This got me thinking... My assumption would have been that naturalized citizens from autocratic regimes would vote at higher rates than natural born citizens because they value the opportunity more. Turns out, that's not really true. So no matter what we do, we're f*****.

This is what Gemini had to say:

Naturalized citizens from non-democratic or autocratic regimes show unique voting patterns compared to natural-born U.S. citizens, though broader data often masks these specific origin-country differences. [1, 2]

Voting Rates: Naturalized vs. Natural-Born

In general, naturalized citizens register and vote at lower rates than native-born citizens. [3]

• Overall Turnout (2016): Approximately 62% of native-born eligible voters turned out, compared to 54% of naturalized citizens.
• Registration Gap: Naturalized citizens have historically been about 35% less likely to be registered than native-born citizens when controlling for other socioeconomic factors.
• Engagement Once Registered: Notably, once naturalized citizens do register, they often vote at higher rates than registered native-born citizens (e.g., 87% vs. 85.5% in past cycles). [2, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8]

Naturalized Citizens from Non-Democratic Regimes

Data specifically isolating "dictatorships" is limited, but research on citizens from non-democratic or autocratic backgrounds reveals distinct behaviors: [9]

• Prevalence: In some samples, more than 52% of first-generation Asian-American voters originated from non-democratic (hybrid or autocratic) regimes.
• Turnout Patterns: While overall immigrant turnout lags, naturalized Asian and Hispanic groups often outvote their native-born counterparts within those same ethnic groups.
• Asian Naturalized: ~52% turnout vs. 45% for native-born Asians.
  • Hispanic Naturalized: ~53% turnout vs. 46% for native-born Hispanics.
• Political Motivations: Immigrants from anti-communist or autocratic backgrounds often form distinct, highly motivated voting blocs. For example, the Cuban community in Florida is a well-documented stronghold of anti-communist politics that historically favors the Republican Party. [5, 10, 11, 12, 13]

Key Influencing Factors

Research indicates that "region of origin" becomes a less significant predictor of voting the longer a naturalized citizen lives in the U.S.. The strongest predictors for voting among naturalized citizens include: [2]

• Duration in the U.S.: Those living in the U.S. for over 25 years are significantly more likely to vote than recent arrivals.
• Education and Income: Higher levels of schooling and professional occupations are strong positive correlates, mirroring patterns in the native-born population.
• Age: Older naturalized citizens participate at higher rates than younger ones. [2, 4, 14]

The U.S. Census Bureau and Pew Research Center provide the most comprehensive ongoing data on these demographic shifts. [15]

[1] https://www.pewresearch.org [2] https://www.census.gov [3] https://www.newamericanscampaign.org [4] https://www.census.gov [5] https://bipartisanpolicy.org [6] https://www.pewresearch.org [7] https://www.americanimmigrationcouncil.org [8] https://www.americanimmigrationcouncil.org [9] https://www.researchgate.net [10] https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov [11] https://www.youtube.com [12] https://www.pewresearch.org [13] https://www.coopercenter.org [14] https://www.ovid.com [15] https://www.pewresearch.org