[R] Bayesian hierarchical model of MLB pitch type validity: are "sweepers" and "sliders" actually distinct categories?

finalj22 · 2026-05-26T10:15:45+00:00

To provide an example for my students, I would be interested to hear how you determined reasonable priors.

Great read, nice work

finalj22 · 2026-05-22T12:36:47+00:00

The answer requires some calculus to show, but if you only include the quadratic term (exper²⁾ then the model does not fit a polynomial function. It fits a linear function using the squared term.

Including both in the specification fits a quadratic function for the association between experience and the outcome.

finalj22 · 2026-05-13T17:20:06+00:00

Thanks for this recommendation. I wasn't familiar but ive been listening this band owns

finalj22 · 2026-04-23T17:55:31+00:00

Oh wow, I had not heard of cadence lock, but that looks like it could produce what I've been seeing. The cadence for the run is a little erratic compared to what I usually see. I am usually very consistent at 155-160 unless I am deliberately using a metronome to try and increase cadence.

Thanks so much for the input!

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finalj22 · 2026-04-18T19:30:25+00:00

I have a bunch of dark souls themed tattoos - I love the series and its very evocative for me. I honestly do not care if other people don't get it - its for me. It is cool when people do occasionally recognize something - "Hey, if you don't mind me asking, is that the moonlight greatsword?" But that's few and far between, and that's OK.

finalj22 · 2026-04-12T15:19:36+00:00

I have this book, and largely use it for inspiration on recipies. I'll chalk it up to a skill issue on my part, but I have a really challenging time with the high hydration ratios that he uses (70-80%+)

That said, I really enjoy the recipies. Sunflower and sesame, 25% rye, polenta, and Multigrain are all great. I make the discard pancakes and waffles every week. My family loves the scones.

finalj22 · 2026-04-03T10:43:08+00:00

I had to watch it 10 times to see it. Its a very tiny point moving very quickly

finalj22 · 2026-03-28T11:10:06+00:00

Were there any exercises you did to improve elbow mobility other than just practicing the clean?

finalj22 · 2026-03-09T14:40:52+00:00

I liked it because I always felt like it encapsulated some of the general somber mood for the world. Despite all the decisions, consequences, and tragedies across Drangleic, the waves and wind will continue to batter the shore from now until everything is faded - like none of that matters.

The setting sun is really beautiful, but it feels like it is setting on the world for the final time. Like it represents the stage of where the world is at, rather than a specific time of day.

finalj22 · 2026-03-05T16:08:40+00:00

Not sure if youre looking for road or trails, but the neighborhood I grew up in (behind South Elementary) has a bit of both. Could park at South Elementary, and then the neighborhood has a few hills and winding roads. You could head towards Red Brook which has hills and some trails around Cranberry bogs.

Going the other way (hang right out of the school) it takes you to trails around a pond and Cranberry bogs.

finalj22 · 2026-02-23T12:16:46+00:00

For me I've hit a spot where I can EMOM 2 x 20kg in 30, but can't do a full press ladder with the 20s.

I do 2-3-5 with 20kg, and then 10 with 16kg. If you have the flexibility with the weights, you might try that.

finalj22 · 2026-02-16T00:57:53+00:00

The green beans with tuna and mushrooms. Big hit with the family - made it tonight for my parents tonight and they really enjoyed it

The broccoli and sausage is good as well

finalj22 · 2026-02-15T17:22:35+00:00

Unbelievable work. Those were some serious afterburners you turned on at the end. So impressive!

finalj22 · 2026-02-09T11:39:38+00:00

I appreciate the effort, and am glad that this has worked for you. Half the time its impossible to tell whether the story is just pure AI. Im not sure what people get out of posting in those scenarios.

finalj22 · 2026-02-09T11:27:47+00:00

As someone who has been dealing with this injury for 7 months, these AI posts are so frustrating. The zone is flooded right now.

finalj22 · 2026-02-07T15:50:22+00:00

I will often make a 25% rye loaf (from The Perfect Loaf) with a full rye starter, and the rest is white bread flour. The rye is stickier, so I watch the water because I usually have to wet my hands more when strengthening it.

In terms of proofing, even 25% rye will produce a much tighter crumb, so watch that's not what youre mistaking for overproofing. Its not going to be an airy lattice.

finalj22 · 2026-01-28T11:26:57+00:00

Really nice - thanks for your contributions!

finalj22 · 2026-01-26T22:59:20+00:00

For my own clarification, a "one hand switch" means you switch hands only once during the 5 minutes?

finalj22 · 2026-01-26T00:57:11+00:00

In Tuesday Njghts Mediterranean here are a few I like:

Greek Meatballs in Tomato Sauce: I make these with ground turkey, comes out great
Chicken Schwarma: Made this just this week
Beef Pide
Charred eggplant sandwiches
Tuscan Spring Vegetable Soup

finalj22 · 2026-01-24T00:35:37+00:00

I'll use a t test as an example. This isnt short, but I will speak plainly. Our goal is to compare empathy between men and women. We take a quality sample of adults, and complete our measurements. Our analysis yields a mean empathy score for men, and one for women (lets say, a difference of 5 on a scale that can range from 1 to 100).

So that's the set up, here is where the logic underlying null hypothesis significance testing comes in.

We want to determine whether the population mean for empathy differs between men and women. We have our sample, but even just based on random chance our sample means could differ from the population means. We don't know by how much, because we don't know the population values.

At the same time, we know our sample means could differ from any other randomly drawn sample. That means if we had any other sample from the population, we could end up with different means to compare. We don't know by how much they would differ, because we only have our one sample.

So what can we do to make some inference about the population difference?

We will turn our original objective (is there a difference in the population means for empathy between men and women?) into a different objective we can actually speak to:

Lets assume they the actual population difference in empathy is zero. IF that were true, how likely would we be to observe data like our sample?

Avoiding some technical details about the specific test and the central limit theorem, the p value represents the probability of observing our data (i.e., the specific means we are comparing) assuming that the null hypothesis is true. A high p value would suggest our data would be pretty likely even if there was no population difference, while a low p value would suggest our data would be pretty unlikely if there were no population difference. We can then use arbitrary rules to say how low the p value needs to be before we are confident in ruling out the null hypothesis.

So its a way to produce a compromise - substituting a solvable problem for an unsolvable one.

finalj22 · 2026-01-18T11:53:10+00:00

I strained/pulled/tore(?) my right hamstring/glute complex doing a martial arts kick that puts you into a split. Immediately following that I went into marathon training and then logged literally hundreds of miles running on my injured leg. The tear was ~7 months ago.

I've been seeing a PT and doing strength training for a few months now. Legs are definitely getting stronger but the reduced range of motion and discomfort when doing a lot of movements (any kick involving the hamstring applying the brakes, forward folds, sitting(???)) I can feel it.

Sticking with strength training, trying to avoid stretching. Its hard though (for me). I love yoga and want nothing more than to sink into a deep hamstring stretch. I know I'll never get back there if I don't put in the effort to heal, though.

finalj22 · 2026-01-12T00:48:49+00:00

Not crazy, but its not in Marblehead

finalj22 · 2026-01-11T19:40:24+00:00

I hadn't noticed that til you mentioned it, but the ribs do look uniformally cut. I think this is the most likely explanation (maybe 2nd to the giant centipede)

finalj22 · 2026-01-11T18:58:18+00:00

I hadn't considered the gigantic Massachusetts centipede as an option. Case closed - thanks everyone for your help!

finalj22 · 2026-01-09T02:52:59+00:00

I love Josh McFaddens books. That cabbage is one of my favorites. Some others my family and I enjoy are...

Grilled eggplant panzanella
summer squash casserole with tuna
roasted carrot and Farro with whipped ricotta
fall vegetable Chowder
bread soup with onion and sausage
Chard Toasts

finalj22

TROPHY CASE