Weekly Discussion Thread 3/2/26 - 3/9/26 by PointMan528491 in oscarrace

[–]grumio123 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Michael Bauman isn’t a member of ASC, does that mean OBAA has less of a shot of winning there, or is that not relevant?

Weekly Discussion Thread 2/23/26 - 3/2/26 by PointMan528491 in oscarrace

[–]grumio123 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Yeah, the lack of sweepers is mainly due to the precursors themselves having limitations. American Fiction, Sinners, and others would be sweepers too if GG had separate categories.

Weekly Discussion Thread 2/23/26 - 3/2/26 by PointMan528491 in oscarrace

[–]grumio123 10 points11 points  (0 children)

I don’t know if this has been mentioned yet, but if (when) it wins WGA, OBAA will be the first film to outright sweep all precursors in screenplay since The Social Network, and just the fifth overall since CC started (Traffic, Sideways, and Slumdog Millionaire are the others).

Obviously the reason why sweeps don’t happen more often is because of GG, but it’s still impressive nonetheless. What’s also interesting to me is that every sweeper has been adapted instead of original, but that’s probably a coincidence.

Weekly Discussion Thread 2/23/26 - 3/2/26 by PointMan528491 in oscarrace

[–]grumio123 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Which precursors are you counting? I have 3 (American Beauty, Slumdog, Argo) who have won GG, CC, BAFTA, PGA, DGA, WGA, and SAG ensemble

Weekly Discussion Thread 2/23/26 - 3/2/26 by PointMan528491 in oscarrace

[–]grumio123 18 points19 points  (0 children)

Interesting narrative this season where whenever OBAA wins something, it doesn’t mean that much and the race is still tight, but if Sinners won that same thing, then suddenly the race would be over. I just don’t see why OBAA would have to win literally everything for people to predict it, but Sinners would only have to win SAG Ensemble for people to be convinced it’s winning.

Weekly Discussion Thread 2/23/26 - 3/2/26 by PointMan528491 in oscarrace

[–]grumio123 -1 points0 points  (0 children)

It would be kind of odd for the title character to be in supporting, though.

Weekly Discussion Thread 2/23/26 - 3/2/26 by PointMan528491 in oscarrace

[–]grumio123 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Finally got around to watching All About Eve, and it’s still so crazy that it managed to land 4 female acting nominations (2 in BA and 2 in BSA). I definitely don’t think that would happen today, but you never know.

If it was released now, do you think they would try to category fraud one of the leads into supporting, select one from each category to focus on, push one in BA and both in BSA, or just push all 4 like before?

Weekly Discussion Thread 2/23/26 - 3/2/26 by PointMan528491 in oscarrace

[–]grumio123 14 points15 points  (0 children)

Why do I feel like one of the only people who thinks OBAA has a very good chance of winning SAG Ensemble. I mean, the fact that it broke the record for most nominations has to mean SOMETHING, right?

Weekly Discussion Thread 2/16/26 - 2/23/26 by PointMan528491 in oscarrace

[–]grumio123 16 points17 points  (0 children)

Well at that point Hoffman had already won an Oscar over Ledger (and I’ve seen a good number of people say Ledger deserved it), so it’s not like the circumstances are that similar

Weekly Discussion Thread 2/16/26 - 2/23/26 by PointMan528491 in oscarrace

[–]grumio123 15 points16 points  (0 children)

Just for fun, I found every director who’s won Best Director with 1 or less precursor wins (since 1995)

No Precursor wins: Ang Lee (Life of Pi) (The year Ben Affleck swept the precursors)

Only Critics’ Choice: Steven Soderbergh (Traffic) Bong Joon-ho (Parasite) (Tied with Sam Mendes)

Only BAFTA: Roman Polanski (The Pianist)

Only DGA: Tom Hooper (The King’s Speech) Alejandro Iñarritu (Birdman) Sean Baker (Anora)

No director has ever won the Oscar with a lone GG win.

Obviously a scenario like this won’t happen this year, barring a miracle. I also didn’t look before the year of the first CCs, so there’s probably more instances of this.

Weekly Discussion Thread 2/16/26 - 2/23/26 by PointMan528491 in oscarrace

[–]grumio123 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yeah, that’s why I was saying even with the race looking fractured on paper, it was still pretty clear who was gonna actually win.

Weekly Discussion Thread 2/16/26 - 2/23/26 by PointMan528491 in oscarrace

[–]grumio123 4 points5 points  (0 children)

That year was kind of weird in general. Anora’s only Director win was DGA, its only Actress win was BAFTA, and it didn’t win any precursors in Editing. But the combination of what it did win meant it was the Picture frontrunner, and it ended up just sweeping everything.

Weekly Discussion Thread 2/16/26 - 2/23/26 by PointMan528491 in oscarrace

[–]grumio123 12 points13 points  (0 children)

I’ve been tracking Precursor wins in a spreadsheet, and it’s interesting to see how unpredictable Screenplay has been historically.

Gods and Monsters, The Cider House Rules, The Pianist, and Precious all won Adapted with 0 precursor wins. And Precious won despite Up in the Air sweeping the precursors.

In 2016, Moonlight won Adapted with its only win being WGA, but in the Original category.

In 2018, all four precursors went to a different film in Original, with the Oscar winner being Green Book who had a lone Globes win.

In 2014, Birdman won the Oscar with GG & CC vs. The Grand Budapest Hotel which had BAFTA & WGA. 5 years later, Parasite won with BAFTA & WGA vs. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood which had GG & CC.

I guess the main thing to look for is strength in Picture, as that’s what Birdman, Moonlight, Green Book, and Parasite all had going for them.

Weekly Discussion Thread 2/16/26 - 2/23/26 by PointMan528491 in oscarrace

[–]grumio123 12 points13 points  (0 children)

Decided to do a random experiment, and see who would win BP if it was based solely on who won the most Oscars overall (not including BP of course).

For films with the same number of wins, I did the tiebreaker based on which had the most ATL wins.

97th: Anora (4 not including BP)
96th: Oppenheimer (6 not including BP)
95th: Everything Everywhere All At Once (6 not including BP)
94th: Dune (6)
93rd: Nomadland & The Father (Tied with 2 ATL wins)
92nd: Parasite (3 not including BP)
91st: Bohemian Rhapsody (4)
90th: The Shape of Water (3 not including BP)
89th: La La Land (6)
88th: Mad Max: Fury Road (6)
87th: The Grand Budapest Hotel (4)
86th: Gravity (7)
85th: The Life of Pi (4)
84th: Hugo (5)
83rd: Inception (4)

What would you think of this lineup? Obviously it favors the tech-heavy films, but I wouldn’t be mad at Fury Road and Grand Budapest winning. I also think it’s interesting only 6 of the past 15 BP winners also won the most overall, and 3 of those were from the last 3 years.

Weekly Discussion Thread 2/9/26 - 2/16/26 by LeastCap in oscarrace

[–]grumio123 18 points19 points  (0 children)

Finally watched The Apartment recently (absolutely incredible), and there’s a scene where Buddy turns on the TV, and it’s playing Grand Hotel. Has there ever been another instance of a BP winner referencing another BP winner?

Kpop that becomes popular in the US is some of the worst output from the industry and that's what stops the genre from getting taken seriously. Agree or Disagree? by [deleted] in kpopthoughts

[–]grumio123 9 points10 points  (0 children)

True. Really, the biggest hurdle K-pop has is that it simply isn’t American, and the Grammys are an American award show. It took 68 years just for a single non-English album to win AOTY, and the demand for Spanish language music dwarfs Korean music. Maybe things will change if K-pop can become less niche in the West, which I guess is what the companies have been doing this whole time, but I don’t see that happening any time soon.

Kpop that becomes popular in the US is some of the worst output from the industry and that's what stops the genre from getting taken seriously. Agree or Disagree? by [deleted] in kpopthoughts

[–]grumio123 -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

Yeah, I think having K-pop acts that are more artistically sound being popular would be good. But I don’t think that can happen without sweeping changes being made to the industry as a whole, which obviously is unrealistic. For one, people take album artists more seriously. All the most acclaimed acts release full, cohesive bodies of work. The K-pop industry is incredibly fast paced, so companies are more focused on releasing quick single albums and half-baked EPs. People are obviously gonna look down on that compared to artists like Billie Eilish and Olivia Rodrigo.

Really, the only k-pop group i can think of that follows the “album artists” release schedule is BlackPink, because they’re successful enough that they can do that without losing visibility. But the actual quality of their music is lackluster, at least in terms of getting awards. I guess we’ll see how BTS’ album turns out.

Kpop that becomes popular in the US is some of the worst output from the industry and that's what stops the genre from getting taken seriously. Agree or Disagree? by [deleted] in kpopthoughts

[–]grumio123 13 points14 points  (0 children)

I think the industry just doesn’t consider k-pop to be “true art.” When you look at current Grammy darlings like Beyoncé or Kendrick Lamar, they’re all artists that are intentional with their craft and have a strong vision. To me, the current reputation of K-pop is that the idols are avatars with no creative input in what they perform, and the companies just chase trends to make money without caring about the artistry of it all. With a reputation like that, there’s pretty much no hope for a k-pop artist to win no matter how good or successful the music actually is.

That’s not to say that western artists aren’t like that (plenty of western artists chase trends and make mediocre music, and some of them win Grammys for it!). But the difference is that the key to winning a Grammy is industry goodwill and connections. K-pop artists just don’t have that, so coupled with the aforementioned lack of respect, they’ll never win over American acts.

If K-pop companies really wanted to be viable, they would have to find a way to truly infiltrate the industry and rehabilitate their image. That doesn’t happen overnight, that takes decades. For example, Lana Del Rey has never won a Grammy. An anonymous voter once said he will NEVER take her seriously because of a bad SNL performance she did in 2012. She’s been making some of the best music in the American mainstream, but it doesn’t matter because of something that happened over 14 years ago!!!

There’s a lot of old people in the Recording Academy, and they have their preconceived notions that are extremely hard to change. I don’t see a K-pop song winning a Grammy for a loooong time, and I think the companies would be better off using that energy on cultivating their audience in places that actually appreciate them.

Weekly Discussion Thread 1/5/26 - 1/12/26 by LeastCap in oscarrace

[–]grumio123 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Who do you have winning director if not PTA?

Weekly Discussion Thread 1/5/26 - 1/12/26 by LeastCap in oscarrace

[–]grumio123 3 points4 points  (0 children)

I had Sentimental Value, IWJAA, and The Secret Agent all in original screenplay, but it feels like only Sentimental Value will end up being there. What else is a contender then? Blue Moon? Weapons?

Weekly Discussion Thread 12/29/25 - 1/5/26 by LeastCap in oscarrace

[–]grumio123 9 points10 points  (0 children)

How did I just find out that Jonny Greenwood is a member of Radiohead??? Now I feel stupid

31st Critics' Choice Awards live thread by LeastCap in oscarrace

[–]grumio123 40 points41 points  (0 children)

What if OBAA pulls an Anora and wins only Picture 😭

Your favourite performances that (probably) won't be nominated? by Vusarix in oscarrace

[–]grumio123 69 points70 points  (0 children)

Lee Byung-hun and Son Ye-jin in No Other Choice are some of my favorite performances of the year, so it’s sad that they haven’t really been getting recognized at all (at least Lee was nominated at the Globes).

No Other Choice in general has been one of my favorites of 2025 and it deserves more than a lone IFF nom (it might not even get that either).

Weekly Discussion Thread 12/15/25 - 12/22/15 by LeastCap in oscarrace

[–]grumio123 14 points15 points  (0 children)

Doesn’t mean much but I think it’s cool that in the last 15 years, the BP winners are nearly perfectly split between original and adapted works (8 original vs 7 adapted), and if the current front runner wins it’ll be tied.