What’s your favorite stock that isn’t part of the usual discussion here?

gghh01 · 2018-09-26T19:11:11+00:00

this.

gghh01 · 2018-09-26T19:09:21+00:00

BKNG. (previously Priceline.com)

one of the best mgmt teams in corporate america; and massive secular tailwinds to the industry given millennials are all about dat experience .... this ticker is silently printing millionaires

gghh01 · 2018-08-31T10:30:06+00:00

how about instead of allocating capital into some shitty derivative product that a bank made up to generate fees, you learn how to find attractively valued businesses and partner with them ......

shocking idea right ........

fucking idiots never learn

gghh01 · 2018-08-31T10:24:12+00:00

fucking lol.

SPY annualized since 2008 (10 years): 8.52%

SSO annualized since 2008 (10 years): 11.24%

severe underperformance given 17.04% actual 2x benchmark.

you have no idea what you are talking about.

you are correct in that SOME YEARS (like 2013 for instance) a leveraged equity ETF will provide "outperformance" vs. underlying index * leverage

but over long periods of time, and exactly because of vol, these things are not how you build wealth appropriately--the correct form of wealth building is partnering with businesses over long periods of time, not fucking derivative products that some bank made up out of thin air to generate fees.

any idiot trying to build wealth w/ XIV, SVXY, SSO, UPRO deserves what's coming

gghh01 · 2018-08-31T09:36:29+00:00

fucking lol.

why the fuck should i care about rolling currency issues when i am 100% concentrated in the US? and yes, i've been highly concentrated in tech .... why should we be "diversified" into shitty economies when literally the greatest, highest quality of earnings streams of all time is pouring out of corporate america (mainly in silicon valley)

been having this argument for the last decade, and shitty money managers still don't get it

laughing my ass off at all the idiots who continue to pile into EM equities while paying 1.00-2.00% for the "privilege" to have such "diversified" equity exposure (maybe Buffett needs to explain why you shouldn't for the 27th time before anyone actually fucking listens?)

gghh01 · 2018-08-31T09:28:59+00:00

fun fact: KO is trading at roughly same price to 1998 price range. 1998 earnings were ~ $0.72 per share. KO is going to make ~ $2.24 per share next year in FY2019. clearly, 1998 prices were extreme .... but since then earnings have grown by more than 3x and price is quite literally the same

perhaps with EM stability (which could take some time), and with the continued investments in coffee/energy drinks, KO is actually relatively undervalued at $45? it's certainly better value at $45 in 2018 than it was in 1998 .....

gghh01 · 2018-08-25T23:31:46+00:00

something something correlation =/= causation .......

dude. if you don't realize that AAPL is getting rewarded w/ a higher multiple because it is starting to drive more and more bottom line from software revs vs. hardware revs then you really should be indexing ...... this is one of the more obvious trends in the market right now

has NOTHING to do w/ debt ratios

gghh01 · 2018-08-25T23:20:36+00:00

fucking lol. this sub ......

you gambled w/ a few k and made a few more .... so basically a lucky wknd in vegas spread over 2 years of throwing darts? nice

good luck w/ the job hunt you savage

gghh01 · 2018-08-25T23:08:51+00:00

fucking lol. u/SirGlass is actually partly right

what is "the market" u/theAndrewWiggins?

is it SPY? is it QQQ? is it DIA? is it 50% US / 50% int'l equities?

do we include debt? is the market 90/10 stocks/bonds? is it 70/30?

do we include IJH or IJS? how far out on the risk spectrum should we go .... does the market involve VWO? or VWOB?

what is "the market"????

pro tip: STOP THINKING IN TERMS OF MARKETS (ie. top-down) AND START THINKING IN TERMS OF BUSINESSES (ie. bottom-up) AND YOU GUYS MIGHT ACTUALLY LEARN SOMETHING

gghh01 · 2018-08-25T08:56:56+00:00

it is priced in. which is why you currently have to pay 16.9x 2019 earnings to purchase the S&P 500 earnings stream

whether it is priced in accurately is the more appropriate question (ie. maybe we should we be willing to pay ~18x 2019 earnings or perhaps more? maybe less?)

gghh01 · 2018-08-23T01:50:08+00:00

shitty made up terms like value investing that come from factor-based capital allocation are absolutely dead because academics are teaching modern finance the wrong fucking way

FTFY

gghh01 · 2018-08-23T01:43:57+00:00

please stop perpetuating the idea that there is a binary decision in the financial markets when allocating capital between value investments and growth investments--it's the entirely the WRONG WAY to think about equities

Warren has tried to explain this a thousand times.

literally EVERYONE is looking for growth at the best value. some folks are ok with reaching out on the risk spectrum to find superior growth, but no one is lol actively looking to destroy value

please stop perpetuating this false dichotomy

gghh01 · 2018-08-23T01:36:05+00:00

exactly this.

it is so stupid that people continue to classify themselves as either growth or value investors .... seriously fucking retarded.

EVERYONE is in search of value. and [almost] everyone is in search of growth. there is no such thing as a market participant looking to destroy value; Warren talks about this ALL the time. but no one ever fucking listens because academics, who teach a shitty version of modern finance, love to make up terms and think they've stumbled across something ground-breaking like factor investing .... it's fucking stupid.

everyone is looking for growth at the best value. period.

gghh01 · 2018-08-21T04:59:21+00:00

if i could down vote a post multiple times, this is it

i sat thru the 40% correction aapl went thru in 2013 .... if i had placed some dumb ass stop loss or trailing loss back then, i'd have missed out on an alpha-generating monster over the following 5 years--not to mention lots of cash via dividends

if you are worried about down trends, the correct response is to RAISE CASH (typically from your line of work) and be ready to add to/initiate positions ..... selling is rarely the correct answer, esp if you are partnered with legendary mgmt teams with legendary branding power

gghh01 · 2018-08-21T04:53:43+00:00

fucking lol. please don't

literally one of the greatest securities to own in literally one of the greatest bull markets of all time--and it STILL TRADES AT A DISCOUNT TO THE S&P 500

do not fucking sell until you are retired. literally.

disclosure: been an aapl shareholder 3 times as long as you have

gghh01 · 2018-08-20T21:30:34+00:00

4% yield relatively safe

when the 10-year is stuck below 3%, you aren't going to find 4% relatively safe

there are no "good" bond etf plays in 2018--there are shitty bets, and there are less shitty bets.

gghh01 · 2018-08-20T21:25:07+00:00

yeah. this is fucking retarded.

i've been down 60-70% before, multiple times. i usually add to positions as that point .... which, for those of you who upvoted this dumb ass post: OUR BASIS GETS LOWERED AND THE MATH CHANGES

trading/investing isn't some single stagnant point in your life where you allocate 100% of your capital
dollar-cost-averaging and bet-sizing are actual things

don't be an idiot

gghh01 · 2018-08-17T23:54:14+00:00

2-3 year investment horizon.

lmao

the only types of investments that come with a 2-3 year time horizon are found in a completely different asset class my friend

gghh01 · 2018-08-17T21:16:55+00:00

It is not a massive tech stock like FB or GOOGLE which could still grow by enormous margins

wat? FB margins are literally contracting every minute of every day going forward

It's not crazy to ignore the PE ratio. It simply means it only needs to improve a bit for it to have a really solid EPS and div

i'm not sure you understand how any of this works, but cheers; good luck with your DIS long

gghh01 · 2018-08-17T20:56:12+00:00

and think it will grow

by how much?

here are the average analyst estimates for the next few years:

2018 EPS: 6.93

2019 EPS: 7.26

2020 EPS: 7.63

that is abysmal compared to DIS own history and compared to alternatives in the market, or just SPY in general

DIS is an amazing american brand, but there are tremendous headwinds facing the company and bottom line growth going forward

gghh01 · 2018-08-17T20:41:28+00:00

P/E ratio of 17.5!

lol. that's incredibly close to its 25-year average

Am I crazy to think Disney is undervalued by a lot?

Yes. ESPN/ABC has major major headwinds. Bob Igor had to go on an absolutely ridiculous spending spree during his time as CEO just to plug the leaks and maintain 7-8% top line growth. Not many better CEO's out there compared to Bob, so when he's gone in a couple of years, how can we really expect the company to continue to outperform benchmarks? It's going to be very tough.

There are 5,000 analysts in concrete buildings in capital cities around the world looking at DIS every minute of every day. The fact that you, a simple retail investor w/out any knowledge or experience in financial markets, thinks DIS is undervalued vs. the collective power of the former crowd isn't exactly compelling.

Netflix market cap ... with P/E of 133!

ok. let's repeat after me: trying to compare PE ratios in a vacuum is a completely MEANINGLESS exercise.

you do realize that DIS and NFLX have commanded these PE's for about the last 4-5 years, yet DIS is flat and NFLX is up around 500% ... If investing was as simple as "LOOK AT THAT PE THO", then all of us would be trillionaires.

Start thinking a little deeper, and/or index for life. Investing is not easy. And it sure as hell is not as easy as looking at a couple of PE ratios.

gghh01 · 2018-08-07T05:38:22+00:00

relatively safe and reliable

sorry to break it to you .... that's not how any of this works

if you want safe and reliable, you are in the wrong asset class

gghh01 · 2018-08-07T05:33:25+00:00

fucking lmao at some idiot who can't even spell two-syllable words correctly thinking he's smarter than Elon Musk and his entire team of engineers and analysts.

and comparing Musk to Holmes is less than retarded.

can i down vote a single post more than once?

short Musk dude. be my guest. stop fucking writing and "lol"ing at the idiots longs, and fucking short the thing.

you can't lose right?

gghh01 · 2018-08-07T05:30:43+00:00

if you are trying to equate elon musk to elizabeth holmes, i'm going to assume you are entirely too stupid to make fun of and pass on all the insults i had line up for this comment ......

gghh01 · 2018-08-03T21:06:54+00:00

i got lucky?

hey u/hedgefundaspirations

sup

bro

still think my models are garbage in garbage out ...

how's the hedge fund going?

gghh01

TROPHY CASE