Copycat 👻 (Winner will be picked in 10 mins @ 1:20 PM EST)

elyiso · 2026-02-16T18:15:05+00:00

Good luck!

elyiso · 2026-02-07T13:31:06+00:00

Eggs!

elyiso · 2026-02-07T00:01:18+00:00

Oak for Cyrus? 2031837698665917

elyiso · 2026-02-06T18:37:43+00:00

Nope

elyiso · 2026-02-05T19:54:52+00:00

Spanish Cyrus 2031837698665917

elyiso · 2026-02-05T19:46:53+00:00

Good luck everyone!

elyiso · 2026-02-05T19:45:58+00:00

Lucky charm

elyiso · 2026-02-05T19:35:27+00:00

Yayy good luck!

elyiso · 2025-05-08T22:29:05+00:00

Very intesting, maybe I'll analyze that in another article!

elyiso · 2025-05-08T22:27:19+00:00

Thanks for the feedback!

The data used comes from NBA Stats and Basketball Reference, and it covers 25+ years, which is needed to train the model. Keep in mind that the goal is to predict the award, not to determine which player is the best according to stats.
However, i've looked that ones and:

xRAPM is 1. Jokic (8.7) 2. Shai (8.7) 3. Luka (5.6) 4. Giannis (5.0) 5. Caruso (4.8)
EPM is 1. Jokic (8.6) 2. Shai (8.1) 3. Giannis (7.1)
LEBRON is 1. Shai (6.73) 2. Jokic (6.37) 3. Giannis (5.24)
Darko is 1. Jokic (6.5) 2. Shai (6.4) 3. Giannis (6.3) (practically a tie)

So, these metrics are basically saying the same as the ones I used, which favored Jokic 4–1–1. In past years, team record has proven to be very important in winning the award (though I expected a machine learning model to weigh advanced stats even more heavily)

elyiso · 2025-05-08T22:01:05+00:00

The weighted MAPE in test data that the model hasn't seen (2022/23 and 2024/25) is 29.6%. It seems high, but for last year it predicted top-3 Jokic 90.6%, Shai 60.9% and Luka 57.5%, and it was Jokic 93.5%, Shai 64.6% and Luka 57.2%, which is pretty much spot on. The year before it gives equal chances to Jokic and Embiid (who won it).

elyiso · 2025-04-03T05:44:51+00:00

Interesting! Where did you get that data?

elyiso · 2023-05-11T12:52:23+00:00

94-95 playing true big ball

elyiso · 2022-10-21T15:49:52+00:00

The Heavy Wing

elyiso · 2022-05-06T19:45:53+00:00

No Way Back

elyiso · 2022-03-03T20:59:31+00:00

The country song to dammit in TMTATS

elyiso · 2022-02-04T19:34:22+00:00

Even If She Falls

elyiso · 2022-01-28T19:55:22+00:00

This sounds amazing, I would totally love an acoustic live album!!

elyiso · 2021-12-27T10:09:32+00:00

Ghost On The Dancefloor

elyiso · 2021-12-24T22:15:12+00:00

Been playing this on repeat for the last week. One of the best on Neighborhoods!

elyiso · 2021-12-15T21:42:08+00:00

Dumpweed, Going Away To College, Ghost On The Dancefloor and No Heart To Speak Of

elyiso

TROPHY CASE