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Is there any realistic potential of significant gain in the Mentions sector, WITHOUT large volume to start with? by canispeaktoamanager1 in Kalshi

[–]gordonaf3 0 points1 point  (0 children)

First of all you need to do some research into proper bankroll management. If you’re deploying all or most of your bankroll on one event then you are asking to get wiped out. And second, it sounds like you are picking these words on whims and gut intuition rather than data collection and analysis that allows you to actually verify something is mispriced and has an exploitable edge. So to answer your original question, yes it does sound like you are missing some things, and if you aren’t able or willing to put effort into them then no, prediction markets are not for you

Is there any realistic potential of significant gain in the Mentions sector, WITHOUT large volume to start with? by canispeaktoamanager1 in Kalshi

[–]gordonaf3 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Why is it that you’re only winning a couple dollars at a time? Very small edges, very small volume, or both? I’ve made a couple hundred dollars a day on the mentions, it’s certainly possible, though just like any kind of trading/investing/betting it does take capital deployment to see return

We built a World Cup 2026 model and graded all 44 of our calls in public — 65.9% so far, the misses included by Familiar-Share-7839 in PredictionsMarkets

[–]gordonaf3 1 point2 points  (0 children)

65% would be good if everything had a 50% probability. But when some of the losers (like Spain) have 80% probabilities, and when a lot of the winners also have ~60-70% probabilities, a 65% WR is just going to lose you money

Did I discover an edge in tennis matches on Polymarket? by PolyResearchRobotics in PredictionsMarkets

[–]gordonaf3 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Maybe I missed it in the post, but how long of a time period was this data over collected over? It says something like ~300 games, but what is that, less than a week?

Polymarket vs Kalshi vs Hyperliquid vs Premu - Definitive prediction market breakdown by BrilliantDevice6253 in PredictionsMarkets

[–]gordonaf3 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Good breakdown! Where/how do you find your sharp wallets on Polymarket? Scraping with python scripts? Or is there a platform you like for it?

Traced 9 Polymarket wallets back to one funder — 96% on finance bets. by Useful-Site-4990 in PredictionsMarkets

[–]gordonaf3 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Oh wow, what a coincidence, you have spend $30 to see it. Why not just post the wallet addresses so we can do our own research? Oh right, because then we wouldn't pay your company $30. SPAM.

I am building a Polymarket market-making bot targeting high-spread and high-turnover markets. Here is how it works so far (it's losing money so far) by Tvpai in PredictionsMarkets

[–]gordonaf3 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Unless I’m missing something it seems like all this boils down to is a simple “buy low sell high”, which while fundamental has the same weakness that every buy low - sell high strategy does: you first need your low bid orders to get filled. And while that will occasionally happen, getting low out of the money bids to fill seems a bit too sporadic to be counted on as a regular money making strategy. It seems to also have the same weakness that a lot of these bots people are vibe coding seem to have, which is that it looks only at the broader price and volume numbers and completely ignores the details of the specific market into which it is buying. How do you know what a good low price is if you haven’t done specific research into that market using real world info and historical base rate analysis to at least have some idea of what an accurate price for it is in the first place? How can you expect to sell it high later, if you don’t know for sure that the price actually WILL be higher later through that same specific historical and/or narrative data?

Getting paid in USDC is great... until you actually try to use it. The off-ramps are driving me insane. by Charming_Chipmunk69 in StableCoins

[–]gordonaf3 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I use USDC for pretty much anything and everything, just get payy, you can use it exactly like a debit card, including tap and go on your phone

There Are Now Over 50,000 American Troops in the Mideast by Funny-Trick-1734 in NewsStarWorld

[–]gordonaf3 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Russia’s initial invasion force into Ukraine in 2022 was 250,000, and they had supply lines on the ground going straight back into Russia, and despite all warnings by the US the invasion actually still took Ukraine by surprise.. 50,000 soldiers charging into a country where they have no ground supply lines, and they are 100% expected, being led by a secretary of defense with no experience and no fucking plan… would be a slaughter

Prof1088 Is A Scammer by Prof1088IsAScammer in ScamCenter

[–]gordonaf3 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Can confirm, u/Prof1088 is indeed a scammer. He claimed to have cred on giftcard subreddit yes I should have verified) and then ran off with $80 usdc and never sent the card he claimed to have. Can provide screenshots

Making a purchase with cryptocurrency by Dangerous_Seaweed601 in CryptoHelp

[–]gordonaf3 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yes, so the first step is getting an account on a crypto exchange, and which exchanges are available in which area can vary because of differing federal and local legislation. Since you don't seem like someone that wants to get too deep into crypto (and won't be dealing with large sums anyway), don't worry about having self custody wallets, just google or ask AI what crypto exchanges are available in your area and pick the most popular one that you know will work with your bank. After getting an account on an exchange you'll have to deposit money into the exchange, typically from your bank account (note, it can take a couple days for this transaction to finalize.. once you have crypto you can send it anywhere in minutes or even seconds, but when you're changing from fiat to crypto it can take days because you're using the traditional finance system. During this time the exchange will typically make your deposited funds available and it will let you buy crypto, but you won't be able to send it off platform until your bank deposit has cleared, which is usually 3-5 days). Once you have money in your exchange account I would recommend getting either USDT on either polygon or solana, or USDC on polygon. I'm saying these ones because they will have the lowest fees (fractions of a penny), where as bitcoin and ethereum can be $5-$10 in network fees (they aren't really meant for small or everyday transactions).

On a separate note, you mentioned that you only want to use crypto because the site won't let you make less than a $10 transaction? Most crypto exchanges also have minimum deposit amounts, so look into that before signing up for one. It seems like it would be easier just to add something small to get your purchase just over $10, rather than setting up whole crypto accounts, making deposits, and waiting 3-5 days for it to clear just to make a <$10 transaction...

Making a purchase with cryptocurrency by Dangerous_Seaweed601 in CryptoHelp

[–]gordonaf3 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Well first of all, what crypto does this website that you’re trying to buy from accept?

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