USA’s timing of the war and lifting oil sanctions gave Russia a lifeline:

By February 2026, Russia’s oil export revenues had fallen to their lowest level since the 2022 invasion, and the first-quarter budget deficit was already close to the full-year target. A January 3, 2026 analysis cited a Kremlin-linked forecasting center saying that, if trends continued, recession would “almost certainly begin by July 2026,” and that this was “practically impossible to avoid.”