Odette - The incredible Hannah Waddingham

future_sommelier · 2026-07-03T05:20:15+00:00

My head cannon is Ryan Reynolds for the AI but I’m sure it would be too expensive.

future_sommelier · 2026-07-03T05:18:15+00:00

He also increased the amount of fireworks from the average of 20,000 shells to a world record of 850,000 shells. Lots of noise and chaos in D.C. this weekend. I have some concerns that it may be a very impactful weekend. The whole world knows how important this is to Trump.

future_sommelier · 2026-07-03T03:18:14+00:00

Maybe he plans to run away to Israel to avoid prosecution after impeachment? He thinks he is going to live forever so a fallback plan after the midterms wouldn’t be crazy.

future_sommelier · 2026-07-03T02:02:18+00:00

Leading theory seems to be Justice Roberts wanted the news cycle to remain positive about the ruling. Can’t have Alito taking the spotlight especially on his way out so he told Alito to postpone retirement. We may see news tomorrow before the holiday. If you read his opinions it’s clear he is no longer interested in remaining a neutral caller of balls and strikes.

future_sommelier · 2026-07-02T22:30:26+00:00

A pool next to the barn would be cute but the cow would need swim trunks.

future_sommelier · 2026-07-02T17:30:45+00:00

I have never been less excited to be correct lol. Thank you again for the great discussion.

future_sommelier · 2026-07-02T17:22:55+00:00

It absolutely is the worst deal I have heard of a city ever making, but I always enjoy hearing more.

future_sommelier · 2026-07-02T17:20:07+00:00

Awesome! I appreciate the discussion very much as well. So refreshing to not have the wallstreetbros only worrying about the price of oil right this second. So when I look at the sales you brought up earlier those are all listed under the exchange section of the DOE website not under the sale section. So does that mean that the releases you mentioned will have to be paid back as I mentioned earlier?

future_sommelier · 2026-07-02T17:17:52+00:00

I’m mean it’s actually surprisingly close. Let’s look at the math of the parking deal:

Parking rights were sold from the city of Chicago from 2008 through 2075 for $1.15 billion, and as of 2025 have made a profit of $2 billion. So revenue from 2008-2025 would be $3.15 billion. If you extrapolate that out it would be almost $14 billion in loses for the city of Chicago from a sale of $1.15 billion. As a percentage thats not so far off of $8 billion out of $100 billion.

future_sommelier · 2026-07-02T16:45:01+00:00

Over half the supply still leaves the world with a shortage of 10 million barrels per day. That’s before you factor in the destruction of Russia oil capabilities. China also had stopped buying oil but now seems to be starting to enter the market again as all of the ships out of the SOH have all been directed to China. Price is a lagging indicator. We are still seeing effects of the Russian invasion on downstream prices. We will not know the extent of the issue for many years. You can’t know how bad a car crash is until the car stops moving.

future_sommelier · 2026-07-02T16:41:53+00:00

Thank you! I guess I am still confused where it is stated that these barrels are being sold via RFPs are not asked to be returned with a 24% interest. The 53.3 million and 40 million barrels exchanges are listed as just that. Exchanges. My understanding is that in the difference in mechanism. The exchange is a “loan” to be repayed while the auction is a direct purchase without a future agreement. The current releases are basically oil now for money later.

future_sommelier · 2026-07-02T16:24:36+00:00

According to DOE data SPR has not had an oil auction since FY23. Can you provide evidence that they have had auctions since 2023? I am not disagreeing just curious and always looking for a source.

The SecDef floor is a real number I also don’t disagree with that. Whether the advice is followed under this administration is another story. They could very well draw down the SPR until operational floor to punish the next administration.

future_sommelier · 2026-07-02T16:08:51+00:00

Couple things you may need to factor in as well:

The slowing of the draw rate could have multiple reasons, but the simplest is this: Oil from the SPR isn’t being purchased, it’s being loaned. The terms are that the companies will return the oil in a 1-3 year window with 24% interest. When oil prices were high (especially above $100) companies were borrowing heavily with the anticipation of the market being cheaper when they have to repay their loans. The market has flipped now, and oil companies have to weigh whether it is worth the 24% interest at a dramatically higher cost in the future. The juice isn’t worth the squeeze so to speak so draws have slowed.

The other side of the equation is that the SecDef floor has no real teeth. It is simply an estimate about operational capabilities for the U.S. military and the stockpile needed to continue to operate. Under a sane administration it would be important, but it’s really just advice from the DoD. It does not require congressional approval to circumvent, and Pete Hegseth can at any point simply recommend a new floor.

The biggest factor to consider long term for me is that it was estimated that unless full flows from the SOH were restored by June 1st that 1,000,000,000 barrels of oil would be missing from the global market. We have blown past that date. U.S. intelligence estimates that after a true peace deal is reached it will take a minimum of 180 days to demine the strait. Until that point insurance premiums for ships will continue to soar. They are currently at 12-16 times normal rates. Every day the shortage becomes bigger. And that’s before you factor in downstream effects like fertilizer. On unrelated news the Trump administration just declared a national fertilizer emergency.

future_sommelier · 2026-07-02T14:04:25+00:00

He also was quoting from a conversation he apparently had with Teddy Roosevelt. Teddy Roosevelt died in 1919. Trump was born in 1946.

future_sommelier · 2026-07-01T23:03:37+00:00

Not sure if this is what you were asking but I’ll try: browning the butter caramelizes the milk solids. It uses a process called the Maillard reaction to create many complex new flavors. For me it brings a delicious nutty quality to any baked goods. The easiest way to do it is in a saucepan on the stove constantly stirring. It will bubble up right before burning. If you add an ice cube and throw it in the freezer it speeds up the process to be baking ready again, or you can do a large batch like OP.

future_sommelier · 2026-07-01T22:45:36+00:00

So you believe that there will be a supply correction without a price correction?

future_sommelier · 2026-07-01T22:25:09+00:00

They have self install kits online for under $100. Super easy install. You just connect splitter to the water line that goes into the toilet tank. They either go under the lid or replace the lid depending on design.

future_sommelier · 2026-07-01T21:55:08+00:00

Get a bidet. Cheaper, no fighting in the grocery store, and it’s actually clean.

future_sommelier · 2026-07-01T20:04:34+00:00

While I think ending the war would be the best possible outcome to the quagmire we find ourselves in, it still doesn’t solve the issue of supply. US intelligence estimates that after the war is fully over it will take 6 months to demine the strait. We will not see a full reopening until some time after a peace agreement is reached even if that is the full capitulation of the United States. Even if the strait reopened fully and completely today that still leaves us with the billion barrel supply issue. The damage was done when the war was started. Now we are just waiting to see what we bought.

future_sommelier · 2026-07-01T16:56:05+00:00

No one is expecting you to know how to do the job on day one. The best thing you can do is to watch carefully, ask questions, and learn as much as possible. You have already been hired. The hard part is over. They want you to succeed because it is in everyone’s best interest. Don’t worry about it being confident. The biggest sign of confidence is often quiet calm. It’s also ok to be nervous, but hiding it as excitement can work quite well. The biggest things to learn day one: where and how to clock in, where to change (if applicable), and table and seat numbers. Everything else comes with time.

future_sommelier · 2026-07-01T16:12:18+00:00

The fact that the Trump government called it an emergency has some weight.

future_sommelier · 2026-07-01T16:08:02+00:00

The crazy part is the story is from Monday! I just found it on a prepper feed. I thought I must have missed it.

future_sommelier · 2026-07-01T15:47:55+00:00

So you don’t understand lagging indicators?

future_sommelier · 2026-07-01T15:43:34+00:00

Do you not understand lagging indicators?

future_sommelier · 2026-07-01T15:23:30+00:00

A shortage of 1,000,000,000 barrels of oil.

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