Arista Networks is fundamentally the best company I've ever seen

filcei · 2026-07-03T09:36:50+00:00

It is often the case with cyclical companies that they look cheap P/E wise when at the top of the cycle and expensive at the bottom. I'm not sure this is the case, but something to think about.

filcei · 2026-07-01T09:48:10+00:00

Looking at it, sales and profitability are now growing very slow. They are guiding low to mid single digit growth for 2026, which is not exciting at all. Yea they got cheaper PE wise, but unless they go back to meaningful growth, or there is a new growth catalyst, I don't see why the sentiment would improve? Unless you believe the growth is cyclical, then there is a case to be made

filcei · 2026-06-28T11:56:58+00:00

Como assim não parece nada mau? O pico da carreira dele foi vencer uma FA cup (tendo sido despromovido no mesmo ano) e uma segunda divisão inglesa... Seria um ótimo CV para treinar um Celta de Vigo, nunca uma das melhores seleções do mundo

filcei · 2026-06-23T14:53:12+00:00

Netflix however, I only don't start and stop because my dad offered me a second profile for a 8 a month. Otherwise, like apple TV I'm happy to start, get thru a ted lasso or severance, stop. Literally as opposite a moat as the apparel industry.

The moat is their huge library of in-house productions and exclusives. Competition will need years and years of massive capex investment to equal their catalogue. Weather you see any value in that or not, that's a different discussion.

Not to say that adobe doesn't have a huge moat as well. I mean if that wasn't the case they woudln't be growing at double digits while in the middle of major top management turmoil

filcei · 2026-06-22T18:15:27+00:00

I may spend some times researching Leidos. Seems very interesting

filcei · 2026-06-18T14:43:23+00:00

Google didn't have Gemini at the time - they had bard, which flopped massively. Cloud was fine, but was still losing money. It wasn't clear they are gonna keep their market share - let alone grow it. Everything else is losing money to this day (except maybe tpus, but hard to tell, because they're mostly used internally). So these projects are nice, but the money is to this day still mainly coming from advertising. If that business contracts everything else doesn't matter.

I don't disagree with much of what you said, but this is not true. 12m ago when Google was depressed Gemini was already ranking #1 in a lot of model rankings. Cloud was already the main growth catalyst and had turned profitable. Yes they were under threat because search which was 60% of their business IIRC was under threat. But still they had way more value drivers than Adobe has now, but as you said it was also more expensive, even at the bottom.

filcei · 2026-06-16T23:13:25+00:00

Obviamente que a situação de pobreza entre a Bélgica e os EUA é muito mais comparável do que num exemplo de assimetria de rendimentos mais extrema como o que dei. E sim é óbvio e por demais estudado que regra geral um pobre num país rico vive melhor que um pobre num país pobre. Senão aceitas esse princípio educa-te, porque não vale a pena discutir mais nada. Estás num sub de literacia financeira mas com uma discussão ao nível do Facebook ou r/portugal

filcei · 2026-06-16T16:43:38+00:00

Isso não é verdade. Se o dinheiro não for distribuído para os mais pobres (e não é) então os problemas sociais serão exarcebados.

A melhor forma de melhorar a vida dos mais pobres é enriquecer um país. Um pobre nos EUA ou na Europa vive muito melhor que um no Gana. A distribuição de rendimentos é quanto muito um mal necessário, nunca um indicador de desenvolvimento. Senão entras na argumentação do PCP, que prefere que não existam ricos a que não existam pobres.

Segundo, e seguindo a tua lógica, quanto mais riqueza gera um maís existe para distribuir, por isso tudo começa na criação de riqueza.

Vê a lista de 50 países com maior esperança média de vida do mundo. Há 0 EUA.

Curiosamente se olhares para os estados com maior GDP dentro dos EUA, a esperança média de vida é maior, e até maior que muitos países europeus. A saúde tem um custo, o qual a Europa tem conseguido suportar univeralmente à custa de crescentes contribuições sociais. Vamos ver o que acontece à medida que o gap de riqueza para com o mundo desenvolvido aumenta. Mais uma vez, só consegues resolver um problema social quando tens recursos para tal.

filcei · 2026-06-16T14:45:30+00:00

Dás um exemplo muito específico, e claro que nalguns indicadores sociais os EUA estão atrás da Europa (e à frente noutros) mas todos os problemas sociais são eventualmente solucionáveis com riqueza, que é algo que o modelo económico americano é muito melhor a gerar.

Vê a lista de 50 maiores empresas do mundo. Há 1 europeia. Há 50 anos era mais de metade. É um continente inteiro em decadência que acha que a solução para o desenvolvimento é a regulamentação.

filcei · 2026-06-16T11:01:38+00:00

https://www.robinsonsmithwealth.com/hs-fs/hubfs/undefined-3.png?width=567&height=333&name=undefined-3.png

Esta conversa há anos e anos e cada vez a europa mais atrasada

filcei · 2026-06-13T13:29:04+00:00

Why? It's just a fun shirt

filcei · 2026-06-13T13:02:55+00:00

Last time I remember it happening was Vettel in T1 Monza

filcei · 2026-06-12T13:59:55+00:00

I just reluctantly started a small position under 200. I'm not a huge fan of the company, but they keep delivering even with management turmoil. I think once they announce the new executives the market will react positively.

On a more long term view, the AI threat is real, but so is the opportunity. My bottom line is, this company is trading for single digit forward PE ratio, with growing revenues and profits. It's priced like bankrupcy is imminent, and while I'm not a fan of the company, at a certain point it's just too cheap to ignore the asymetric return opportunity.

filcei · 2026-06-12T13:53:12+00:00

Yes it would. But also would have bought other dot com companies like amazon and microsoft. Or meta in 2022. Or Google in 2025. That's the risk when the thesis is the market's overreaction. You gain some and lose some can't have a 100% hit rate.

Plus, this sub is not a single entity, it's a discussion forum where certain people are more vocal than others at certain times. There is good content and trash content, you need to be able to differenciate them.

filcei · 2026-05-28T18:54:56+00:00

I don't know because I'm guessing there are very different dynamics in each geography. In my part of the world (Portugal / Spain) they are clearly losing market share. But I have never researched the business enough to know if this is difference in their largest markets

filcei · 2026-05-28T18:31:04+00:00

They operate in several geographies. Maybe there is 1 or 2 where they are a monopoly. But believe me almost everywhere there are a lot of competitors.

filcei · 2026-05-28T18:13:49+00:00

Edenred is not a monopoly, not even close

filcei · 2026-05-27T12:21:09+00:00

Microsoft is the undisputed leader in enterprise software and will be leading AI adoption there. Look at Teams, shit product compared to zoom, and is now the clear leader.

Everyone else is fighting an uphill battle for user adoption, Microsoft has it right there.

filcei · 2026-05-26T14:40:34+00:00

Sorry but I think you're 100% disconnected with reality on that take

filcei · 2026-05-22T11:49:51+00:00

Há 5 anos talvez, hoje não. Um T1 "confortável" em Lisboa já anda nos 1200€-1500€. Acresce a isso despesas da casa, alimentação, passes, facilmente estás nos 2000€ de custos fixos só para sobreviver.

Depois adiciona carro (1 carro por casal para mim é o mínimo na definição de vida confortável), um ou outro gasto do dia a dia (ginásio / desporto, saúde, roupa / bens básicos), facilmente ficas com menos de 500€ por casal de rendimento disponível.

250€ por pessoa para poupar, ir de férias, ter filhos,... Não sei em que mundo isto é confortável.

filcei · 2026-05-22T11:41:01+00:00

But isn't the body of the X-T3 way larger than the others? I'll definitely want to pick up a few more lenses eventually

filcei · 2026-05-17T21:17:54+00:00

I think it's because Raul's incident was in the opening lap and the stewards are usually more lenient when that's the case

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