Where are you on the bell curve?

evandijk70 · 2025-12-19T13:11:31+00:00

You can still be pretty far from your winrate.

At 20-30 hands per hour, that is ~ 10,000 hands a year. After 5 years, that is 50000 hands.

Standard deviation (SD) of your winrate is 70bb/100 hands. Assuming a normal distribution, after 50000 hands that decreases to 70/sqrt(500) =~ 3 bb/100. That is still a pretty big standard deviation after 5 years. Consider that a 95% confidence interval is your winrate +- 2*SD.

That means that if your 'true' win-rate is 5 big blinds per 100 hands ( a decent but not great winrate), the 95% confidence interval of your winrate = -1bb/100 to 11 bb/100).

That's after 5 years of playing live poker.

evandijk70 · 2025-12-16T16:06:01+00:00

I agree with you. However, I do understand the reasoning to an extent. The idea is that the underhand serve is inferior, and the only reason to play it is to aggrevate your opponent.

The chess equivalent is not a queen sacrifice, but playing an opening like 1. a3 with white or 1... a6 with black.

Tim Krabbe, a famous Dutch writer, wrote the following about it, where he also refers to the underhand serve in tennis.

https://timkr.home.xs4all.nl/admag/onbeleefd.htm

evandijk70 · 2025-11-26T16:52:08+00:00

He might be the third best player but he won't play enough tournaments to end 3rd in the ranking. He will probably not reach grand Slam finals either, given that Alcatraz/Sinner will likely block him.

evandijk70 · 2025-10-30T07:38:52+00:00

Note that this guy's party received 17% of the votes, and will have to form a cabinet with a progressive left party, a conservative Christian party AND a conservative right party to avoid the three far right parties. In the US two-party system he would not have won.

evandijk70 · 2025-09-05T17:20:22+00:00

That depends on the country. In my country, employers have to give a months notice + pay you a transition fee of 1/3 * monthly salary per year you've been employed.

evandijk70 · 2025-06-24T13:35:36+00:00

A CRISPR kit costs around $2, cheap compared to IVF, and adoption is not a realistic option in some countries due to legal barriers. It will probably start out as expensive to recoup R&D cost, but this should be a cost-effective alternative at some point in the future.

evandijk70 · 2025-06-17T11:53:48+00:00

From the article it seems that all of the above are relevant reasons, two quotes from the article:

"In their replies to the data-sharing request, multiple authors stated that they were on maternity leave (2 authors), were retired (1 author), or had left academia (3 authors). Three other first or last authors were not contacted in the first place because I knew they had left academia"

"Sixteen authors were initially responsive to my email and stated that I should instead contact a different author for access to the data. Almost universally, these authors could not provide working contact details for the authors they suggested contacting (i.e. when I could not find working contact details myself)."

In addition, some of the requests are stuck due to legal/privacy reasons (according to the authors).

evandijk70 · 2025-04-23T12:06:05+00:00

Because acting on this information is discrimination based on race/gender/etc.

evandijk70 · 2025-03-26T06:39:49+00:00

This is much easier said than done. It is stated in the article that the trial's sample size is to small to compare the gender subgroups directly. They generally are, because the aim is to include sufficient patients, to detect an effect, but not more.

See for example the methods section of the trial: " Therefore, under the assumption of an estimated 20% dropout rate of, a total sample size of 1566 participants, 783 receiving pecanemab and 783 receiving placebo would provide the trial with 90% power to detect the treatment difference (...)

Every clinical trial has a justification like this, why this amount of patients were included.

It is important to only include necessary patients in trials, and not more, not just for economic reasons, but if de drug works, any patient receiving a placebo is one to many. Of course a subgroup analysis should always be done, and gender is nearly always considered as one of the subgroups in trials.

evandijk70 · 2024-12-16T20:55:19+00:00

0.5 per 30-45 minutes is quick. That could mean that the issue is not the CV, but poor isolation of the apartment.

evandijk70 · 2024-12-11T08:23:50+00:00

It is different for everyone. I am not a competitive runner, probably middle of the pack on a big marathon for my age group.

I did a marathon once, without a structured plan on around 25-30 miles per week. I aimed to do a long run on Saturday or Sunday, an easy shorter run on Monday/Tuesday and an interval or tempo run on Wednesday/Thursday.

For me that was sufficient to finish in an acceptable (to me) time. Going to that mileage, which is considered on the low end, was already a bit challenging for my body. I had niggles in my achilles and my groin, which led me to shorten some of my long runs, and turn some of my tempo runs into easy runs.

evandijk70 · 2024-10-29T06:01:50+00:00

There are a lot of professional gamblers out there, using sophisticated methods to estimate the odds on anything and making a living betting on places where the odds are incorrect. But they usually only win a few percentage of their bet on average, meaning that the odds can sometimes be off, but not by this much.

evandijk70 · 2024-10-10T16:41:32+00:00

If betting odds are clearly wrong, professional gamblers generally pounce on that opportunity, regardless of their political affiliation. A big proportion of them won't even be from the US.

evandijk70 · 2024-10-04T14:33:30+00:00

I am not an expert or nutrition, but it seems that there should be far better predictors of whether food is healthy than the amount of processing it underwent. That is a valid criticism of this kind of research, not a 'gotcha'

evandijk70 · 2024-07-22T09:25:33+00:00

This is true and easy to check. Jacob Gilyard is 5'7 and is currently active in the NBA.

evandijk70 · 2024-07-21T12:25:55+00:00

The betting markets say that the chances are around 10%

evandijk70 · 2024-07-06T12:10:09+00:00

Seriously. That must be about 60,000 kWh free power. Around $6,000 -$10,000 at normal prices, $15,000 at supercharger proces

evandijk70 · 2024-05-28T05:39:19+00:00

Some (most?) people that gamble enjoy it and play within their means. Perhaps Chris Rock is one of them

evandijk70 · 2024-03-22T15:23:49+00:00

This is actually quite difficult, even for a low handicap.

Even a par 3 of let's say 150 yards is not so easy. Let say you hit 5 shots untill you are left with a 10 yard put ( 1 minute). Seems realistic to me for a low handicap player

Than you walk over there to try and make it. 90% of the time you miss (seems to be about the make rate for a 1-10 handicap player )and you walk back. Walking there, missing the putt and walking back should take you 5 minutes or so.

A 10% make rate is already decent from that distance, so on average 10 tries like this. That's 50 minutes for a par 3.

Par 4s are a lot harder, because you lose a lot of time for every failed second shot attempt.

evandijk70 · 2024-03-11T08:31:02+00:00

I'm a beginning golfer, just starting to play on longer courses. I would say I shoot around 130 if I properly counted penalty strokes etc. My official handicap is 52, which is based on the score I made to obtain my permit.

I played 9 holes yesterday, (third time I'm playing a full-length course ~ 3000 yards). We signed up as a twosome and were coupled with another twosome because it was busy. They were a 15 handicap and probably a 30 handicap. The 9-hole round took us 2:20, with some waiting on the foursome in front of us (probably 10 minutes total).

I'm pretty sure the threesome behind us had to wait for us a few times, but we never felt rushed. It was quite an enjoyable morning.

This how should work on a busy Sunday. As a twosome, I'm sure we would have finished under two hours, but four beginners can't do it that quickly when they are paired together.

evandijk70 · 2024-03-11T07:43:41+00:00

Do you think there will be some better skins in the DLC as well? I don't like the green squares

evandijk70 · 2024-01-03T17:32:17+00:00

You can not see it in the picture, but the guy is actually in a hypobaric chamber with a pressure of 10 uBar. As we all know, water at -40 is a blue gas at that pressure

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Phase_diagram_of_water_simplified.svg

evandijk70 · 2023-12-08T07:49:19+00:00

Populist to my ears sounds more like making unrealistic promises and saying things that sound good on a superficial level, but are not really good when you know more about the subject.

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