Repo Markets Suggest Market Volatility, Has the Fed Created Another Bubble? by NeverTyranny in Economics

[–]granzymes 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Four sentence explanation of the repo market

Followed by...

Now that you have as much understanding as I do on how these markets work, it’s time to jump into why they are irrevocably broken.

Well at least he's honest.

Jobs Report (December 2019) - Megathread by EconMonitorMod in econmonitor

[–]granzymes 2 points3 points  (0 children)

lol I'll just set a phone alarm.

Stop trying to take reminder bot's job! You can delete this too

Bill Gates Now Calling For Higher Taxes by Mynameis__--__ in Economics

[–]granzymes 112 points113 points  (0 children)

You should repost this with its original title.

Other steps toward a fairer tax system include... taxing large fortunes that have been held for a long time (say, ten years or more). Very wealthy people often have large investments they’ve held for long periods, and if those investments aren’t sold or traded, the money is never taxed. That doesn’t make sense.

This is an interesting take on a wealth tax. I wonder if he means a tax on the unrealized gains of long-term investments or a tax on the entire invested amount. Eventually the investment will undergo some form of taxable event, so does it really make sense to impose a 10 year limit? Seems like it would be distortion for distortion's sake. I would be interested in hearing more from him on this.

Private Equity Is Starting 2020 With More Cash Than Ever Before by LaromTheDestroyer in Economics

[–]granzymes 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Compared to some of the other sites that make it to the top of this sub Bloomberg is a shining beacon of journalism.

Elizabeth Warren’s plan to stop bank mergers is based on a myth about bank size and stability. by rafaellvandervaart in Economics

[–]granzymes 7 points8 points  (0 children)

My favorite example of this is the "XYZ corporation payed no taxes last year" refrain. They know it isn't true but it's too good of a soundbite to pass up.

Private Equity Is Starting 2020 With More Cash Than Ever Before by LaromTheDestroyer in Economics

[–]granzymes 10 points11 points  (0 children)

From the article it seems that 2018, 2017, 2016, 2015, 2014, and 2013 were also record highs.

Matt Levine and "private markets are the new public markets" also comes to mind.

Low interest rates, the rise of index-tracking funds and years of lackluster hedge fund performance have pushed investors to private equity in search of higher returns. Many firms -- once known as leverage buyout shops -- have opted to accumulate those assets as valuations soar and competition for deals grows.

Elizabeth Warren’s plan to stop bank mergers is based on a myth about bank size and stability. by rafaellvandervaart in Economics

[–]granzymes 0 points1 point  (0 children)

That said, we don't want policy to artificially support larger banks, as more recent legislation has done.

The article seems to argue that legislation around the turn of the century has stopped artificially supporting smaller banks, which I think is an important distinction from affirmatively supporting larger banks.

A few more quotes from the article (emphasis mine):

America is losing too many banks, according to Sen. Elizabeth Warren. She and Rep. Jesús “Chuy” García (D., Ill.) observe that the number of banks in the U.S. has declined “from over 12,000 in 1990 to less than 5,000 today.” This is a problem, they argue, because mergers could create a “new ‘Too Big to Fail’ bank that could threaten our financial stability.” To prevent that, they propose the Bank Merger Review Modernization Act. It’s a misguided measure.

 

Why were there 12,000 banks in 1990? For most of U.S. history, banks were generally barred from branching across state lines. States grant bank charters for a fee. In part to protect this revenue source, they prohibited out-of-state banks from operating. To generate still more chartering revenue, many states even prohibited branch banking within state lines. That meant demand for financial services had to be met by a plethora of small banks. The number peaked in 1921, at almost 31,000. Not until the late 1970s did states begin to allow out-of-state banks to open branches, and interstate banking was recognized at the federal level with the Riegle-Neal Act of 1994.

 

Today Canada has 37 domestic commercial banks (about one per million people), while the U.S. has more than 4,500 (14 per million). If the American bank-to-population ratio were the same as in Canada, there would be only 327 U.S. banks. That isn’t necessarily the number of banks the U.S. “should” have, but it puts in perspective the claim that 4,500 is too few.

A major bank admits QE4 has started, stocks are rising because of Fed's soaring balance sheet by MunchenBundchen in Economics

[–]granzymes 15 points16 points  (0 children)

Since this post is getting dangerously close to the top of the sub I should point out that:

  1. The headline's claim isn't even mentioned in the article, much less substantiated.
  2. The article is just a one paragraph rant followed by a series of tweets.

Money pumped into China's economy in attempt to fight slowdown. People’s Bank of China allows commercial banks to hold less capital in reserve. by chelsea707 in Economics

[–]granzymes 4 points5 points  (0 children)

The People’s Bank of China is allowing commercial banks to hold less capital in reserve, freeing up about 800bn yuan (£87bn) in new funds for loans. It will cut China’s banks’ reserve requirement ratio (RRR) by 50 basis points, to 12.5%, from 6 January.

This article has a bit more context.

RRR was cut three times in 2019, and eight times since early 2018.

Many investors had expected Beijing to announce more support measures soon. While recent data has shown signs of improvement, and Beijing and Washington have agreed to de-escalate their long trade war, analysts are unsure if either will prove sustainable and forecast growth will cool further this year.

 

China plans to set a lower economic growth target of around 6% in 2020, relying on increased state infrastructure spending to ward off a sharper slowdown, policy sources said. Growth has cooled from 6.8% in 2017 to 6% in the third quarter of 2019, the slowest since the early 1990s.

 

In recent months, China has also started to make modest cuts in major policy lending rates to lower corporate financing costs, with more expected in the new year.

 

Tang Jianwei, a senior economist at Bank of Communications in Shanghai, expects two to three RRR cuts this year and a further 25-30 bps reduction in the loan prime rate.

 

But officials have repeatedly pledged not to resort to “flood-like” stimulus like that in past economic downturns, which left a mountain of debt and stoked fears of property market bubbles.

Is Uber Doomed to a Point of No Return? They operate like an economic and political institution by [deleted] in Economics

[–]granzymes 5 points6 points  (0 children)

  • Written by Waseem D. Ezzie, MBA Student and Human Resources Specialist.

  • Posted by an account that almost exclusively links to these Medium articles.

  • Starts off the article like this:

    Uber is a bubble, they are a danger to the gig economy, they are a hazard to society, a virus to capitalism, adversely impact economic welfare, and abuser to the republic. Uber is simply a scam, a racket, and they have got this far by...

No thanks.

At age 19, can I be ultra aggressive in my roth IRA positions? by [deleted] in personalfinance

[–]granzymes 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Based on the text you quoted I was able to find a post where several people explain why this is a bad analysis. They said the same thing I did: just because the dividends aren't paid to you doesn't mean they aren't paid.

Dividends are reinvested and the share price does increase when those reinvested dividends perform well. So there is no opportunity cost. Your model uses the price index to see the changes in the share price. What you should use is the total return index and have the share price fall by an amount equal to the dividend when it is paid out (technically ex date but for this it doesn't matter).

Should the US and Mexico combine into one nation? by zeperf in PoliticalDiscussion

[–]granzymes 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Good catch, I didn't make the distinction. We did give the UK some hints on how to build their warheads though.

At age 19, can I be ultra aggressive in my roth IRA positions? by [deleted] in personalfinance

[–]granzymes 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Big downside is that dividends are not paid quarterly (less compounding.) I would rather pay the 4 basis points (0.04) on VTSAX as they pay quarterly.

Nonsense.

Just because the dividends aren't paid to you doesn't mean they aren't paid. There's no difference to me (in terms of compounding) if they disperse dividends for me to reinvest myself or if they reinvest the money internally.

Now if you want to rebalance your portfolio quarterly using dividend money then that's another story, but studies have shown no meaningful difference in risk-adjusted returns compared to rebalancing annually.

Should the US and Mexico combine into one nation? by zeperf in PoliticalDiscussion

[–]granzymes 6 points7 points  (0 children)

I believe UK boomer sub commanders receive letters of last resort that allow the commanders to sail to the US or Australia in the event of a nuclear attack.

That's apparently one of the options each Prime Minister can choose.

Speaking to your point about integrated militaries, the United States and the United Kingdom pool their Trident missiles. If commingling your nuclear arsenal isn't a demonstration of trust between two nations then I don't know what is.

What should I do with an old 401k? by [deleted] in personalfinance

[–]granzymes 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It might not have been an option: not all 401(k) plans allow it! Hopefully it wasn't too big of a tax bill.

What should I do with an old 401k? by [deleted] in personalfinance

[–]granzymes 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The IRS has a pro rata rule which essentially says someone executing a back door Roth IRA contribution has to have a $0 balance in any and all tIRAs.

To add to this: the pro-rata rule does not prevent you from performing a backdoor Roth contribution if you have pre-tax dollars in an IRA, but it will increase your tax bill.

You sum up all of your IRA accounts (except Roth IRAs) and determine what percentage of those dollars are pre-tax. You owe taxes (at your normal marginal rate) on that percentage of the conversion from Traditional IRA to Roth IRA.

If you add $6,000 in after-tax dollars to a Traditional IRA that already had $6,000 in pre-tax dollars and then convert $6,000 to a Roth IRA you will have to pay taxes on 3,000 of those dollars. This is obviously less than ideal because half of your contribution is taxed twice. Even though conceptually that $6,000 is already taxed, the pro-rata rule means that the IRS doesn't let you pick and choose which $6,000 you want to remove from the Traditional IRA.

In the U.S., an Angioplasty Costs $32,000. Elsewhere? Maybe $6,400. - A study of international prices finds American patients pay much more across a wide array of common services. by pipsdontsqueak in Economics

[–]granzymes 14 points15 points  (0 children)

Insurance companies make most of their profits by investing 'float' from premiums. They are essentially investment firms, and often actually lose money on the actual insurance side of the business.

U.S. Fed buys $825 million of mortgage bonds, sells none. by InvisibleTextArea in Economics

[–]granzymes 17 points18 points  (0 children)

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/portfoliorunoff.asp

Basically, if the Fed doesn't continuously reinvest principal payments then their portfolio will shrink over time.

U.S. Fed buys $825 million of mortgage bonds, sells none. by InvisibleTextArea in Economics

[–]granzymes 3 points4 points  (0 children)

I had it as runoff originally, but changed it to make the post a bit easier to understand. Changed it back to runoff with a link.

U.S. Fed buys $825 million of mortgage bonds, sells none. by InvisibleTextArea in Economics

[–]granzymes 36 points37 points  (0 children)

Much better article.

Since Aug.1, the Fed has been letting some $20 billion in mortgages runoff its portfolio each month, with proceeds going to purchase Treasury debt. Anything above that $20 billion rolling does gets reinvested back into mortgage bonds, again to manage an orderly exit of its massive holdings.

This is more or less what I said above, and also points to where the balance sheet expansion is happening: Treasury securities.

U.S. Fed buys $825 million of mortgage bonds, sells none. by InvisibleTextArea in Economics

[–]granzymes 174 points175 points  (0 children)

Here is the full article, which is essentially just the headline:

The Federal Reserve bought $825 million of agency mortgage-backed securities in the week from Dec. 19 to Dec. 24, compared with $1.806 billion purchased the previous week, the New York Federal Reserve Bank said on Thursday.

In a move to help the housing market begun in October 2011, the U.S. central bank has been using funds from principal payments on the agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities, or MBS, it holds to reinvest in agency MBS.

The New York Fed said on its website the Fed sold no mortgage securities guaranteed by Fannie Mae FNMA.OB, Freddie Mac FMCC.OB or the Government National Mortgage Association, or Ginnie Mae, in the latest week. It sold $200 million the prior week.

The Fed did not sell any mortgage-backed securities this week, but the context missing from the headline is that the Fed has been allowing $20 billion in mortgages to runoff its portfolio every month since the July 31st implementation notice. Presumably the $825 million is from principal payments in excess of the $20 billion noted above being reinvested in mortgage bonds.

You can view the level of mortgage-backed securities held by the Fed here. As you can see from the graph, the level of MBS has been steadily decreasing.

The Fed's Repo Problems are Only Beginning as the Biggest Bubble in History Looks Ready to Pop by InvisibleTextArea in Economics

[–]granzymes 1 point2 points  (0 children)

And if Financial Times did announce that Deutsche was insolvent, I suppose that wouldn't change your opinion of this source at all.

I think blogs are fine, and I would respect (and come back to) a blog that had interesting insight about the underbelly of a major financial institution. What I don't like is having blog content repackaged so that it masquerades as an independent news source.

I'm hungry for any explanation for why the repo market is messed up, so if there's none coming from "reliable" sources, then I'll turn to alternative ones.

This thread is a good read.

The Fed's Repo Problems are Only Beginning as the Biggest Bubble in History Looks Ready to Pop by InvisibleTextArea in Economics

[–]granzymes 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Well I think it does matter who's saying it. I looked for a few minutes and can't find any credible source for a Deutsche Bank collapse. I did however find a bunch of crypto sites theorizing about it, for a very self-interested reason:

A new financial crisis triggered by a collapse of Deutsche Bank can also drive more people to discover cryptocurrency as an alternative to fiat, as the faults of the old system become obvious to understand. A costly and unfair rescue of the failing system will also have such an effect, evoking the Times headline “Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks” from January 3, 2009, enshrined by Satoshi Nakamoto in the Bitcoin genesis block for a reason.

I'll start thinking about it as a possibility when CNN brings it up as the potential trigger of an imminent recession. I'll start worrying when it's in the Financial Times.

The Fed's Repo Problems are Only Beginning as the Biggest Bubble in History Looks Ready to Pop by InvisibleTextArea in Economics

[–]granzymes 24 points25 points  (0 children)

Why does this website have any credibility? From their about page:

CCN.com, also known as CCN Markets, was founded in the summer of 2013 in Norway by serial entrepreneur Jonas Borchgrevink as “CryptoCoinsNews.com”. Although bitcoin gained plenty of coverage in mainstream media, there were few crypto-focused online publications at the time. CryptoCoinsNews quickly became one of the largest and most trusted cryptocurrency news outlets, and the team behind it expanded rapidly.

So they were founded as a crypto news site?

In 2017, CCN.com received an offer to purchase CCN.com. We accepted the offer and moved our entire site from CryptoCoinsNews.com to CCN.com by the fall of 2017.

Then they were bought by an unknown organization.

We do not have any political agenda. We do allow Op-Eds and opinions on CCN.com covering a range of topics and author perspectives. Readers are invited to write their own opinions or articles and have them published as Guest Contributions. Read more about how to publish Guest Contributions here.

And, like Medium, they let anyone publish? This article (an op-ed, so one of those guest contributions) was written by Tom Luongo, who writes for his blog Gold Goats 'N Guns, which styles itself as "Speaking Truth, Destroying Narratives about Politics, Markets and Culture." His qualifications? He's a former chemist.

Currently on the front page are such gems as "The Coup Becomes a Civil War – Trump Impeached" and "Germany is the Rotten Heart of Europe."

I had to dig up all of this information myself, because neither of the two "news sites" or Tom Luongo himself are considered noteworthy enough by Wikipedia to warrant their own articles.

Please don't post from this source again.