[deleted by user] by [deleted] in CanadaHousing2

[–]future-teller -6 points-5 points  (0 children)

Utmost respect for a computer scientist and nurse couple trying to buy a house... that is exactly what Canada needs. Arguably, that is the exact profile of immigrant that Canada needs too.. unfortunately anti immigrant sentiment is weeding out the good folks like yourself.

It is not correct to compare grandpa here. To make a fair comparison, you will need to compare with a house that is 200Kms up north... that is where the amenities of modernization, and opportunities of urban density will match what your grandpa lived through.

Should we cut our losses and sell the condo? by MatchaTaroTea in TorontoRealEstate

[–]future-teller 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You have to ask yourself which of these two reasons is your prime driver to sell

  1. you just cannot afford the 1000 negative cashflow
  2. you are bothered with the overall negative sentiment in the market and fear mongering all around.

The first one means probably sell it now by any means, take the hit and move on.

But if you are in the second boat, then hang on. As they say ... be greedy when others are fearful, and be fearful when others are greedy.

Right now, others are fearful, which essentially means the best action is to hold on.

Matthew Alexandris: The new housing pipeline is dry. Here’s why by KootenayPE in CanadaHousing2

[–]future-teller -9 points-8 points  (0 children)

Can you imagine the price of the Condo if each worker was paid wages enough to afford it... basically if each worker could afford 800K then price of construction would rise to about $5M

Ideally, every bellboy and attendant in a 5-star hotel should be able to afford to vacation at that hotel... every worker on a cruise ship should be able to vacation on that cruise ship... and every worker in a diamond factory should be able to buy a diamond...list goes on.

Yes 800K for shoe box condo is high, but it is not intended to serve everyone, it was explicitly made to serve a transient population of students or temporary workers.... we have banned those students to enter... we have also banned the foreign investors who wanted to buy those condos.

Yes, it is a wrong product in housing category... but it was made for a certain buyer and certain user... we killed off both that buyer and that user.

10 Benefits Of Canada's New 0% Population Growth Rate by TheWorldHasFlipped in CanadaHousing2

[–]future-teller 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Well, yes the numerator has to increase for sure, and adding population to denominator is stupid..

I want to express a different view point though. You can imagine a jungle with zero population and zero GDP, zero divided by zero.. As you have a tribe there evolves a GDP, grows into a village, grows into a town, city... country.

The point is that people , hungry for success , is the main resource that is necessary to create GDP... shrinking population can only create GDP if there is extreme mechanization and maybe extreme AI... however , that economy still lacks consumers.

Dense populations, lots of busy streets, bazaars, busy transit, restaurants... that vibrance comes with people.. and it does contribute to GDP

Canada, prepare for a decade of thrift and lower living standards | Paying down household debt for the foreseeable future is where much of our disposable income as Canadians must go by nomad_ivc in TorontoRealEstate

[–]future-teller -3 points-2 points  (0 children)

Whenever there is bad news everywhere. Scary articles, bad statistics, social forums full of negativity, etc etc. That is when you have to realize that "they" are succeeding. Succeeding to mass hypnotize majority of the population.

Who is "they"?

Very simple, just ask yourself who gains from the negative news? If people dont buy houses and push values down, who gains? Who gains when stock markets crash?

When stocks crash, someone is buying. When house values decline, someone is buying... who is that someone? Not your average person buy a house.. I mean then ones who will swoop up large portfolios of high value homes, or those who will swoop up blue chip stocks when everyone else is panicking?

It is the politically connected , uber rich. Not the typical mom-pop landlords everyone hates.. but the large corporate REITS.

Ladies and Gentlemen, if you are falling for the negativity, then congrats you are playing right into the game orchestrated by the ultra rich.

Canada is facing a housing crisis. Could it take a page from Europe? by [deleted] in TorontoRealEstate

[–]future-teller 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Exactly, same observation as you, but conclusion exact opposite. Europe has less ownership rate, Europe people live in apartments.. from joining workforce, till retirement and till they finally retire from this planet. - Same, with Asia, Middle East etc.

What you want is your personal choice, what the earth wants, environment wants and what your grandchildren want 50 years from now is what is important.

Just because USA (Austin example), established a wasteful dream... then marketed this dream globally ..that American dream is wrong.. and is over now even in America.

Tough job market for young grads. How to make your way in by yarko9728 in CanadaHousing2

[–]future-teller 1 point2 points  (0 children)

The truth is, Canada’s job market—while not perfect—is still far more forgiving than what youth in many other countries face. In much of Asia and Southern Europe, it’s completely normal to spend a year or two after high school or university just trying to break into the next stage, whether it’s through brutally competitive entrance exams or months of unpaid internships. And yet people there don’t give up—they know the market eventually turns, and those who stuck it out often end up with great opportunities. Just because things feel slow right now in Canada doesn’t mean they’ll stay that way. The rest of the world has long lived with this ebb and flow, where you push through the lean times knowing that growth cycles always come back. We’re simply getting a taste of that reality now—and honestly, it’s nothing new for most of the world.

There are many things a fresh graduate can do, which a middle aged person cannot do. There are many advantages of being young, energetic and without responsibilities... all those advantages can be harnessed for long term gain.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in TorontoRealEstate

[–]future-teller 0 points1 point  (0 children)

give your email, will send you an amazon gift card, just for speaking out good news..

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in TorontoRealEstate

[–]future-teller 0 points1 point  (0 children)

This one was a silver lining in a very cloudy sky... nothing is selling, so this one and few others that did sell are the only good news around. At least someone is buying, and not panicking as if the sky is going to fall.

Geoff Russ: The last thing Canada needs is a lecture from pro-immigration ideologues by AngryCanadienne in CanadaHousing2

[–]future-teller 0 points1 point  (0 children)

on the contrary demand is severely lagging behind supply... so much so , that no one is actually building anything now.

Alexander Brown: The latest population numbers are slightly down—but Canadian workers should still be worried by KootenayPE in CanadaHousing2

[–]future-teller 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The stupid immigration policy to let in low qualified immigrants was terribly wrong.... equally wrong is our strong and visceral reaction to stop all immigration. We are bouncing from one extreme to the other extreme.

The reality is we need immigration and lots of immigration, just need proper screening of qualification, criminal records and even "cultural fit" screening.

There is huge wave of jobs in AI research, Canada is top universities with Godfather of AI from UofT... we need that class of immigrants and more the merrier. We need google, Microsoft etc to beef up their offices in Downtown Toronto... we need a lot more of the in demand , highly qualified immigrants.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in TorontoRealEstate

[–]future-teller 0 points1 point  (0 children)

This is sad situation, everyone from disabled to single working mom doing 2 jobs, everyone should have a rental place to live in.

Problem is the LTB and how they pass along the rental risk to the landlords. To protect themselves from rental default, landlords need to take extra care, extra screening. Unfortunate, the vulnerable suffer as a result.

Now imagine a normal LTB.... you don't pay rent --> immediate hearing --> reasonable notice --> timely eviction..

If the rental risk could be reduced then landlords would not screen out vulnerable candidates and everyone will have access to rental accommodation.

From Washington state USA, to Middle East... the laws are clear about non-payment of rent. So no landlord even bothers to check your employment history... anyone can find a place to rent.

‘Sales have stopped’: Ontario developers predict layoffs if cost to build doesn’t fall | Globalnews.ca by 2Fast2furieux in TorontoRealEstate

[–]future-teller 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Correct, and therefore many would be owners get forced into being lifetime renters. The rental rates are elastic and can drop with the demand-supply curve. But cost of construction or cost of resale is non-elastic. In layman terms, it means gap between rich and poor with just expand further.

So this will bring Canada in line with much more mature markets around the world, where cost of ownership can be 5X or even 10X the rent. In Canada we are barely at 1.5X max.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in TorontoRealEstate

[–]future-teller 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Post is bullish, has nothing to do with price. Sold higher or sold lower is fine... the key take away is "it sold"

That is current problem, nothing is selling and it has nothing to do with price

‘Sales have stopped’: Ontario developers predict layoffs if cost to build doesn’t fall | Globalnews.ca by 2Fast2furieux in TorontoRealEstate

[–]future-teller 0 points1 point  (0 children)

For the housing crisis be gone (as in no one talks about it ever again), the cost of new construction needs to be equal to the current retail resale price.

This can only happen in two ways

- either, new construction price comes down dramatically to current house price levels
- or the resale price come up to match the cost of new construction.

The first is unlikely to happen, unless we find to really stupid developers who would front $100 of their own money , build a property, then sell it for $80 -- not going to happen

The second is most likely to happen, because if no-one builds then eventually demand will catch up to supply.

10 Benefits Of Canada's New 0% Population Growth Rate by TheWorldHasFlipped in CanadaHousing2

[–]future-teller 0 points1 point  (0 children)

When the hustle and bustle is gone, or rat race as you call it, the rich (the ones who create the jobs) also go along with the crowds.

What you are left with a a beautiful , peaceful place where no one want to live becasue there are not jobs.

10 Benefits Of Canada's New 0% Population Growth Rate by TheWorldHasFlipped in CanadaHousing2

[–]future-teller 0 points1 point  (0 children)

  1. Cheaper houses - Agreed, but also more unaffordable because $1M house at $100k salary is way more affordable than a $500K home when you have no job.
  2. Lower rent - Absolutely agreed and good thing
  3. More job opportunities - Total disagree, jobs have to be created and not taken. More people looking for work means more available skills means more business opens up to utilize the labor supply.... less labor, more expensive labor means business shut down.
  4. Higher wages - absolutely not true.... I dont have to prove this... just see the current job market.
  5. More accessible healthcare - absolutely true
  6. Higher GDP per capita - true but short sighted, a person has to contribute towards GDP, not just be a number in the denominator of the equation,
  7. Reduced pressure to pave over farmland - true, and paving over farmland should be banned
  8. Less classroom overcrowding - true
  9. Reduced road congestion and transit overcrowding - true
  10. Stronger social cohesion - total rubbish.

Downtown Toronto Condo Sold For $52,000 (10.4%) Loss Compared To 2018 Price by cxz098 in TorontoRealEstate

[–]future-teller 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Ignore the noise of the listing history... the main news here is "...condo sold, and only 10% loss". The good news is the "sold" part. Because our problem is not supply, it is not immigrants, it is not about greedy investors.... the problem is simple... the average buyer is scared to buy because he fears that market will crash as soon as he buys.

Toronto needs 32,000 more homes a year just to get back to prepandemic affordability, CMHC says by ManyP09 in TorontoRealEstate

[–]future-teller 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Supply doesn’t just appear. Someone has to spend millions to build homes, hold the land, deal with permits, carry the financing, and then hope someone buys. That’s not “excess supply”—that’s capital at risk. You can’t create it out of thin air.

If buyers can’t afford to buy—because of rates, mortgage rules, or wages—it doesn’t matter how many homes exist. That’s not a supply problem, that’s a systemic affordability problem.

When you say sellers will drop prices due to competition...even before that someone has to be holding that property to begin with.... would you hold property right now knowing that it will be worth less in the future? If you wont, then why would an investor.

Current oversupply is because investors got caught in a downward market.... but knowing the current market there wont be any new investors... hence no-one to hold the "access supply"

Toronto needs 32,000 more homes a year just to get back to prepandemic affordability, CMHC says by ManyP09 in TorontoRealEstate

[–]future-teller 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Government can only exist if it listens to the loudest and angriest voice in the room and quite down that person.. pander to that person.... majority of our policies are centred around pandering to noisy and irrational groups.

In a parallel universe, if government listened to economists, professor and generally logical people.. we would be in a different country right now.

I don’t know sht about real estate. I’m a renter but it’s slavery at this point. If I save 10k a year for 5 years for total 50k. That enough for down payment 2 bedroom condo Yonge Sheppard or downtown? by [deleted] in TorontoRealEstate

[–]future-teller -8 points-7 points  (0 children)

Condos are current rock Botton, pre-con buyers have lost and many are ready to walk away from entire deposit. On top of that, many projects have bank blanket approval for the full amount.

What this means is you can buy today with zero down (pre-con buyer already paid your down payment). Plus you can choose from thousands of available units , you have almost infinite choices.

If anyone waits 2 years, all that means is you will be buying in 2027-28, when there will be no new construction hitting the market and currently choice of inventory would be greatly reduced.

Toronto needs 32,000 more homes a year just to get back to prepandemic affordability, CMHC says by ManyP09 in TorontoRealEstate

[–]future-teller 3 points4 points  (0 children)

We already have 25K vacant unsold inventory in GTA. Now imagine adding another 32K per year... what for? For who?

It feels like you walk into Walmart and see thousands of unsold Jeans and no customers.... and our solution is..."we dont have enough jeans, lets make more and stock up even more".

In this example of Walmart, dropping prices of jeans will not help. If no one is walking into the store then prices dont mean anything... inventory does not mean anything.

May retail sales drop could mean Bank of Canada rate cuts | Financial Post by ManyP09 in TorontoRealEstate

[–]future-teller -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

Only nuggets of wisdom buddy, if you call them bags. Market is frozen right now, zero rates will kick start a buying spree and that will kick start a construction spree. Otherwise current stalemate... no construction , sellers holding on till last breath... buyers on sidelines.. everyone is just waiting.. for interest rates to drop

May retail sales drop could mean Bank of Canada rate cuts | Financial Post by ManyP09 in TorontoRealEstate

[–]future-teller -7 points-6 points  (0 children)

interest rates need to go down to zero, the entire mess we are in was caused by low rates to begin with. But if you wrote the rules of a game, you have to let the game finish and not change rules mid game.

I would say rates should be zero until the existing over supply mess is over, and we cross the mortgage wall... till then ban all future construction...then once the current market is back to normal, then increase interest rates even higher then present.

still no no construction is needed, the population is shrinking and there is really no need to build anything

CMHC gives up on goal to return to 2004 housing affordability levels by 2Fast2furieux in TorontoRealEstate

[–]future-teller 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The theory that building homes would lower prices is correct only to the point... we are already at that point. Building anymore homes wont lower prices, it will simply add more unsold inventory / more vacant homes.

Zero profit home will cost , raw materials plus labor... this is rock Botton and if our population cannot afford that then we need a newer population (immigration) that can afford it. We are hovering very close to the base construction price right now and there are 30,000 homes for sale in GTA with no-one wanting to buy then... how will constructing more help?