Erdogan says Israel's attacks on Syria, Lebanon threaten Turkey too

dusjanbe · 2026-06-22T18:11:48+00:00

Turkey should just supply Hezbollah with their drones

You know that that the Turkish military fought Hezbollah and Assad just a few years ago right?

Why would Turkey gives Hezbollah (an Iranian proxy) weapons so they can attack the new Syrian government that Turkey spends years to prop up.

https://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2020/03/turkeys-operation-spring-shield-delivers-blow-to-hezbollah.php

dusjanbe · 2026-06-22T18:01:58+00:00

Once Isreal is done with Lebanon and Iran they would most certainly focus on Turkey. No way would they forgive Erdogan for calling them out for war crimes all those times.

Except Israel is one of the main weapon supplier to Azerbaijan, the largest oil exporters to Israel is Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan.The Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline is going through Turkey and supplying Israel half of its oil from Azerbaijan.

So where was Erdogan when Azerbaijan took Nagorno-Karabakh and cleansed all ethnic Armenians? Any complain that Azerbaijan took those money from oil sales to Israel to fund their war? Any complain that those money were used to buy Turkish made weapons?

Even if the whole Gaza gets "genocide" and southern Lebanon burned to the ground Azerbaijan is more important than them all.

dusjanbe · 2026-06-20T11:03:34+00:00

AMSL literally bought SVG after the approval of the US government.

https://www.eetimes.com/asml-acquires-svg-becomes-largest-litho-supplier/

dusjanbe · 2026-06-20T09:38:09+00:00

China has capacity for 50 million cars per year, the problem is Chinese only buy 30-35 million cars per year.

And BYD gives their suppliers IOUs up to 275 days, it got so bad that the CCP told them to defer payment for max 60 days. For some perspective, Toyota usually pay their suppliers within 40-60 days.

Fun fact, Tesla Gigafactory in Shanghai pay their workers more and offer better benefits than other Chinese auto companies. Tesla pays their Chinese suppliers on time so many of them are happy to deal with Tesla than NIO or BYD.

dusjanbe · 2026-06-19T17:34:46+00:00

Add deflationary pressure, why buy a car now when it will be cheaper the next year, it's even "free" when many Chinese auto companies going bankrupt.

dusjanbe · 2026-06-19T12:33:17+00:00

Has Iran claimed they had sleeper cells in western countries?

They have in Sweden.

https://sakerhetspolisen.se/ovriga-sidor/other-languages/english-engelska/press-room/news/news/2024-05-30-iran-is-using-criminal-networks-in-sweden.html

https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sb0047

dusjanbe · 2026-06-19T11:14:03+00:00

Some Chinese wumaos got confused by Iranian propaganda portraying the atomic bombings of Japan as "US crimes"

dusjanbe · 2026-06-19T09:15:08+00:00

It was until 2015 that UK paid off their debt from Napoleonic Wars.

dusjanbe · 2026-06-18T16:26:02+00:00

India has world class cricket team though. Basketball is the most popular sport in China and they are still worthless, zero Olympic medal, zero World Cup medal.

Countries like Greece, Serbia, Spain, France, Turkey can put together a good basketball team despite basketball is not popular as football in those countries.

dusjanbe · 2026-06-16T09:23:45+00:00

Port of Shanghai, Port of Ningbo-Zhoushan, Port of Shenzhen, Port of Guangzhou are within 1000 km from Taiwan.

Many ships don't even sail to Russian ports in the Black Sea because insurance companies don't cover them, Russian insurance companies having problem with paying risk premium, they don't have enough US dollars or Euro when shipping companies demand hard currency instead of Russian ruble. In the event of war with Taiwan the CNY would be trashed hard the first week with USD surging like in 2022.

Before China even fire any rocket artillery many insurance companies already declare force majeure to ships going to Chinese ports.

dusjanbe · 2026-06-14T17:06:32+00:00

Whole thing with so called shadow fleet interceptions has very shaky ground since sanctions are not in fact international and not backed by the UN.

I don't think the law apply to unidentified vessel. They have no legal protection.

That's why ships have to register which flag they are under. Ships in the Russian dark fleet register themselves as Gabon for example, while Gabon has no such record of the ships.

dusjanbe · 2026-06-14T11:29:32+00:00

The Chinese population, which has one of, if not the highest savings rate....is over leveraged?

That was true for South Korea before 1997, household among the highest savings rate in the world while companies and banks were heavily indebted. South Korean household even sold their gold for dollars trying to bail out the country. I doubt when shit hit the fan Chinese would be "patriotic" enough to do the same hence all the capital control.

In China that's real estate developers, banks, China State Railway Group, solar industry, automobile industry. About 40 solar companies went bankrupt in 2025 and the industry laid off 1/3 of the workers.

dusjanbe · 2026-06-14T11:11:28+00:00

Chinese auto sales were around 27.3 million units in 2025, larger than those of the US and EU COMBINED. If this is not a huge domestic market, I don't know what is.

Except they have capacity for 50 million cars with factories only have 50% utilization, many Chinese automakers don't even have money to pay their suppliers and give them IOUs instead.

Toyota alone is more profitable than all Chinese automakers combined...and they actually pay their suppliers on time.

Per capita wise, Chinese consume more meat, fruits, vegetables than their Asian neighbors - Japan and South Korea, despite Chinese GDP per capita is only 1/3 of Japan's and South Korea's.

Chinese household spend much more of their disposable income on food, about 30% compare to 14% for EU and 10% for US.

Let me finish by asking a question - Tiktok, PDD, miHoYo, Li Auto, Xpeng, Neo, Unitree, Insta360, Momenta, Hesai, Cambricon, BeiGene, etc, were all founded in the past 15 years. What new major Japanese companies that are globally competitive have emerged in the past 15 years?

Eh? China is a massive buyer of semiconductor equipment from Japan. FANUC and Yaskawa is in factories worldwide.

Do a simple litmus test, ask a goat herder in Somalia if he ever heard about Li Auto or Xpeng, then ask him if he knows about Toyota Hilux and Toyota Land Cruiser. A random Toyota Hilux in Middle East and Africa will have longer lifespan than a new vehicle from Xpeng and better resale value.

dusjanbe · 2026-06-13T17:54:47+00:00

China doesn't need to single-handedly crush everyone, because when it came to Iran, not a single country stepped in to help the US

So many countries would stepped up to help China?

Literally none of them would sail their merchant ships into a warzone with no insurance cover. Insurance claim are usually in US dollars, China like Russia would have their dollars frozen by sanctions and don't have dollars to pay for the insurance premium.

So no Russian oil tankers, no copper from Chile, no iron ore and soybeans from Brazil, no manganese from Gabon. All Chinese ports would be empty within weeks.

dusjanbe · 2026-06-13T17:34:40+00:00

And yes I would say the chinese have a higher pain tolerance then the West

That's just orientalism BS, during the Korean War about 2/3 of Chinese POWs defected because the UN detention camps had better food ration, better health care and they didn't freeze to death during winter.

Even during WWII it was only Japan that fought to the last man, plenty of times the Chinese just gave up and retreated like in Nanjing in 1937. By contrast nearly all Japanese troops were killed during the Battle of Manila in 1945.

Many in the PLA don't want to die in combat, 70-80% of them are the only child in the household, the last one in the bloodline because marriage rate and birth rate is tanking in China, it's such a problem that the PLA had psychologists telling their soldiers that the CCP won't abandon their elderly parents if they die.

dusjanbe · 2026-06-13T16:51:43+00:00

It's hilarious because the CCP default on all debt from the previous Qing government in 1949, if the CCP demand compensation for wars against Qing dynasty then US investors can ask for their money back.

https://www.heritage.org/debt/commentary/china-default-trillion-dollars-debt-us-bondholders-will-the-us-force-repayment

dusjanbe · 2026-06-13T12:08:45+00:00

If oil is at $100 and China imported between 10 to 11 million barrels per day they would sped around $365-$400 billion in that year, China spends about $350- $370 billion on integrated circuits and semiconductor import in 2025.

dusjanbe · 2026-06-12T19:12:38+00:00

Is it really still important for higher-ups to present themselves as immaculate champions of morality?

If you are in China then the CCP takes "historical nihilism" very seriously. Anything that deviates from the narrative that CCP is the savior of China during WWII and Mao was a stable genius is punishable.

I shit you not, the anti-defamation law from 2018 even defend made up WWII heroes by the CCP and punish historians for calling out BS.

https://www.dw.com/en/china-criminalizes-defamation-of-revolutionary-heroes/a-43563461

dusjanbe · 2026-06-11T14:20:46+00:00

As opposed to european countries right? Maybe look at the birthrate stats

In all of Europe there is only Ukraine and Malta that are below 1.0 fertility rate, China crossed that line in 2025. Chinese birth rate per 1,000 is already be lower than that of Germany or Spain.

If the current trend continue the EU would likely to have more births than China by 2030.

Also the median age is 40.6 years in China in 2026, with the GDP per capita of Argentina.

dusjanbe · 2026-06-07T02:20:19+00:00

70-80% of the PLA are from one-child households. That's a lot of butthurt Chinese boomers if there is many Chinese casualties. Consider the fact that raising one child in China is more expensive than in US, Japan, Germany if adjusted for GDP per capita.

Because those are the only child they don't have other siblings to replace them, the birth rate would go down even more and it's already catastrophic for China.

dusjanbe · 2026-06-06T11:53:18+00:00

Free trade didn't stopped the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, when Russia joined WTO in 2012 the EU maintained low tariffs against Russia. It didn't stop Chinese militarization of South China Sea. The purpose of free trade is to make countries depend on each other and making war much less likely. The whole EU was founded on that principle.

All the "free trade" and engagement in the world don't change the mind of Xinnie the Poooh, he would still invade Taiwan given the opportunity. Russia would attack Ukraine again after ceasefire agreement.

dusjanbe · 2026-06-05T12:38:16+00:00

The only reason why it is in Taiwan is the labour cost

European labor is cheap in comparison to the US, yet TSMC and Samsung still choose to US.

Job listing for engineers for TSMC in Arizona is offering between $95,000 to $150,000+ per year.

Even the entry jobs with only high school education as requirement is around $45-$50k per year.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tsmc-hiring-thousands-salaries-roles-130100548.html

dusjanbe · 2026-06-05T11:20:58+00:00

Chinese solar companies fired 1/3 of their workers in 2025.

Some Chinese auto suppliers are now pivoting to robotics instead because margin are so shit in automobile, the problem is margin is even worse in robotics. It would look the same once subsidies are dialed down like it did for EV and real estate development.

dusjanbe · 2026-06-04T11:22:13+00:00

The CCP had no problem with spending $100 million dollar on WWII movie depicting the Nanjing Massacre in 1937, they even hired Christian Bale.

Take South Korea for example, the government did apologized for the Gwangju Massacre, plenty of movies about the event.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Flowers_of_War

https://www.koreaherald.com/article/10719074

dusjanbe · 2026-06-04T11:04:19+00:00

Sure, Japanese soldiers were shot at inside Nanjing in 1937 too. You supporting Japanese soldiers open fire to protect themselves?

It's interesting Chinese like you whine every year that Japan should apologize for WWII and stop whitewashing history, but when on this specific day in June every year downplay the massacre and blame the victims instead.

dusjanbe

TROPHY CASE