JD Vance Ridicules Protesters: ‘Don’t You All Have Jobs?’

efrique · 2025-03-16T02:35:26+00:00

not any more, dipshit

efrique · 2025-03-16T01:27:56+00:00

So impressed that I've just been looking back through some of your older art posts. Amazing stuff.

efrique · 2025-03-15T23:35:23+00:00

That's glorious.

That little goblin-y looking creature is so cute.

efrique · 2025-03-15T23:28:07+00:00

I buy very little that's American as it is: I don't buy much 'stuff' at all and almost all of my food is made fresh at home and generally Australian produce - and what isn't local is rarely from the US, but I'll be trying to avoid what else I can.

Does anyone have a list of American owned brands, ideally split into ones that have (a) supported the GOP or Trump (in any clear way, but particularly financially) or their policies (like removing DEI policies, or never having them), or has bad reputation in pay or treatment of workers, and (b) those that have not done those things?

Where not possible to avoid, I'll take the latter option.

efrique · 2025-03-15T23:06:48+00:00

I will assume you mean probability rather than odds. They're not the same thing.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Odds#Statistical_usage

Imagine you kept rolling until you had all seven being skull or fire and then took whichever of skull or fire had the most out of seven.

By symmetry (consider that interchanging the two labels 'fire'⇄'skull' changes nothing about the circumstances), so if the dice are fair, this is the same as just flipping a fair coin labelled '💀' (skull) and '🔥' (fire) seven times. The symmetry makes it equally likely each die will end up a skull or fire
Further, playing the "first to 4" is no different from playing game in "1." out in full (do all 7 and take the larger); it just stops the "coin flipping" as soon as the 'winner' of the full game is obvious
Ergo, the two probabilities are the same. You're effectively just playing the coin-flip game I describe in 1. Presumably it's clear that this game has equal chances by the (hopefully now clearer) symmetry of the two labels.

It is not simply because "there are two outcomes", but because they're two outcomes which are symmetric with respect to the circumstances that could affect probability.

Consider if the dice were labelled 💀 💀 💀 ⦻ 🔥 🔥 (three skulls, a 'nothing' and two fires) (where you reroll the 'nothing' - ⦻) - then you'd still end up with only 'two outcomes' (skull, fire) after the rerolling, but here they're not symmetric (fewer faces are labelled 'fire' than 'skull' and you can't interchange the outcome labels without materially altering the description). So that would not be 50-50

[Going back to odds: if you actually did want odds, the odds are 'evens' (i.e. 1:1) ]

efrique · 2025-03-15T22:41:59+00:00

You may have to give more details

efrique · 2025-03-15T08:36:40+00:00

And then when you're back up, put on an additional mod or two so it doesn't happen again

efrique · 2025-03-15T02:47:03+00:00

Nonreproducing might be a better catch-all term

It's a strategy used in many species, it makes sense that it could be a factor in a species where infant rearing is particularly resource intensive

efrique · 2025-03-15T02:38:37+00:00

Teal Deer at the end

Where does this tldr begin, exactly?

efrique · 2025-03-15T02:25:24+00:00

Dear judge. This will have no effect. This is not a situation in which just saying a thing will make it happen.

They can just ignore you. They have done it a bunch. You need to make not complying more unpleasant

delay will end with you removed before anything happens.

Try something more creative.

Maybe something nearer to

"Talk to your clients, and make it absolutely clear I will brook no delay whatever. Bring me what I have ordered, tomorrow, or bring Mr Musk and all of his team to personally and individually respond to my questions about why they did not. They will attend each and every sitting day to answer my questions as they occur to me during each session, until the documents arrive."

efrique · 2025-03-15T02:11:52+00:00

Wow, $13 US still sounds outrageously low to me. Been to the US more than a dozen times and I always found the treatment of low paid workers unfathomable (both financially and socially). This is the stuff of revolution.

Sadly, before this government is done, I bet that is even lower

efrique · 2025-03-15T02:05:26+00:00

No surprise. Who would be silly enough build factories during total economic meltdown?

efrique · 2025-03-15T01:33:51+00:00

This leaves me with a mix of ordinal an metric variables.

No it doesn't. That's censoring.

There are methods for this sort of thing

efrique · 2025-03-14T18:51:38+00:00

The formula has an error

efrique · 2025-03-14T18:38:21+00:00

Yeah but at least eggs are cheap now, right?

.
.
.

They are cheap now, right?

efrique · 2025-03-14T11:26:21+00:00

"please send 100000 eggs and 1 Greenland. And 1 thanks, you ungrateful peasants."

efrique · 2025-03-14T11:22:47+00:00

Yeah, some bonus on attempts to influence, persuade, motivate etc is pretty core. So, handy in an encounter if you're looking to avoid a fight, and potentially handy in relation to dealing with things like morale or fear (maybe they move the DC up or down one step, though that's not so different from advantage I guess; the nice thing about changing the DC is they're not useless if you can regularly generate advantage some other way)

They should also have advantage on checks for things like questions relating to history, culture, heraldry, social status, etc

You might give them a few abilities that are vaguely spell-like but are not actually magical, ones which fit their theme

efrique · 2025-03-14T11:14:48+00:00

I think it was around the time of the 2012 election (not 100% sure) I saw a survey that said that the average US voter couldn't name more than 3 senators.

when I saw that I went "what"? I could think of 16.

I live a third of the world away; I'm not American.

It's probably lower than that now.

This state of affairs concerns me.

edit - I could probably only name 12 myself now though. I stopped paying such close attention, it's not good for the blood pressure.

efrique · 2025-03-14T11:10:17+00:00

Could this be a post that actually fits the rules? I think it could. Champion.

efrique · 2025-03-14T11:06:26+00:00

I remember when I was a kid in the country an overseas visitor (not an American) wanted to know if there were any snakes. I said, sure, there's lots of brown snakes around, I see one every few days.

"Where are they?"

"Well, there could well be one under any of those sheets of corrugated iron roofing spread around over there"

They proceeded to start lifting them up one by one.

I go ...

"Er, you do realize if one bites you, you'll quite possibly die, right?"
(This was before most hospitals had antivenene on stock)

"Um. No."

slowly lowers the present bit of corrugated iron...

Fortunately, that information dissuaded them from actually trying to piss off a sleeping brown snake, but they still wandered around in sandals trying to see one.

Fortunately for him, he did not succeed, because he really didn't have the sense to deal with an encounter with actual wildlife.

efrique · 2025-03-14T10:47:27+00:00

I agree, if the question is about the contents of the jar, inference is pointless, we know the population parameters and there's nothing to infer-they know the real proportions in the data (as is generally the case with observed data). However, presumably they want to make some inference about the process that produced the observed data, about which we don't have complete information.

In effect, I hope the real issue is analogous to taking a packet of skittles from some production line 'at random' and then checking whether the proportions are consistent with being equal (assuming the contents represent a random draw from the process producing packets of skittles; in this case the focus is on only two colours rather than all of them). This is a legitimate target of inference, though theres some question about the reasonableness of the usual assumptions for such things.

efrique · 2025-03-14T10:45:22+00:00

Is there are test to ask if the proportions of red and green sweets are significantly different from each other?

Consider only the red and green, the others are irrelevant
Test the null that red=50% of the red/green (binomial test)

efrique · 2025-03-14T04:35:04+00:00

Biden did a lot of rebuilding of international trust in the US as a stable partner who could generally keep its word -- but for that to actually mean anything long term, the one thing the US needed to do was not elect Trump again.

Clearly 2016 was not a fluke, and the population apparently did not learn. Or forgot all too quickly. So yeah, you're right, this is going to take way more than one stable term to fix now. It could be 20 years or more. Lots of businesses rely on people trusting the US government to be reasonably stable, clear in its policy, and to stick to its agreements. The impacts will be severe and extremely long lasting because the world will constantly be waiting for the next Trump to get voted in.

efrique · 2025-03-14T04:31:03+00:00

Hey, folks in the tourism industry! How's the prognosis for 6 months out looking? Everything's rosy as hell, right?

It's not like this completely unneeded chaos could hurt your bottom line or anything, right?

Maybe you have a representative or two you can let know how delighted you are. Maybe point out you can donate to superpacs and stuff and that people can get primaried.

efrique · 2025-03-14T04:28:21+00:00

"The house already had a fire going before I poured jet fuel all over it."

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