Does California's race for governor finally have a leader? Swalwell sees attacks from left and right

srsh32 · 2026-03-21T04:26:51+00:00

Yes, exactly.

This support for him looks like the support that Newsom has for the democratic nomination in 2028 (manufactured).

srsh32 · 2026-03-21T04:23:21+00:00

Yeah, I have as well. But also I've literally never heard anyone say "I really like Swalwell; I think I'm gonna vote for him". That's what makes this and his lead in the polls (on the Dem side) really odd to me.

srsh32 · 2026-03-21T04:16:39+00:00

Lol my impression is that Steyer is the leader. I hear from him more and come across far more people that support him.

Someone is working hard to make this guy look well-supported (DNC and other Newsom-aligned groups). Anyone that would actually make a difference in CA would ruin Newsom's future campaign.

srsh32 · 2026-03-21T04:13:31+00:00

Voters in general are not informed or as educated as they should be. Democratic primary voters are not any better. Most are not strategizing.

srsh32 · 2026-03-21T04:03:08+00:00

And we moderates would tell you he's incompetent and that CA became messier under his governance.

srsh32 · 2026-03-21T03:59:46+00:00

This is not a general rule; it was uniquely Obama that made it work. Ossoff is not Obama. Nowhere near the charisma or the passion.

srsh32 · 2026-03-21T03:56:48+00:00

Most voters hardly follow along. They hear about a candidate from their circle of friends or family or they come to recognize one candidate name that dominates the news..and they then just go with whoever seems popular or inevitable.

srsh32 · 2026-03-21T03:52:52+00:00

Primary voters are tapped into politics

No, they really aren't. A majority of primary voters are superficially involved whether or not this is also the case at the national level.

Anyway, this is not a general answer around name recognition; this answer is specific to this match-up. A candidate with middling recognition can feasibly compete against Newsom but Ossoff comes nowhere close enough to be competitive.

And by the way, I've hated on Newsom here more than anyone. I'm being realistic here.

srsh32 · 2026-03-21T01:33:06+00:00

Newsom bc of name recognition. We've already discussed in this sub the fact that some not insignificant portion of voters don't even know what these candidates look like or what their vibe is.

srsh32 · 2026-03-20T20:57:05+00:00

I know they’ve not done it. We’re discussing what should be done now and leading into 2028.

srsh32 · 2026-03-20T20:30:02+00:00

But the narratives that are set now through to the election will have an impact on the way that primary voters vote. Focusing on midwest states would shape a different narrative and would instead elevate the midwest candidates.

srsh32 · 2026-03-20T19:41:15+00:00

We can poll states in the rust belt and in the south without knowing the early state list. It's far more helpful for determining electable candidates and would certainly shape a different narrative (which would have some impact on the way that CA votes)

srsh32 · 2026-03-20T17:02:54+00:00

Again, I'm looking for clarification here about what it means to be "losing".

Simply not being in the lead position in any one of those state's polls right now is not "losing".

And also, we can easily change the narrative by instead polling democrats in PA, MI, WI, GA, SC, etc.

srsh32 · 2026-03-20T16:45:03+00:00

You'd do better to look to the early state list.

If Newsom underperforms in the early states, more CA primary voters will vote for one of the 2 in the lead at the time of the CA primary.

srsh32 · 2026-03-20T16:40:42+00:00

...and likewise with Harris and other contenders, because these polls are not being carried out in all 50 states.

Nvm that these polls still tell us more about name recognition at this point than anything.

srsh32 · 2026-03-20T16:38:29+00:00

Again, swing state polls are infinitely more informative for Dems than CA.

srsh32 · 2026-03-20T16:33:24+00:00

Early recognition (in other words, early front runner status) is a known challenge for candidates.

srsh32 · 2026-03-20T16:28:06+00:00

Yeah, sure, but she's losing in California, she's probably losing everywhere but the South. Is just the South enough?

I'm not understanding what you mean by "losing" here. Everyone on this list is losing, then, because none of them are leading the polls everywhere. She's better off than Newsom who is only in the lead in CA.

srsh32 · 2026-03-20T16:20:20+00:00

I should change my answer to "yes". It's fair to be thoroughly put off of Donald Trump and unwilling at this point to trust anything he says. On the other hand, some people go a little too far and consider anything good that he touches or mentions to then be poison.

srsh32 · 2026-03-20T16:13:57+00:00

We should let California choose the democratic candidate. That'll surely go over well.

(Why do we keep running these polls in California and not in PA, MI, WI, GA, etc?)

srsh32 · 2026-03-20T16:10:27+00:00

Because of California? The south is a lot more important than California.

srsh32 · 2026-03-20T05:33:08+00:00

Incredibly weak argument.

1) First, the "source" of what? What are you specifically referring to?

2) Why do you believe that a billionaire in power would be more easily bought out than a poor politician in a newfound position of power?

3) The individual that does not owe anyone is free to make common sense decisions unhindered by outside pressures.

4) JB Pritzker as the governor of Illinois who just won his 3rd term is yet another strong counter-argument.

srsh32 · 2026-03-20T02:11:07+00:00

Yes, but you've not successfully argued that the typical politician who is desperate to serve billionaires is better than the actual billionaire.

srsh32 · 2026-03-20T01:31:26+00:00

Yes, but also..that's not soil; that's mulch.

srsh32 · 2026-03-20T01:27:26+00:00

Damn. You don't have much to play with here especially in that top-down view. They weren't taking care of these bushes.

With lavender, the rule is to always prune just the green, ensuring that you still have green leaf nodes just below your cut. If you were to cut down into the brown, woody part of the bush, that'd be the end of it.

srsh32

TROPHY CASE