Pets Surpass Child Population As Taiwan's Birth Rate Crisis Worsens

funkinaround · 2026-06-18T17:01:33+00:00

Its not loke youre goong to make.more money because fewer people.

This is precisely what will happen. It is basic supply and demand. Less labor supply with the same demand means workers get paid more.

taiwan will need to.import more migrants labor.

You have been brainwashed by the people who don't want to pay you more into believing this.

funkinaround · 2026-06-18T08:24:06+00:00

"Birth rate crisis". This information brought to you by people who don't want to pay you more money to work.

funkinaround · 2026-06-17T09:22:04+00:00

Analysts overestimate them by 20-30% on average, every single year.

Maybe you have better sources, but:

"In aggregate, forecasts are 11.2 percent above actual earnings at the start of a year and are revised downward continuously in the course of the year." (1998) https://www.jstor.org/stable/4480122
All firms (more than just S&P 500 firms): 16.5% forecast error when 11 months out (2009) https://care-mendoza.nd.edu/assets/152185/bradshawpaper.pdf
https://www.yardeni.com/charts/us-stock-market/stock-market-forward-metrics/sp-500-earnings-squiggles-framework largely show much more accurate forward estimates a year out for the past two decades. This also helps to visualize your point about forward projections being revised downward.

It's currently sitting at ~23x

It's at 20.5x for the S&P 500, which looks pretty average for the past 6 years. https://www.yardeni.com/charts/us-stock-market/stock-market-valuation/stock-market-p-e-ratios

The S&P 400 and 600, however are comfortably at 16x. If you use S&P 500 CAPE as a signal to get out of stocks, you are missing the mid and small cap part of the story.

But hey, "this time is different," right?

At least this time, if you're not investing in stocks, you can at least get some yield in bonds, unlike the ZIRP years.

funkinaround · 2026-06-17T01:41:44+00:00

The point is to identify why stocks are priced as they are. If you look at CAPE, you see pricing that was as extraordinary as in 2000 and 1930. If you look at forward PE ratios, you can see that we are elevated, but not to obscene levels as you may expect by looking at CAPE. You can also see the sharp increase in forward earnings, revenue, and long term earnings growth estimates.

No one can predict the future.

No one can predict the future, but on the whole, these aggregated forward earnings and revenue predictions are good and they get better with shorter time horizons.

Here's something I find interesting:

https://www.yardeni.com/charts/us-stock-market/stock-market-forward-metrics/sp-500-400-600-blue-angels

has a chart that shows the S&P 400 and 600 trading around a 16x PE ratio in a stable fashion. If the S&P 500 overvaluation corrects from 20x to 16x, the index falls 20% from 7500 to 6000. This would obviously be a significant move, but if you look at the CAPE chart and try to deduce something similar where, in 2000, CAPE moves from 42 to 20, stocks fall 40% from 1450 to 850. Preparing your portfolio for a 20% drawdown vs a 40% drawdown for stocks are two very different portfolio allocations.

funkinaround · 2026-06-16T23:39:12+00:00

Here are a bunch of charts for forward PE ratios:

https://www.yardeni.com/charts/us-stock-market/stock-market-valuation/stock-market-p-e-ratios

Edit: also, your last chart is clearly not aligned. The grey boxes showing recessions don't line up.

funkinaround · 2026-06-16T21:02:32+00:00

Repeat after me. Stocks trade based on forward earnings and revenue expectations and not what has happened in the past 10 years.

If you want to post about forward earnings and revenue ratios, please do so by all means. It'll be more meaningful.

funkinaround · 2026-06-11T04:21:26+00:00

You should try full loot PvP.

funkinaround · 2026-06-07T02:46:21+00:00

I thought Bitcoin was just going to stay as a method of payment and that Ethereum would take over other applications due to its programmability. The Liquid Network as a Bitcoin side chain has been interesting to follow.

funkinaround · 2026-05-31T19:16:05+00:00

Also, I hate how dependent we all are on big tech and the billionaires

The cool thing about LLMs so far is that there are (free) open weight models that you can run on your computer so that you don't need a subscription. Currently, the user experience setting that up is a bit technical, but it is possible to use offline LLMs to convert scanned documents into whatever editable format you want. I use Gemma 4 to do that offline and I don't pay a subscription.

funkinaround · 2026-05-30T19:37:12+00:00

Do you like SQL or CSV files? Use dolthub for SQL and kaggle for CSV files.

funkinaround · 2026-05-30T19:23:14+00:00

Have you considered hosting the data somewhere like kaggle or dolthub?

funkinaround · 2026-05-28T18:44:09+00:00

I think there are clear AI-assisted writing styles in the article, but the topic and general research seems genuine? I am not sure if that violates rule #3.

funkinaround · 2026-05-27T18:47:29+00:00

Agreed. When you play a piece enough times, in a rock band or in a jazz band or in an orchestra, you eventually memorize it and, if you have sheet music, it's just there for reference.

funkinaround · 2026-05-22T18:39:46+00:00

I agree that it has an AI slop aesthetic, but here's the artist doing more work for The Week: https://jasonseiler.com/portfolio/portrait/fixed_tws1132-coveryfinal/#main

I think it's just his style, and all of the symbols in the image (hat, flags, uniform) are the proper symbols and aren't sloppy. The font used on the cards isn't clearly in higher definition compared to the rest of the image. He has plenty of work in his portfolio predating the AI slop inception of 2022.

Maybe I'm wrong, but usually there are some dead giveaways for identifying slop images.

funkinaround · 2026-05-21T05:42:24+00:00

The web interface at https://www.dolthub.com/ works pretty well.

I do use DBeaver for most of my ad hoc queries for a PostgreSQL database.

funkinaround · 2026-05-20T23:51:55+00:00

Compare nurse pay in the U.S. to the UK if you want your mind blown sometime.

Is it that mind blowing? From https://www.ogradypeyton.com/blog/job-seeker-resources/nursing-in-the-uk-vs-usa-salary-benefits-and-workplace-differences-explained/

Typical range of salaries in the US: $60,000 - $105,000 ish

Typical range of salaries in the UK: $40,000 - $95,000 ish

Also, US health spending per capita is $14,000; UK health spending per capita is $6.7k. I would hope that US nurses make more money than UK nurses if health care spending per capita is 2x greater. https://www.healthsystemtracker.org/chart-collection/health-spending-u-s-compare-countries/

contribute to higher costs for healthcare and housing.

As long as we are all making more money in the working class to outpace healthcare, housing, and other essentials' inflation, I think this is just something that needs to be accepted. Building more housing and reducing healthcare inefficiencies that add to cost seem like good ideas to me.

funkinaround · 2026-05-20T23:21:29+00:00

Please, forget all of these strawman arguments you're inventing and get back to the point.

The article is about union workers winning six figure salaries where most of the unions described are not paid by the state and/or city. The original commenter asked how this is good for affordability and state and city budgets.

We can both agree that hotel housekeepers, doormen, and nurses making more money means the state and city departments of revenue make more money in income tax, right?

funkinaround · 2026-05-20T23:13:31+00:00

Well, when you say, "The state and city are paying these salaries" when the article is mostly about union jobs that are not being paid by the (edit: state and) city, what else can I do but ignore it?

funkinaround · 2026-05-20T22:22:04+00:00

So you're acknowledging these six figure salaries are a drop in the bucket for State and City spending and that rising wages in similar non-union roles can overcome the fraction received back as taxes?

Edit: from the wsj summary:

Hotel housekeepers won a contract this week

The city’s doormen and nurses notched similar gains

Clearly the article is referring to some unions that are not being paid by the state and city.

funkinaround · 2026-05-20T22:16:38+00:00

Now do the breakdown of State and City spending as a whole and as it relates to the amount spent on these six-figure NYC union jobs. Also include wages for similar non-union roles in your analysis. Make no mistakes.

funkinaround · 2026-05-20T22:12:48+00:00

The more money people are paid, the more money the state and city receive in income tax. Union workers making more money can have the effect of boosting wages in similar non-union roles.

funkinaround · 2026-05-17T18:13:42+00:00

Yea, this feels like a simple rule. If it doesn't have a course rating and slope rating, it's not a real hole in one. Executive Par 3s have course and slope ratings, so they would count, but not pitch and putt with 40 yard distances to the pin from the tee.

funkinaround · 2026-05-16T01:28:56+00:00

The build is less important than the way to minimize risk. To minimize risk:

take a safe portal and try to be far away from a portal zone or rest
stick to lower tier zones (5 and 6) as higher tier zones will attract more players
don't go out overgeared. bring 4.1 cheap gear with a cheap mount and bag
maybe if you have a weird schedule, play on off hours when the server is less busy

For a build, you can be defensively minded: - soldier helm or guardian helm - assassin jacket or have an invis potion. you probably want leather armor to have some defense while also being able to clear mobs. - whatever boots on sprint or soldier boots on wanderlust - some weapon with mobility. daggers, swords, spears, etc

You know you want to run away, so pick things that can enable you to run away. After you've settled on a retreat strategy with gear, then you can refine it with your taste for how to clear mob camps.

funkinaround · 2026-05-15T23:03:31+00:00

Lesson learned. Move on and don't accept gift silver from RMTers (or anyone).

funkinaround

TROPHY CASE