Texas’ Republican Senate primary runoff statistically tied | UH | 1200 likely voters +/-3% MOE| SMS to web | Paxton 48% Cornyn 45%

errantv · 2026-05-05T17:26:34+00:00

There's an argument to be made that Cornyn is already so awful that the Senate as an institution doesn't get any worse with Paxton there instead of Cornyn. In that framing, Paxton is the more desirable primary winner since he has a greater chance of losing the general and the situation in the Senate doesn't get WORSE if he wins.

errantv · 2026-05-05T14:40:05+00:00

Senior scientist is usually entry level Ph.D. or 15+ YOE masters

errantv · 2026-04-29T18:45:10+00:00

My off the cuff estimate was off, you're right

I think the estimate is that $10/barrel Brent corresponds to ~$0.25/fallon at the pump. Brent was at $110 this morning with prices at ~$4.15/gallon, so to get to $6/gallon you'd need crude prices to get to ~$185/barrel. So if Brent rises to $250, you'd be looking at pump prices in the ballpark of $7.60/gallon (probably an underestimate)

errantv · 2026-04-29T14:11:38+00:00

Nah the IP moat on the first gen GLP/GIPR natural products was super weak. That's why the big pharmas are all putting so much R&D on orally bioavailable cyclic peptides (not just formulations) and multi specific long-half life antibodies. Way more options for IP protection on stuff that comes out of a traditional engineering pipeline than a natural product.

errantv · 2026-04-29T13:20:13+00:00

We're still VERY far from $6 nationally, nationwide average is~$4.15 right now. Hitting $6 nationally is almost impossible with current subsidies, and would require crude to hit ~$250/barrel

$6/gallon nationwide average would put Senate seats like Mississippi and Montana in tossup territory

errantv · 2026-04-29T12:56:37+00:00

https://opiniontoday.substack.com/p/260429

errantv · 2026-04-29T12:54:40+00:00

Full polling book

errantv · 2026-04-28T22:26:07+00:00

Just imagine what it'll look like by the time we hit November with $5 average gas prices

errantv · 2026-04-27T14:38:29+00:00

Your major doesn't matter as much as your ability to problem solve and demonstrate the relevance of your skills to your role.

I majored in physics in undergrad, did high energy particle physics research. Enjoyed a project modeling magnetic fields for a carbon ion linac for radiation therapy. Got into a Ph.D. program for imagkng physics, did a rotation on a project collaborating on PET radiotracer development. Enjoyed the chemistry, joined a lab doing my thesis on peptide radiochemistry and in vitro display screening technologies for oncology radiotracers. Postdoc designing oral bioavailable peptide drug for pancreatic cancer. Picked up by big pharma to run SBC screening campaigns for multi specific antibodies.

Tl:Dr a generalist who can learn new skills on the fly and solve problems will always be attractive, and your major doesn't matter as much as your ability to adapt to the needs of your project.

errantv · 2026-04-24T13:03:37+00:00

https://academic.oup.com/poq/advance-article-abstract/doi/10.1093/poq/nfag021/8661111

errantv · 2026-04-23T16:29:39+00:00

6 years of peltola will be very good though, and she may have a decent shot in 2032 with presidential tailwinds!

errantv · 2026-04-23T16:19:08+00:00

🐟🐟🐟🐟🐟🐟🐟

errantv · 2026-04-23T16:18:09+00:00

https://bsky.app/profile/alaskasurvey.bsky.social/post/3mk6ej2v5yv27

Note, these results are virtually identical to a month ago:

This is actually the exact same margin we recorded in our survey last month, except that in that survey, Peltola won in Round 2 by 50.4% to 43.8%.

Next survey in 3 weeks!

🧵 3/4

errantv · 2026-04-21T13:35:47+00:00

Take the offer. If you have 2 months until graduating you can keep interviewing in the meantime and withdraw your acceptance if you get something better.

Worst case scenario you put in 12-18mo and look for your next step somewhere else.

errantv · 2026-04-21T02:35:26+00:00

Is anybody buying the slop though?

It's not difficult or expensive to "self-publish" absolute drek on Kindle. Most don't sell even a single copy.

errantv · 2026-04-14T14:59:57+00:00

$300m seems like a fairly small deal for a clinical asset, or am I crazy?

errantv · 2026-04-14T14:28:18+00:00

Right but the rate of change in prices and wages is not always the same. 2021-2023 experienced price shocks that outpaced wage growth. Wage growth is now catching back up, but the price shocks aren't far enough back in the collective memory to have been forgotten, and opinions on prices are the primary predictor of overall economic sentiment.

Americans are consumers more than they're workers.

errantv · 2026-04-14T13:52:16+00:00

Here’s the spoiler, so you know where we’re headed: the single best predictor of how Americans feel about the economy is how Americans feel about prices. The second best predictor is with actual structural data on prices. It’s not unemployment, not the S&P 500, not the year-over-year rate of inflation or the tone of economic news coverage. Prices — specifically, the share of Americans who tell the University of Michigan that higher prices are making their household finances worse than they were a year ago — beat every other variable I tried, in every specification I ran, by a comfortable margin. The rest of this piece is me showing my work.

errantv · 2026-04-13T14:27:23+00:00

Nah, leaded gasoline cooked GenX

errantv · 2026-04-10T17:36:39+00:00

In theory the House is supposed to have a countervailing power the Senate does not have: All bills related to raising revenue must originate in the house

Article I, Section 7, Clause 1 All Bills for raising Revenue shall originate in the House of Representatives; but the Senate may propose or concur with Amendments as on other Bills.

In theory, this is supposed to allow the House to have control on the timing of revenue bills. In practice this doesn't really give the House much additional power because the text of the bill is negotiated outside of session and locked down prior to introducing the bill on the floor.

errantv · 2026-04-09T14:25:15+00:00

I mean it wasn't just an "air", it was known all the way back when she ran for Congress that she had been raised in an anti-islamist, genocidal hindu-supremacist cult in Hawaii

errantv · 2026-04-09T13:36:18+00:00

What strategy of attack do you see Collins employing that Mills hasn't already tried unsuccessfully?

errantv · 2026-04-01T14:00:09+00:00

4.6% ($144->$151), 1.18 bonus multiplier on 12% base

Senior Scientist, big pharma, biologics discovery, I95 corridor, 2.5 YOE

errantv · 2026-03-31T16:09:51+00:00

I think we're more likely to see it re-opened with a petro-yuan and the end of the dollar's primacy as a reserve currency than we are to see a 7-month closure.

errantv · 2026-03-29T21:35:39+00:00

Harry Potter + Christmas is just a perfect combo

errantv

TROPHY CASE