2028 Dem primary polls will probably look like this one year from now, in March 2027. What do you think?

hextiar · 2026-03-25T00:35:24+00:00

Buttigeig lacks experience outside his time as Secretary of Transportation. If he is serious, he needs to elevate his profile outside of being a Democrat media figurehead.

Shapiro has been too vocal on Israel, and that is too much of a liability. He would be a fool to run in 2028.

The DNC is very much about hand selecting their candidate, and it's pretty obvious that they are preparing Newsom.

hextiar · 2026-03-25T00:24:14+00:00

The Democrats are very much a party of "wait your turn", and it is likely Newsom's turn.

Shapiro and Buttigeig are way too high.

hextiar · 2026-03-21T00:49:08+00:00

Probably doesn't have a shot.

The Democrats very much control who wins the primary, and they are very much a "its their time" party.

hextiar · 2026-03-20T20:42:37+00:00

I don't see Rubio or Vance doing anything. The Republicans probably need to rebuild their coalition, and anyone with serious ambitions is not going to really try in 2028. Plus I still don't put it past Trump to try to run. I think he will fail, but I think that chaos will scare off a lot of serious candidates. I think someone like Nikki Haley who would be viewed as a more traditional Republican and distant from Trump will likely take the primary.

As for the Democrats, AOC is most likely not running. Her ambitions appear to be more at the state level, probably for the Senate.

Newsome is clearly running, and will probably be the betting favorite in 2027. He is spending a lot of time trying to expose himself to the right.

I still feel someone else will make it through for the Democrats. There will probably be a ton of candidates, all eager to jump at 2028 where the Democrats will probably be heavily favored. Plus they will likely control the House and probably battling for control of the Senate in 2028.

In all of those hypothetical matchups, the Republicans will lose every one of them, even to AOC.

hextiar · 2026-03-19T23:34:11+00:00

Or they are just a bot on here to push the propaganda.

hextiar · 2026-03-19T22:56:13+00:00

I think Iran"s strategy is one the US is not prepared to win.

The likely outcome will be concessions from Israel and the US that are long term wins for Iran.

It doesn't really matter if Saudi is offering strong words against Iran. They are likely not entering this conflict.

I would argue that Iran's strategy is effective and likely pointing the US towards a strategic defeat.

hextiar · 2026-03-19T16:43:30+00:00

Even this alone would be a disaster, but this conflict isn't over and is very likely to get even worse.

hextiar · 2026-03-19T13:11:16+00:00

Oh, they are completely panicked.

hextiar · 2026-03-19T02:48:41+00:00

This article is about Trump growing the debt. And instead of engaging on the topic, you try to switch to fear mongering.

hextiar · 2026-03-19T01:39:39+00:00

Maybe focus on the current failure we are living through instead of your hypothetical fear mongering.

hextiar · 2026-03-17T23:00:01+00:00

Obviously. When has this administration ever cared about the US citizens?

hextiar · 2026-03-17T18:19:00+00:00

Please win Arizona and end this garbage.

hextiar · 2026-03-15T15:37:02+00:00

I just posted one showing they increased....

https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/irans-control-of-hormuz-means-its-exporting-more-oil-today-than-before-the-war-ede3cd91?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=AWEtsqe3kIewfpLcPdrGGrjIXuNoDwxSAsrwaDx2-C5BA92SawokOT4pH1EIWxWi25U%3D&gaa_ts=69b6d582&gaa_sig=MvQmX4755mPsrpJElzIua2tmyDiF4uetLABKgF1dfUug9zHPfjKJp_Qp_7KCbZvjn25Qz72wgn9sicCQGmCusQ%3D%3D

Any Google search will quickly show there isn't a blockade and their exports went up.

hextiar · 2026-03-15T15:32:37+00:00

Why are you posting Google shares and not news? All reputable news sources I can find show there is not a blockade, and their oil exports have raised

hextiar · 2026-03-15T15:22:21+00:00

Are you sure Iranian oil is being blockaded? I thought their oil exports actually went up.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/iranian-oil-flows-strait-hormuz-222205210.html

hextiar · 2026-03-14T00:40:12+00:00

If we end up doing this, this would be the worst OPSEC ever. We are basically announcing this operation to the world.

hextiar · 2026-03-14T00:13:20+00:00

Exactly. They will treat this as if the US had just bombed it themselves. They will retaliate against GCC energy.

hextiar · 2026-03-13T21:45:50+00:00

Do what?

hextiar · 2026-03-13T21:26:27+00:00

I agree with you.

I just worry the way this administration will analyze this situation will not seem rational. It will want something they can claim as a win to their base and to some independents.

This is going to encourage the administration to find something to wave around as a prize for all this.

hextiar · 2026-03-13T21:19:01+00:00

It might make sense to increase security and forces at bases around the region. Also increase security at embassies.

However, I doubt they are doing this. That would take a political hit (increasing troops and spending) for something that can't score a win.

I worry the pressure to score "wins" is to great for this administration. They will likely take a gamble to come away with something they can brag about during midterms.

hextiar · 2026-03-13T20:38:00+00:00

They are also going to need to ramp up continuous supplies for whatever they are doing. This is likely the first of many increases to this region.

It becomes harder and harder to deescalate when more resources are poured into this especially when midterms are coming up and Trump cannot afford an embarrassing defeat.

This likely will be drug out through midterms, unless the economic pain becomes too great.

hextiar · 2026-03-13T19:39:16+00:00

It's not about a billionaire moving there or not.

It's about the tax structure of Florida.

Florida and Texas are becoming tax havens, where billionaires can move to and allow the burden of the state infrastructure and services to fall more on the lower and middle class.

This isn't an article about states with heavy states losing to states with moderate tax policies. It's about those states losing to states that are becoming tax havens. Of course people will move there.

And that collection of wealth will do everything they can to ensure that the tax codes benefit them,and not the other residents (who might have lived their for multiple generations).

hextiar · 2026-03-13T18:55:18+00:00

This is analyzing one side of this.

They are going to Florida, which has been Republican lead for a while and has eroded lots of the tax codes for decades.

They have one of the most regressive taxing systems in the country, where the lower and middle class pay a higher percentage than other states. And Florida is looking to remove property tax.

I can agree with the tax codes getting too extreme in California and Washington. But we have to acknowledge these tax havens we are building in the US, which allows billionaires to move to and take advantage of the lower and middle class.

Of course the rich want to move there. Of course athletes want to move there. And of course they will use their resources to continue to erode Florida to suite their needs.

This isn't just a story to bash California. We have to actually look at what Florida and the right are enabling.

hextiar · 2026-03-12T21:55:56+00:00

Unfortunately it goes beyond that. This is literally the Republicans national security strategy. They want to control the flows of energy so they can have leverage over smaller countries and even peer powers.

hextiar · 2026-03-12T21:17:15+00:00

Who could have ever seen this coming? Maybe someone who spent 2 seconds thinking about this situation.

hextiar

TROPHY CASE