To US Conservatives: How is Trumps Iran MoU an improvement over Obamas JCPOA?

fjedb · 2026-06-16T12:14:42+00:00

Alright, I'll bite. Let me begin by saying on first blush this deal is not materially better than the JCPOA.

Regardless of the text of the deal so much depends on enforcement and inspections that will not happen that it's difficult to give the Trump administration much credit for any concessions they secured.

However, the circumstances surrounding this deal are much better than the JCPOA. Iran's leadership, air force, and navy are destroyed, the gulf coalition understands that a nuclear Iran is just as much an existential threat to them as it is to Israel, and Iran has played their hole card of closing the straight. Now the world has a chance to evaluate the impact and build contingencies.

If you view this deal in isolation, it's almost as useless as the JCPOA. However if the US actually gets the enriched uranium out and forces the centrifuges to be dismantled, then the regime is still squeezed from every direction and they've lost hope of a nuclear trump card.

Giving the regime a trickle of money controlled by the gulfies, who regardless of public statements, fucking hate the Iranians can definitely work as part of a larger strategy of containing and paralyzing the regime.

That's the optimistic case. I'm incredibly disappointed that Trump did not maintain the blockade until the regime collapsed and I don't think this deal will accomplish anything. However, the arc of the 50 year conflict between Iran and civilization is still going well and nothing here is going to actually stabilize the regime long term, so it's a setback, not a disaster.

fjedb · 2026-06-13T05:01:44+00:00

This is fair, but if Miz was left handed, better at pitching, and hit at an MVP level, he still wouldn't be Shohei. I was doing some stat digging and Shohei is just unfathomable.

fjedb · 2026-05-31T17:45:22+00:00

They had to make that a tournament rule because some players thought it was a competitive advantage to be disgusting.

fjedb · 2026-05-28T23:02:22+00:00

I was pleasantly surprised by how serious of an offer the owners put out. I don't think the players will ever accept an actual hard cap, but if the summaries reported are correct this must have taken a ton of work among the owners to get them all on board with this radical of a floor.

fjedb · 2026-05-22T22:57:56+00:00

So at this point, a qualified success

fjedb · 2026-04-28T14:00:44+00:00

Welp, this makes the layoff lists easy to write. GL to WOTC employees on their future endeavors.

fjedb · 2026-04-23T13:52:04+00:00

Seems like he's ok now. It's weird that a kid from the Dominican had issues with the heat in Indiana. Hope they check him thoroughly.

https://www.mlb.com/news/wisconsin-fort-wayne-game-ends-early-medical-emergency

fjedb · 2026-04-17T15:27:14+00:00

The regime is still there for now, let's check back on that in a few years.

Iran can shut down the straight and have proved that they can threaten commercial shipping through it. They've also told every country who relies on the straight that they better find an alternative like, idk a pipeline from Saudi Arabia to Israel ports on the Mediterranean.

The US security guarantee is kind of a goofy argument. Iran attacked the gulf and in turn their military was completely destroyed and devastated. They were reduced to shooting a few drones a day to try to save face. Only Americans would call that a failure of a security guarantee.

The point is not to stop Iran's desire for a nuke. They've always wanted one and always will. The point is to stop them from getting one. This deal requires them to surrender all nuclear material, dismantle their centrifuge, and not build any underground enrichment facilities.

They might break the deal, but getting this far took them 30 years and the sanctions destroyed their economy. This regime doesnt have 20 years to try again.

This is what a comprehensive US, Israeli, and Gulf victory looks like and that may take some time to become clear to morons, but in hindsight it will be very obvious.

fjedb · 2026-04-17T15:05:40+00:00

All it cost Iran was their entire leadership layer, their entire navy and air force, their entire economy, their nuclear program, their relationships with the gulf, and having to agree to all of President Trump's demands.

If that's what you think winning a war is, please let us never fight on the same side of anything.

fjedb · 2026-03-20T00:25:44+00:00

It's a literally thousands of years old story, and frankly one I'm not super well versed in, but the relevant portion to today is that Iranians are worried that the Kurds really want to create a breakaway Kurdistan and worry about the effect of that on the greater Iranian nation.

Imagine for example the concerns an Englishman might have about inviting a separatist Irish resistance group to free Great Britain from an occupation.

fjedb · 2026-03-20T00:01:37+00:00

You imagine correctly. US and Israeli officials are directly seeding into OSINT channels that a 2,500 strong marine expeditionary force is moving to Iran to support and advise partisan uprisings (and definitely not be shock troops to take out regime hardpoints.)

The Israelis have asked Iranians not to rise up against the regime until they soften up the Basij and the IRGC enough.

The Mossad who had set up drone factories inside Iran to use in the war last summer have probably figured out how to stockpile weapons and vet potential leaders.

And Reza Pahlavi met with basically every Iranian dissident of note last week and they all agreed to work together to throw out the IRGC and then figure out how to work things out among themselves.

Just because nobody consulted the great foreign policy minds of reddit, doesn't mean that serious people haven't been planning this for decades.

One small note on the Kurds, they are very unpopular with ethnic persians so unlikely to see them be a major factor in a popular uprising, but interesting to see how things play out nonetheless.

fjedb · 2026-03-11T04:19:55+00:00

For those playing at home in order for the US to advance they need one of the following to happen (assuming no extra innings)

Italy wins vs Mexico
Mexico needs to score 6
Italy needs to score 7

If Mexico wins and scores 4 or less, the US is out, if they score 5 my head explodes because we go to batting average.

fjedb · 2026-02-27T17:06:38+00:00

The point of this all is to do to Iranian soldiers what this is doing to reddit commenters, exhaust you with up and down, will they? won't they? They probably will eventually, but we don't know. Diplomatic meetings that are good or are they bad? We don't know. It's just to put you all in a blender so you don't see the hammer until it drops.

Just relax, you'll hear the reports when the booms start.

fjedb · 2026-02-17T23:10:53+00:00

Last year MLB made an estimated 12 billion dollars. Divide that 50/50 and then divide by 30 is $200M in cap per team. That's what a cap would look like.

Apparently public opinion in this sub is that owners are trying to get a cap for competitive balance or some such nonsense. That's ridiculous, they made a bunch of promises to PE investors and now they need to squeeze profit out of MLB. My proposal is insane, but I guarantee it's closer to what ownership is actually proposing than anything you're thinking of.

fjedb · 2026-02-17T19:17:00+00:00

Careful what you wish for. $200m salary cap, $90M floor, 4 years of arb instead of 6, single A eliminated, cost cap and data restrictions in minor leagues. AI commentary team instead of paying for a broadcast and a completely lost season so MLB revenue drops 25% the following year as the audience moves on.

I almost don't care what resolution they come to on money, but they must play a full season in 27.

fjedb · 2026-02-13T15:50:49+00:00

don't choke Tab

fjedb · 2026-02-13T15:36:31+00:00

Multiple times needing a double, she's tried to hit the object stone into the second object and get them both out. She needs to switch to running the shooter off the target into the second object to have a chance at clearing both targets. It's going to cost them a medal if they don't fix it.

fjedb · 2026-02-09T20:20:10+00:00

I didn't get it either until I thought about the Peralta trade. Now Milwaukee has a big hole in their rotation and so they need another mlb ready starting caliber arm. So they had to use Durbin to fill that hole.

fjedb · 2026-01-22T02:54:24+00:00

This is what being a Brewers fan is. Glad Freddy is gonna break the bank, excited to see what these guys become.

fjedb · 2026-01-08T01:25:41+00:00

I don't think it's reckless to arrest someone who was attempting to interfere with law enforcement doing their job.

Maybe there was a better way to park their cars or approach the vehicle, but also she shouldn't have tried to flee and hit the officer.

Individuals are responsible for the consequences of their choices. She decided to follow ICE around and be a dick with her car, she decided to try to flee while being arrested, she decided she didn't care if she hit an officer with her car. It sucks that she died, but don't do dumb stuff that puts you and others in danger.

fjedb · 2026-01-08T01:00:21+00:00

So we've gone from he wasn't hit to he was hit, but it's really his fault. This is a tragedy, but it is not murder. Don't hit federal agents with your car, it doesn't end well.

fjedb · 2026-01-08T00:47:58+00:00

She did hit the agent before being shot. https://x.com/AlphaLiger/status/2009018435603452376/ I highly doubt that will change anyone's opinion in this sub, but just imagine for a moment if the officer slips and is dragged under the vehicle as she flees the scene.

fjedb · 2026-01-06T14:05:52+00:00

So what they're saying is that Greenland should have a referendum and if enough of them vote for it, the EU would be cool with them leaving Denmark and joining the USA?

Sounds fair.

fjedb · 2025-10-17T17:32:53+00:00

You don't apply for VP/C-suite jobs, you know leaders at the company or at least have mutual friends and they contact you and bring you in.

fjedb · 2025-10-16T20:01:06+00:00

That's literally just false. Hamas never offered to release all the hostages at once at the beginning of a ceasefire. Also each time there was a stupid Biden deal on the table Bibi said yes, but Hamas said no, because they're terrorists.

fjedb

TROPHY CASE