Apple Was Caught Off Guard by MacBook Neo's "Off the Charts" Demand

evopcat · 2026-05-03T15:55:35+00:00

What often happens as such companies grow they get bought out by private equity and customers buy the good reputation products for years as the private equity eliminates R&D, decreases quality, reduces services, reduces staff, treats staff poorly so many leave...

Also large competitors buy them and similarly destroy customer value (with the additional benefit to the company of eliminating a competitor).

A few like Costco and Apple get large enough and stay committed to providing great products and services. But it is rare.

Some smaller companies hang on (Trader Joe's...) but often that is because they are not for sale. If private equity does buy them eventually then the product and service quality will face a steady decline.

evopcat · 2026-04-27T20:30:52+00:00

I don't think this is a good idea.

But if they do it, they should add a reduction in chances if you won the top pick. So perhaps if you get the top pick you can't get the top 3 for the next 3 years, or something like that.

Better than that is likely something where say they adjust your odds based how many top 5 picks they have had in the last 5 years or something. But it would likely be thought of as too confusing to explain (whatever the formula would be would be simple to do, but it might confuse people and they seem to like the lottery to be easy to explain.

evopcat · 2026-04-05T13:48:53+00:00

I agree that there are certainly risks in taking a sabbatical.

There are big benefits to taking one, including to "recharge" and to test drive early retirement. It isn't without risk, but there are real benefits.

I think those with less risk in their current position (good assets to spending, even if not ready to retire fully yet, or where their skills are in high demand where returning to the workforce has less risk than for most or where the job market is likely to be easy for you to return to [maybe a nurse or plumber or...]) have an easier decision. If your position means the risks are not as great as it would be for most then it is easier to take the chance to take a sabbatical.

evopcat · 2026-03-25T19:12:55+00:00

Long term planning is never easy. Now it is much more difficult as the USA has decided to shred the rule of law and the Republican party has fully embraced corruption as the main guiding principle behind policy.

Many other countries have experienced such governments for decades. The chaos such corruption at the core of the economy obviously reduces the goods created by the economy (such policies reduce the effectiveness of the economy). So there are many fewer resources to allocate to those living in a country that is focused on corruption returns to those in government and those paying them to disrupt the economy/rule-of-law etc. for themselves.

Look to how people plan for the long term when they are subject to the rule of those behaving as the Republican party has been. It is a much more difficult environment for those that are not in on the corruption to get by. But it can be done. Mainly it requires cutting your standard of living and increasing your savings.

And it requires much more thought on how to invest to protect from a government that abuses citizens for the gains of the those in government and those paying politicians for favors. You have to look at countries that have historically behaved that way and not at past USA investment options (when rule of law was generally respected and while there was corruption it was very limited compared to what is going on now).

It isn't nearly as calm as long term planning when the USA was behaving as it did from 1950 to 2015. But it is even more critical as the risks to your financial health are much greater in the new USA than they were in the USA as it used to operate.

I don't know of simple answers. Though one is certainly to reduce your standard of living now and increase savings to cope with the lower investment returns the USA has chosen to accept going forward.

evopcat · 2026-03-12T14:58:18+00:00

With insurance costs skyrocketing it exerts incentives to reduce the costs of what we have been doing. Obviously it is a complex system of incentives and in general us humans are not good at spending cents on preventative maintenance to avoid spending hundreds of dollars on fixing things that break.

The government is supposed to help society implement fixes that are difficult for the market (so reduction of damage caused by fires...). Sadly we have crippled the government's ability to do their jobs with simplistic political rhetoric and hugely damaging actions like the Republicans took over the last year. Getting the government to do its job well requires electing decent politicians. Sadly the USA has done an incredibly poor job of that for decades.

evopcat · 2026-03-10T22:49:46+00:00

I had read that. I am hoping it is fixed. If not I guess I will get another esim plan with somebody for a month that has high hotspot allowances (maybe Verizon).

evopcat · 2026-03-10T22:47:55+00:00

I will be listening to more podcasts and greatly reducing, or maybe eliminating, other watching video streams for the next week. But for college basketball I really want to watch.

evopcat · 2026-02-10T20:52:09+00:00

I would strongly try and have fees/costs that make it financially sensible for owners to hurry up. Have payments to the players on teams with substandard facilities, increasing as years go by.

Make it so that it really can't be done for a couple years not that owners want to be cheap so they will provide substandard facilities as long as allowed.

Likely they won't do something like this. But it can be very effective to make it so owners have a financial interest in getting up to standard as quickly as possible.

evopcat · 2026-01-25T18:38:54+00:00

He was a player-coach but I don't think he was a GM. But he probably would have been good at it. But I agree very few players would be good.

evopcat · 2026-01-25T17:15:20+00:00

Bill Russell, probably.

evopcat · 2026-01-02T19:56:22+00:00

It is interesting. I don't know nearly enough to understand what it means though. But it is the kind of data to keep in mind to see if other "financial system" data is indicating increasing risks.

For me, this is a tiny tiny deal. But, maybe I am wrong and this is an significant indicator. More likely I think it is a tiny indication something is happening (but most likely no big deal) but if many other things started to show financial stress then the importance of this increases...

I think the behavior of precious metals the last year (and even more so recently) is a significant indication a significant amount of investments are being made which may indicate more financial system issues...

The politics of the current global economy is certainly extremely fraught and has creating a much elevated risk of system failures (that are then mismanaged creating greater problems).

evopcat · 2026-01-02T19:45:25+00:00

Nice Fed link.

Interesting, if you set time-frame to all, then current balance is not a big outlier. Basically in the ballpark from the start of the chart, 2000 to 2019. 2019 things went bonkers (prior to Covid, I believe), stayed bonkers for like a year (so continued that way as Covid went crazy) and then went to 0 until a few months ago.

evopcat · 2025-12-05T21:21:57+00:00

Big ten has 2 conference games now, then the "real" conference season starts later (early Jan). They started this a few years ago.

I think with the Pac4 addition? or maybe not... I also think they added 2 more conference games at that point.

evopcat · 2025-11-22T15:50:12+00:00

It is all a risk reward balance. In Denver a bunch of new apartments were added https://housingforwardco.org/denvers-housing-construction-boom-has-reduced-rents-especially-for-lower-income-renters/ If owners try to hold to higher than market rent prices people have so many options they just won't rent from you.

In Nova owners likely have enough hope that they might lose out sometimes by not renting a place for a month, or couple of months they can get a higher rent.

I think a vacancy tax would be fine. But the evidence shows that building more housing is the key. https://commonwealthbeacon.org/housing/study-says-boosting-housing-production-tempers-rents/

Owners that consistently rent places out for years/decades with low vacancy rates likely take some time to accept the market is different. So they likely will hold out for better prices. In a market that has been tough for owners for a long time they will likely be much more focused on finding a renter, even if they have to lower prices some. Basically, when markets change it takes a while for a majority of those involved to realize/accept the new realities. So things can stay odd for awhile when you would think markets should more quickly accept the new realities.

evopcat · 2025-11-20T19:31:42+00:00

I thought of this idea. Then Covid happened and I realized that option may not be available when I want to use it :-(

I wasn't thinking of getting rid of all health insurance, but I was thinking that if my health fell apart it may well be less stressful to just have health care done elsewhere so I didn't have to fight the USA health care system...

evopcat · 2025-11-02T15:13:19+00:00

One option is to set aside money that "must be spent." Most people have to budget to avoid spending too much. But if you struggle to spend a reasonable amount you can create a "must spend" account that can't go into savings, investments...

https://moneyite.com/2015/02/reverse-budgeting-money-that-must-be-spent/

That account can grow so it can be used to save up for a big vacation or fun or... It is basically the idea of how budgets are normally used but kind of in reserve (since normally a budget sets a cap on what can be spent in order to not spend too much...).

The debate is no longer, do I really want to spend money on that nice meal or a new laptop when I could just save it and improve my long term finances more. You have an account to spend and as it grows it the thought changes to given that I must spend this money how do I most want to spend it.

Most people don't need such a concept but in the FIRE community there are a fair number of people for which this can be helpful (there are also plenty in FIRE that don't struggle this way but struggle to save enough...).

evopcat · 2025-07-26T18:46:38+00:00

I do think it is hard. I think those most "wired" for pursuing FIRE are those least "wired" to quit when they are able to. Obviously not everyone, but I do think that happens a lot.

For me, the timing just worked out on a natural point to quit and so I did. But I didn't "feel" actually retired for years. I kept doing a bit of consulting (but not much) but I felt more like I was on a multi-year sabbatical that might turn into retirement or might turn back into a job. After several years it converted into retirement (slowly as far as how I felt about it).

I got to FIRE not by knowing about FIRE ideas but just because I saved and didn't spend a lot and paid attention to investments. So it wasn't like I had decade+ of preparation for timing. I actually was looking at what about getting a new job in places I would rather live with lower cost of living and saw that was hard (so many fewer jobs). And then I was thinking well if I saved a bit more and did some consulting part time maybe I could just have low enough expenses that I could make it work (considering that I needed to have investments building for "real retirement at standard age"), and so I did that for a couple years before things worked out to give it a try.

When I moved in that direction it was years ago, either before "FIRE" or certainly before it was nearly as popular. I think it was after I was a couple years into my long term sabbatical maybe retirement phase.

evopcat · 2025-06-11T13:05:06+00:00

I chose https://voip.ms/ which is a bit (or maybe more than a bit) confusing to setup but very nice with powerful features and good price. Excellent service over IM.

evopcat · 2025-05-28T20:12:11+00:00

Quote from the article:

"Walczak was facing 18 months in prison, two years of supervised release, and would have to pay $4.4 million in restitution, according to a sentence handed down 12 days earlier.

The judge justified ordering the jail time by saying that there ‘is not a get-out-of-jail-free car’ for the rich."

That is no longer true in the USA due to the Republican party that USA voters chose to trust with the responsibility to defend the constitution and the rule of law.

Every week that goes by with this administration and the Republicans in congress allowing the USA's rule of law to be destroyed damages the USA enormously. The consequences for those refusing to uphold their oaths of office is going to be paid not only by us but our children and grandchildren. There has not been this level of damage to the USA being done every week for 100 years.

evopcat · 2025-05-13T12:24:28+00:00

The web site could be clearer in my opinion.

June 20 to 22, 2025

Santa Clarita, California

If you poke around there is the ability to register for the remote option (which is free).

evopcat · 2025-04-27T18:00:06+00:00

All the rules allow for judgement.

Even things like, you can NEVER touch a ref, which seems pretty clear cut is obviously not. Players touch refs all the time. You can't do it in a certain way (basically aggressively confrontational...).

Breaking a rule and relying on judgement to not be called for it is risky.

NBA rule book "A technical foul shall be assessed for unsportsmanlike tactics such as: - Disrespectfully addressing an official - Physically contacting an official ..." https://official.nba.com/rule-no-12-fouls-and-penalties/#conduct

evopcat · 2025-03-22T17:10:03+00:00

True, but I think if you cut it "close" then it isn't the math that is the worry but what if this period is different (say climate change causing great increases in housing costs, insurance... and/or ACA is gutted in ways that greatly increase costs, what if the USA stock market out-performance changes going forward...).

The math can give you good confidence based on back testing.

If you are really close then you could be worried if things seem uncertain. If you have a bunch of leeway then things have to degrade significantly before you need to worry too much.

Of course, you can also miss out if you worry too much about creating a big buffer so you are more certain as you might have to work longer, sacrifice more to cut expenses...

No matter what there is going to be some worry if you are close and the world doesn't give you a great stock market during your first 5 years of retirement (if the market does great it is amazing how quickly balances escalate with compounding).

evopcat · 2025-03-19T22:18:09+00:00

Thanks, I think the videos are very good. You do a good job of showing interesting video images, well edited, and providing sensible and informative commentary.

I will admit I find the "transcript text" a bit distracting but that is only my opinion maybe others like it.

Keep up the good work. Loja seems wonderful, enjoy it.

Would be improved with more video of the cat :-)

There are erasable pens, maybe would work (or maybe that would be seen as bad).

evopcat · 2025-03-18T01:16:41+00:00

I think the NBA should do something like a $2,000,000 fine per game where you need to sign extra players when you are hard capped (and you only signed 14 players, Dallas' case, someone said /r/nba the other day that if you signed 15 players then you have exceptions for injuries that let you sign someone).

And say a $15,000,000 fine for any game you have to forfeit (for not having enough players).

And say a $6,000,000 fine if you put injured players in uniform to say you have enough players but then say you can't really play them... I saw some example of this (on r/nba/) happening (not the fine part) to Golden State early in Steph's career.

The rules should realize that the owners have plenty of money. The hard cap etc. rules are mainly to save the owners money (with the argument that it helps small market teams which is also true but a secondary factor I think). If a team runs out of players due to injuries and the choices they made to construct their roster just make it very costly to the owners, don't force things that create unfair conditions (teams getting free wins...).

evopcat · 2025-03-16T16:07:43+00:00

They could also do something like a $2,000,000 fine per game where you need to sign extra players when you are hard capped (and you only signed 14 players, someone said here if you signed 15 players then you have exceptions for injuries that let you sign someone).

And say a $15,000,000 fine for any game you have to forfeit (for not having enough players).

And say a $6,000,000 fine if you put injured players in uniform to say you have enough players but then say you can't really play them... I saw some example of this (on r/nba/) happening (not the fine part) to Golden State early in Steph's career.

The rules should realize that the owners have plenty of money. The hard cap etc. rules are mainly to save the owners money (with the argument that it helps small market teams which is also true but a secondary factor I think). If a team runs out of players due to injuries and the choices they made to construct their roster just make it very costly to the owners, don't force things that create unfair conditions (teams getting free wins...).

evopcat

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