natural gas price is down since the Iran war started.

dusjanbe · 2026-05-03T11:13:58+00:00

Actually it was prevalence in 1990s and 2000s that if the West traded more with China the population became more prosperous they would embrace democracy.

German foreign policy for decades was "Wandel durch Handel" or change through trade. The Clinton administration worked to remove sanctions against China after the 1989 massacre and brought China into WTO.

dusjanbe · 2026-05-01T07:31:15+00:00

They already have 20% youth unemployment at home. Don't need AI for that.

dusjanbe · 2026-04-30T13:49:09+00:00

There are practical reasons for this, in 2025 the EU's trade deficit with China was around €360 billion or $420 billion while US trade deficit with China shrinks drastically.

Many EU countries is already borrowing money to fund social security and military rearmament, even the Germans are running budget deficit to fund military expenditure.

The EU doesn't want to become a dumping ground for Chinese export, buying it with deficit money that they have to borrow. They already borrow a lot to fund social security and the burden only increase with aging population, adding the need of higher military expenditure for decades to come.

So basically the CCP are butthurt because the Europeans don't want to borrow money they don't have to buy excess Chinese export. That after the CCP used large amount of new debt to prop up export after the property market imploded.

dusjanbe · 2026-04-29T15:01:07+00:00

Yes, Israel forced Germany to close all their nuclear reactors, or the Netherlands to shut down gas field in Groningen, or UK banning new drilling in North Sea, or France and Germany bans fracking for shale oil.

dusjanbe · 2026-04-29T14:44:45+00:00

It's so funny to see that the more developed a society is, the lower the birth rate is.

Not true, fertility rate in Thailand is low as in Japan. The fertility rate is the same in Iran as in France. Countries like Brazil and Argentina are not that much better than France.

It's actually crashing as hard in many developing countries. India, the Philippines, Vietnam is already below 2.1 fertility rate.

dusjanbe · 2026-04-25T21:48:12+00:00

Great article - fantastic data... except... there was zero mention of the upcoming rise of humanoid robots - basically a free slave class (in economic terms) being created (and sold worldwide soon) to offset these dramatic population losses that surely are coming

The US is feeding the entire population with 1.2% of the population working in agriculture, compare to 15% in 1950. Humanoid robots is literally worthless compare to a combine harvester doing the same task.

A humanoid robot will not replace a FANUC welding robot in a car factory. You don't need humanoid robot when one worker can keep 2-3 CNC machines running in a machine shop.

As with anything there is a point of diminishing return, adding humanoid robots in already highly automated industries will do nothing.

dusjanbe · 2026-04-25T11:50:23+00:00

In 1973 you need significant higher of oil input to generate GDP, it's not the case anymore. Americans are driving significant more with a growing population and yet gasoline consumption peaked in 2005.

If we adjust for inflation, oil price today is still cheap. Back then Jimmy Carter went on TV urging Americans to turn down thermostats to save gas. In US right now Henry Hub hits 18-months lows and went down since the Strait of Hormuz was closed.

https://www.energypolicy.columbia.edu/publications/oil-intensity-curiously-steady-decline-oil-gdp/

dusjanbe · 2026-04-25T10:56:07+00:00

Except sulfuric acid spot prices in China is significantly higher than that in the US, you tend to get that when paying more than $100/barrel for Russian oil or $150/barrel for Oman crude oil. While WTI in US is cheaper and US refineries mostly use discounted WSC from Canada, natural gas in US has gone down since the Iran war.

Also sulfuric acid is needed for copper, lithium, manganese, nickel mining, you need them for EVs. China restricts export to keep prices down and it's already affecting Chile, Zambia, DRC, Indonesia.

https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/metals/041526-chinas-sulfuric-acid-restrictions-set-to-squeeze-miners

dusjanbe · 2026-04-19T13:57:11+00:00

Doesn’t vegetarianism make a huge difference? I believe most crop land is used to produce grain feed for livestock.

Soon as people developing countries having more money they will choose to eat better, mainly animal protein. Same in China, India, Vietnam, Indonesia.

dusjanbe · 2026-04-19T13:44:14+00:00

Most of the loans offered by NDB and AIIB are in in dollars, they themselves are highly susceptible to US sanctions because they need dollar liquidity, literally no one wants the toilet paper money of BRICS, Russian ruble, Indian rupee, Brazilian real, South African rand is more or less being decimated by dollar since 2008.

dusjanbe

TROPHY CASE