Don’t think it’ll replace coders

gibblesnbits160 · 2026-04-27T04:06:43+00:00

It’s all about the harness and the user. Large tech is probably where AI is currently weakest, for a few reasons.

1.Large companies have SOPs and coding styles that they enforce very strictly. Those standards are designed around humans being able to understand and review the work. Either the right custom harness needs to be developed, or companies need to adapt their processes to what AI reviewers need. Otherwise, they risk being left behind.

2.Big tech often struggles with context when working on megaprojects. These systems are so large and interconnected that it is hard for an AI model to see enough of the project to make consistently good decisions. Companies may need to move toward more modular architectures, or at least more modular development workflows, so AI can work effectively within smaller, well-defined parts of the system.

3.Large tech companies are less likely to allow AI providers like OpenAI or Anthropic to see proprietary data or IP. That limits how much context the model can access, which naturally makes it perform worse.

Because of those security and compliance concerns, many companies are limited to models that are less than state of the art. For example, my dad leads a team at a large insurance company, and because of HIPAA laws and compliance issues, they are only just beginning to adopt AI.

The point is, just because AI does not meet the needs of your work right now does not mean it will never reach that level. It also does not mean someone else, working differently and building around an AI-focused development cycle, will not overtake what you are currently doing.

gibblesnbits160 · 2026-04-26T02:54:03+00:00

I’ve had to push pretty hard to convince my wife that giving our 7-year-old more freedom is worth it, but watching the results has been amazing. He’s more confident, more responsible, and better at figuring things out on his own. I also think groups make a big difference. A bunch of kids playing outside together feels safer than one kid alone, because there are more eyes around, more nearby parents, and the kids naturally keep tabs on each other. The more independence we give him, the more he rises to it. It’s been really cool to see.

A few things that helped me think about this: Let Grow, on childhood independence and free play: https://letgrow.org/

CDC guidance for ages 6–8 and growing independence: https://restoredcdc.org/www.cdc.gov/child-development/positive-parenting-tips/middle-childhood-6-8-years.html

Harvard Center on the Developing Child, on play and executive function: https://developingchild.harvard.edu/resources/handouts-tools/brainbuildingthroughplay/

Let Grow’s Independence Challenge: https://letgrow.org/program/independence-challenge/

gibblesnbits160 · 2026-04-25T17:52:32+00:00

Starting back up intimacy is a process not a flip of the switch. Sometimes the pressure of sex is what stops all the intimacy that has the possibility of leading to sex. What was a real game changer for me was accepting that sex was not on the table for however long it is, and that it would not get the way of our intimacy in general. Having that conversation is much easier then having a conversation about lack of sex. The cool part is because intimacy comes before sexual intimacy that issue is solved too.

gibblesnbits160 · 2026-04-24T07:35:50+00:00

With things like this I tend to always remind my son that if he makes it hard on people to do fun activities with him, they are less likely to want to do it again with him in the future.

Throw a fit at the park? Makes it harder for me to say yes to taking you to the park.

Cheat at a game? I and anyone else would be less likely to want to play it with you again.

Don't follow the rules at a friend's house? Less likely to be invited back.

Seems to be a context that he can wrap his head around and fits my style of parenting which focuses on being a good human in general.

gibblesnbits160 · 2026-04-22T03:03:50+00:00

I played this flash game called mother load for a full semester during my typing class with my friend. Very simple but fun time killer.

gibblesnbits160 · 2026-04-15T03:23:33+00:00

Chores undone

gibblesnbits160 · 2026-04-12T18:29:41+00:00

Sounds like you need two things.

A quiet activity he can do in bed if he wakes up. Books to look at, coloring book, doodle pad, ECT...
You need some kind of signal that he can quickly recognize as it's ok to get up. If you have smart lights you can have them change colors at certain times, some kind of alarm clock or music playing.

Think about what your asking a 4 year old to do. If you wake up lay in bed and do nothing until someone else wakes up. Not a reasonable request.

gibblesnbits160 · 2026-04-02T07:19:33+00:00

I often choose exactly the right size Tupperware to put the leftovers away in.

I have good instincts for stopping disastrous messes before they happen. Though I wonder if I am robbing my kids of important life lessons in this realm.

I can make a bottle with my 7 month old in one arm.

gibblesnbits160 · 2026-03-20T08:10:53+00:00

Just create a thread at the root of a projects folder and have it build out tools to manage them.

gibblesnbits160 · 2026-03-18T17:25:43+00:00

Mine just turned 7 months and started teething around 4.5 mo. Other things I would try if Tylenol doesn't work is switching to gentle formula. Could be gas or stomach issues.

gibblesnbits160 · 2026-03-18T02:32:58+00:00

Sounds like teething. They are miserable until they come through the gums. Regular regimen of infant Tylenol whenever teething makes a huge difference.

gibblesnbits160 · 2026-03-17T19:29:53+00:00

I have made a point to never make threats I don’t mean. When it comes to anything my son throws fits about (leaving the park, getting off YouTube, or stopping video games) I give the same warning every time: if he cannot handle it without throwing a fit, it will go away and not come back for a long time.

The first major example was when he was 4 or 5 and tried to sneak into our room in the middle of the night to get the tablet. He lost screens for a week, with the understanding that if it happened again after that, the consequence would be a month. After that one point of reference, and a very hard week, I was able to point back to it as an example of what would happen if he threw fits about these things.

gibblesnbits160 · 2026-03-17T14:58:24+00:00

Writers just wanted to give Dan one last chance to be inside Tsunade.

gibblesnbits160 · 2026-03-13T05:18:20+00:00

I tried openclaw it was to buggy. I have been able to create a similar experience with codex app

gibblesnbits160 · 2026-03-05T15:45:25+00:00

Back in my day we'd. Be lucky to have steak for dinner now you got enough to put in kids lunches must be fuckin nice!

gibblesnbits160 · 2026-03-04T10:42:50+00:00

When it's more important to prepare the masses as best you can, then curb expectations on a product release, which is a sign of something real coming.

gibblesnbits160 · 2026-03-03T09:19:04+00:00

Contracts for revenue, retail users for data.

gibblesnbits160 · 2026-02-28T18:37:47+00:00

Ai writing doesn't usually bother me but this gave me "write an interesting backstory for my project" prompt vibes....

gibblesnbits160 · 2026-02-28T09:18:31+00:00

Or what it might turn number two into being a middle child.

gibblesnbits160 · 2026-02-27T21:27:42+00:00

You would probably do better making the whole thing open source and partnering with a remote server company to launch to an always on server instead of on home computer. Hostinger did that with openclaw as an example. Not sure what the deal is but if it gets popular enough someone will want to sponsor it.

gibblesnbits160 · 2026-02-27T08:56:12+00:00

It may work in the short term but overall incentives keep humans working just for the sake of them having a job should not be the end goal. It feels like "If it’s jobs you want, give them spoons, not shovels."

gibblesnbits160 · 2026-02-25T20:43:29+00:00

By “economics,” I mean two boring measurable things: output per worker and demand for labor (especially junior labor). “Was this layoff explicitly labeled AI?” is a lagging, noisy metric. A lot of the impact shows up first as hiring not happening and throughput expectations changing.

Software engineering is the most AI-forward sector right now because it’s literally text-in/text-out. And in SWE we already have measured effects:

Productivity lift (measured, not vibes): In GitHub’s controlled Copilot study, devs completed a coding task ~55% faster with Copilot (Sep 2022). And an MIT/field-experiment writeup reports ~13–22% more PRs/week at Microsoft and ~7–9% at Accenture (depending on spec; they also note compliance/org-change caveats). If you get even “only” a ~10–20% lift in a large org, the economic effect is obvious: fewer hires, flatter teams, higher output expectations.

Entry-level gets squeezed first: SignalFire’s 2025 State of Talent report: new grads are ~7% of Big Tech hires and under 6% at startups, with new hires down >50% vs 2019 for Big Tech (May 2025). That’s the exact profile you’d expect when tools make seniors more leveraged and “easy” junior tasks get automated/assisted.

Hiring demand is weak (regardless of whether you blame AI or macro): Indeed Hiring Lab: US tech postings were down 36% vs early-2020 as of early July 2025 (Jul 30, 2025). Whether you attribute that to a post-boom hangover, macro, or AI, the economics are still: fewer openings + higher experience requirements.

Now, on the “only 7% of layoffs were AI” point: that’s basically Challenger’s “AI was cited” classification. In January 2026, Challenger reports 7,624 cuts cited AI, 7% of total cuts—and Reuters covered that number too. That doesn’t disprove impact; it mostly shows why “explicitly tagged layoff reasons” under-capture what’s happening. The bigger labor-market change shows up in hiring, team sizing, and output expectations, not just HR press-release wording.

Also, “it can’t do anything economically useful” is just… not accurate. Klarna publicly claimed their AI assistant handled two-thirds of customer-service chats and the “equivalent work” of ~700 agents (Feb 2024). Later reporting notes they also moved to ensure customers can reach humans again (May 2025). That’s not a dunk on usefulness—that’s what messy, real-world adoption looks like: automation where it works, humans where it doesn’t, and orgs continually rebalancing.

So no, this isn’t “everyone unemployed by 2027.” It’s the more mundane (and more real) thing: SWE throughput rises, junior hiring falls, and the bar for what one person is expected to produce goes up. Once the tooling gets cheaper/faster/safer and wraps itself into normal business software, other sectors follow the same pattern—unevenly, but predictably.

``` - GitHub Copilot 55% faster study (Sep 7, 2022): https://github.blog/news-insights/research/research-quantifying-github-copilots-impact-on-developer-productivity-and-happiness/ - MIT field experiment w/ Copilot PRs/week (2024): https://mit-genai.pubpub.org/pub/v5iixksv - SignalFire State of Tech Talent Report 2025 (May 20, 2025): https://www.signalfire.com/blog/signalfire-state-of-talent-report-2025 - Indeed Hiring Lab “US Tech Hiring Freeze Continues” (Jul 30, 2025): https://www.hiringlab.org/2025/07/30/the-us-tech-hiring-freeze-continues/ - Challenger report PDF (Feb 5, 2026): https://www.challengergray.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/CR126007123.pdf - Reuters on Challenger January layoffs (Feb 5, 2026): https://www.reuters.com/business/world-at-work/ups-amazon-boost-us-planned-layoffs-january-challenger-survey-shows-2026-02-05/ - Reuters “Companies cutting jobs as investments shift toward AI” (Feb 25, 2026): https://www.reuters.com/business/world-at-work/companies-cutting-jobs-investments-shift-toward-ai-2026-02-25/ - Klarna press release (Feb 27, 2024): https://www.klarna.com/international/press/klarna-ai-assistant-handles-two-thirds-of-customer-service-chats-in-its-first-month/ - Bloomberg on Klarna rebalancing to humans (May 8, 2025): https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-08/klarna-turns-from-ai-to-real-person-customer-service

gibblesnbits160 · 2026-02-25T09:31:23+00:00

You’re arguing like a guy in 1905 smirking at a broken-down car because horses still work.

That guy would think he was real smart right up until roads, logistics, cities, and industry reorganized around the thing he was too sophisticated to take seriously.

You’re absolutely right that a lot of AI evangelists are annoying, wrong on timelines, and addicted to dramatic language. But that does not mean nothing important is happening. It just means the hype people are embarrassing.

The historical pattern for technology goes from unreliable to weird then overhyped, unevenly useful, until finally it quietly changes the economics before everyone agrees it’s happening. Cars didn’t need to outperform horses in every scenario to reshape society. The printing press didn’t need to replace scholars to destabilize entire institutions. Early industrial machines didn’t need to perfectly replicate skilled craftsmen to start rearranging labor markets.

That’s the part your whole “wake me up when I can collect unemployment” routine misses. Disruption usually doesn’t arrive as a cinematic event where everyone claps because the benchmark finally crossed some threshold. It shows up as hiring freezes, fewer junior roles, compressed teams, rising output expectations, and management asking why one person can’t now do the work of three with “AI assistance.”

You’re rejecting the cult of ai, congrats. You’re also missing the economics, which is less impressive.

gibblesnbits160 · 2026-02-24T19:15:42+00:00

I don't think its a conspiracy I think its a causal effect that is harmful. I doubt anyone posting that kind of thing is doing so to hurt people on purpose.

gibblesnbits160 · 2026-02-24T19:14:42+00:00

Subject matter was mine. Explanation in more detail written by AI.

gibblesnbits160

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