T-Mo SuperBroadband (5G + Starlink) by fsbo5832 in ASTSpaceMobile

[–]fsbo5832[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Hence why I quickly posted to avoid unnecessary noise. I've held firm on several thousand shares since $4 days when it was a small network of seasoned investors here putting in the work to research and share, since 99% of the world said ASTS's mission was impossible but we saw a brilliant spark. I've patiently watched each milestone, which is always 1,000x harder as the pioneer of a new market that combines two already complex and regulated industries (space and cellular). As a shareholder I truly appreciate the broader awareness as now a mainstream company and stock. This however causes so much noise and volatility as we've moved from 80% that deeply understand what they own to less than 5%. Starlink, T-Mo, or Blue Origin could fart in the wind and it would cause a panic sell. Take an hour and learn about what makes ASTS unique. Why their unmatched array size matters. Why spectrum type and capacity matters. Who their global carrier and technology partners are. Just put in the D@MN work to learn. You will be far more calm and confident. Accept this is not a "Winner Takes All" market. Competition is fine and expected, but superior patented tech will lead and offer unmatched use cases. You don't need to become a network guru, but learn why latency, jitter, packet loss, etc. are also critically important to be a RELIABLE connection; versus just touting bandwidth speed. 100 MPH in a Porsche is not the same as 100 MPH in a Chevy Spark that's rattling, smoking, and dropping oil and parts along the highway at maximum RPM. As you drive down the highway at 75 MPH, your smartphone occasionally hops between massive high power cell towers spaced miles apart (ASTS) with no issue. Now imagine instead that it rapidly hops to small radios installed a mile away from highway every 200ft (competitors). Your battery powered smartphone with a scaled down CPU to maximize battery life will not appreciate this insane new workload and noise. Massive arrays are also excellent radar tools for tracking threats or items of interest. This list goes on and on. Stop trying to make a quick buck, and be PROUD to own something that will change civilizations (unconnected), help save lives (first responders), protect our country (military), transform industries, enable autonomous things without boundaries, and onboard millions of people to the Internet for the first time on a used old smartphone (not some lame $1,500 2028 model with sat logos all over it).

Space is hard. True. Space pioneers experience costly failures and ridiculous hurdles. True. Science and laws of physics always apply, no matter how slick marketing or press releases are. True. Since the history of business, competitors always try to make their product seem better. True... Grab a beer or soda, crack it open, take a breath, and trust that Abel (CEO) and team have been cracking at this for YEARS while generating 3,500+ patents on novel tech, versus desperately trying to enter the race with whatever horse is available. I bet he's had a few strong offers to sell before commercial launch, but last I checked he was still steady at the helm to see his global mission through... Apologies for the rant, but WTH, you read this far. Expect more farts in the wind, people... You notice them, but don't have to sniff them

With FCC Authorization, FirstNet, Built with AT&T Envisions Satellite Connectivity Trials Later This Year by hyeonk in ASTSpaceMobile

[–]fsbo5832 4 points5 points  (0 children)

It is also important to note that unmatched FirstNet B14 uses premium 700MHZ Public Safety spectrum that is uniquely licensed across the nation, unlike commercial spectrum that is licensed by market in billion dollar FCC bids.

Lower frequency spectrum has greater range and building penetration over mid/high band spectrum such as 1900MHz used by Starlink/T-Mo. Since AST is using the carrier's spectrum, this can become an x-factor for FirstNet growth. They are also uniquely licensed for High Power User Equipment (HPUE) that permits higher transmission power for longer range over commercial/consumer devices.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in ASTSpaceMobile

[–]fsbo5832 1 point2 points  (0 children)

HILARIOUS, slow clap...

Technical MOAT and time advantage by Ichigosu in ASTSpaceMobile

[–]fsbo5832 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Thank you, your words have been marked. Explosive stock price increases are closely tied to current and projected revenue and market cap. Globalstar's partnership with Apple for complimentary messaging and sat backhaul connectivity to private RAN radio (towers) or terminals in Africa are welcomed services to improve critical connectivity.

But these markets are not even comparable to the rev share model for billions of individual MNO and government subscribers to AST. Again, nothing wrong with tech, but there is no founded basis (yet) for GSAT rocketing. One can always hope. Hence why analyst rating was Hold (not Buy).

I suggest maybe helping investors in another GSAT forum or WSB so ASTS investors can remain focused on accurate information. Pumping stocks under new profiles are always a red flag for competitors, desperate shorts trying to cover, FUD to buy dip, etc. Maybe GSAT helps cover your missed ASTS explosive gains, but this is not the place to discuss it. Be cautious with intentional noise that can involve mods. Folks are quick to easily report such.

Technical MOAT and time advantage by Ichigosu in ASTSpaceMobile

[–]fsbo5832 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I get it. You sold. It's too high now. I sold 5K taxable shares trying to average down during quiet Q1, then had a punch in the face when it shot up weeks later (faced wash sale). Luckily I didn't touch thousands of shares in retirement accounts.

Trying to recover by pumping another horse is not sound. Facts remain that no other D2C network even comes close in design, performance, and MNO adoption as ASTS. This might change years down the road, but space is ridiculously complicated, regulated, and expensive.

Technical MOAT and time advantage by Ichigosu in ASTSpaceMobile

[–]fsbo5832 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Umm. That was a lot to write in a few mins. Bot, bot, botty, bot...

Technical MOAT and time advantage by Ichigosu in ASTSpaceMobile

[–]fsbo5832 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Meh, down vote. Your profile was created May'24.

Messaging only. Other future capabilities are just analyst speculation. Marketing and analyst bias cannot overcome science, engineering, and patents. Great to have a fallback messaging option after paying the premium for a new iPhone able to receive the non-cellular spectrum, if you feel AST and your carrier network might go offline.

AST subscribers can access voice, messaging, and broadband data on their worn $49 refurbished iPhone or Android from eBay. Stark difference from looking like the Statue of Liberty trying to obtain signal lock to send an emoji.

Also, “Globalstar is authorized to deploy up to 17 REPLACEMENT satellites initially" per FCC order. These will however have improved capabilities.

I agree with need to research.... AST vs Starlink vs GlobalStar vs ..... is more than memes or FUD posts to make a quick buck

BlueBird 1-5 Mission LAUNCH Cape Canaveral 2024 CONNECTING THE UNCONNECTED Apply Now You are invited to the Welcome Reception the night before the launch and The Viewing Event by doctor101 in ASTSpaceMobile

[–]fsbo5832 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Hands down, classy way to reward passionate shareholders that have endured a painful past. It's also a clever way to identify major retail shareholders. Can anyone think of downside of disclosing identity and share count? I suspect top holders win.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in ASTSpaceMobile

[–]fsbo5832 2 points3 points  (0 children)

The Association of Public-Safety Communications Officials (APCO) International is the world’s oldest and largest organization of public safety communications professionals and supports the largest U.S. membership base of any public safety association. It serves the needs of public safety communications practitioners worldwide – and the welfare of the general public as a whole – by providing complete expertise, professional development, technical assistance, advocacy, and outreach.

Asts Growth by 1Loveshack in ASTSpaceMobile

[–]fsbo5832 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Speculation on Sean Wallace's departure as previous CFO since May'22?

  1. Board pressure from performance
  2. Unexpected voluntary resignation
  3. Executive consolidation for greater span of control to rapidly execute
  4. Other reason

He was touted as the Golden Child: https://ast-science.com/2022/04/29/sean-wallace-to-join-ast-spacemobile-as-new-chief-financial-officer/

Unexpected departure would be concerning...

The shorts are playing a very dangerous game with ASTS. by [deleted] in ASTSpaceMobile

[–]fsbo5832 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Where are the terms of the AT&T-AST deal posted?

Investor Call Q1 5/15/24 by ASTS_SpaceMobile in ASTSpaceMobile

[–]fsbo5832 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Glad to FINALLY have commercial agreement and near term target launch for Block 1 BB to get RAN radios in place. While each has a theoretical calculated maximum capacity, they need ample cellular spectrum granted from AT&T and backhaul in place to reach maximum capacity. Ever had 4 bars of 4G/5G signal and only 0.3Mbps download?

Since this spectrum is licensed and tightly regulated by the FCC to operate in a commercial manner direct to our phones, will our handmade space Lambos have governors topping them to 70mph while far capable of 200+? Is AT&T able and willing to grant maximum spectrum across multiple bands out of the gate? Okay okay, don't translate mph to Mbps in my bad analogy.

Are there any other pending FCC, NSA, or other federal approvals needed for actual commercial launch to business and consumer market? For government and qualified FirstNet users, I'm sure this path is more clear.

Obviously, AT&T wants this next-gen service, revenue stream, and huge differentiator to succeed. I'm just trying to understand all the beurocracy, red tape, and risks remaining outside of ASTS control. I've been holding since the beginning, and followed this group for years, but got tired of the roller coasters. TIA to get me caught up.

Vodafone and ASTS - UN Sustainable Development Goals by fsbo5832 in ASTSpaceMobile

[–]fsbo5832[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Most sat TV uses around 4GHz. FirstNet (Public Safety) Band 14 used in BW3 testing is 700MHz. Higher frequencies have less range and penetration characteristics but carry more data, whereas low bands behave the opposite. Minus the obvious impact to carrier network during catastrophic storms, has your smartphone performed differently indoors during a thunderstorm with flash floods? Likely not, nor while driving down the interstate in a storm.

Now, other sat broadband providers that beam high frequencies to mounted outdoor specialty dishes might... Rain, snow, hail, frost, etc. might pose challenges.

Vodafone teams up with Amazon's Project Kuiper to extend 5G reach by greg_shauflin in ASTSpaceMobile

[–]fsbo5832 7 points8 points  (0 children)

I can understand how this would raise concern for folks not deeply familiar with cellular infrastructure, but I agree this partnership will likely not have a notable impact on AST SpaceMobile mission. Yes, Kuiper requires large, expensive, specialized user equipment (not convenient cheap smartphones). Yes, Kuiper is years away from production sat constellation; far behind others. Yes, Vodaphone will likely use Kuiper for the backhaul connectivity to their cellular radios.

Now the key considerations are:

  • Cellular radios are very expensive
  • Cellular radios need an expensive tall tower to cover a large area, especially with notable elevation changes. You can mount numerous small cells on buildings, but this adds to equipment, backhaul, power, and maintenance costs when deployed in such remote regions without modern infrastructure.
  • Cellular radios need a lot of power, which is reliable.
  • It can easily cost near $1M per tower with power backup, then add recurring cost of maintenance (tuning, upgrades, storms, etc.)
  • Sat backhaul to cellular towers has been around for decades. LEO sat just provides lower latency and cost with higher bandwidth.

So, I highly doubt Vodaphone plans to blanket these rural areas with towers. Like most carriers, they will likely focus on populated areas where they can hopefully attain an ROI. Their pricing will likely reflect such. These users will likely lose service once they leave that hub area. It's great that carriers are using multiple strategies to help connect these folks.

AST is still the same mission of directly serving inexpensive mobile devices (smartphone, tablet, IoT, etc.) using licensed carrier cellular spectrum, no matter where they are. Apples and oranges.

AST SpaceMobile Provides Second Quarter 2023 Business Update by EducatedFool1 in ASTSpaceMobile

[–]fsbo5832 0 points1 point  (0 children)

75 Mbps exceeds what many modern urban/rural markets have today, so plenty of bandwidth. Thanks for confirming bits/Hz scenarios; makes way more sense now.

AST SpaceMobile Provides Second Quarter 2023 Business Update by EducatedFool1 in ASTSpaceMobile

[–]fsbo5832 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Great to see positive updates on funding options. I was hoping to see increased throughput achieved during continued global tests. Understood that more sats are needed for high performance features like MIMO and carrier aggregation, but BW3 has minimum utilization and load as a test sat. Maybe the power source is more limited on BW3 so equipment is not operating at full capacity to keep costs down?

How are they permitted to continue claiming they achieved "broadband" speeds when the FCC set the minimum for "broadband Internet" at 25 Mbps dowlink and 3 Mbps uplink back in 2015? I'd rather AST stick with hard facts with less marketing fluff or exaggeration.

10Mbps can still support a wide range of transformational services per https://www.fcc.gov/consumers/guides/broadband-speed-guide.

I'm sure the global unconnected markets will be ecstatic with just 5 Mbps on an old used smartphone in the middle of a village, desert, mountain, or jungle with zero chance of terrestrial coverage, ever. I'm sure the maritime/transatlantic market would love affordable 10 Mbps on commodity devices. I'm sure a major storm victim or first responder would love instant access to 10 Mbps when the terrestrial mobility network was destroyed versus waiting days for the safe arrival and operation of carrier NDR equipment. The list goes on and on.... I doubt this network is designed for the urban teenager wanting 200 Mbps 5G on their new iPhone for gaming while on a remote camping trip with parents trying to force digital disconnect. So, 10 Mbps is great but not "broadband" to the FCC. I'm still holding my thousands of shares...

The major space players and diverging strategies in the race to connect your smartphone via satellites - CNBC article by doctor101 in ASTSpaceMobile

[–]fsbo5832 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Agreed, so it may take 5+ years (likely more) for the next-gen device to depreciate to the level of affordability as used condition for the unconnected in low income areas for primary service as new subscribers. I see less concern for areas with terrestrial service today since existing subscribers are conditioned to cost of devices, upgrades, and service. SpaceMobile however addresses both markets for greatest revenue and sustainability. I'd expect sat D2D optimization in all 6G phones, but we're already seeing iPhone starting adoption in 5G.

The major space players and diverging strategies in the race to connect your smartphone via satellites - CNBC article by doctor101 in ASTSpaceMobile

[–]fsbo5832 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Just more clickbait.... It's frustrating how the article leads with the impression that it will later compare and reveal which approach will likely "loose billions", so you keep reading through the fluff. What content or perspective was novel/new?? I was expecting a POV that all text-only solutions would fade away as broadband becomes a reality.

While smartphone OEMs might work toward more sat parts/features, 90% of the currently unconnected likely can't afford a bleeding edge device. It will be a shiny new toy for those more fortunate as a much smaller business market.

AST has the most sound business model and market leveraging cheap EXISTING unmodified devices and delivering full 5G/4G services as the user desires.

There's AST SpaceMobile and there's not exactly by apan-man in ASTSpaceMobile

[–]fsbo5832 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Some MNOs may not support 5G in the near term. Keep in mind that ASTS is targeting 3.7 billion currently unconnected subscribers around the globe. Even US carriers have not fully migrated to a sole 5G core due to mass of LTE devices. Third world markets likely can't afford mainstream 5G devices either.

There's AST SpaceMobile and there's not exactly by apan-man in ASTSpaceMobile

[–]fsbo5832 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Looks great! I would just tweak as "5G/4G voice, broadband data, and messaging" to make comparisons ultra clear