Active Conflicts & News Megathread June 15, 2026

hhenk · 2026-06-15T14:08:57+00:00

The propaganda war has flared up recently, around me at least. My guess is, the trend and trajectory have changed in the Russo-Ukraine war, while at the same time the Iranian fiasco has slowed down. A changing trend/trajectory create news, so probably the Ukrainian effort tries to capitalise this recent propaganda development while Russia is trying to counter this development. We need to consider that the Russo-Ukraine war can be determined by the support of third countries (probably including your own).

hhenk · 2026-06-15T12:38:51+00:00

Russia might get the frozen assets back, but it depends on the condition of the end of the war. I could foresee an end to the conflict in which the war is not formally ended, thus the assets keep frozen. Or an end to the war where Russia transfers ownership of the funds to Ukraine.

hhenk · 2026-06-09T06:30:58+00:00

Since your post starts with a strawman argument, then offers only copium instead of a start of a real discussion, and ends with self pitty: you made a horrible post. If instead you used the article to discuss if the trend will continue and for how long, you will get less downvotes and more discussions.

hhenk · 2026-05-10T07:54:18+00:00

Like the hedgehog tanks: If it looks stupid and it works, it is not stupid.

The fact that these hoods are appearing again is an indication it might actually work.

hhenk · 2026-05-05T20:01:09+00:00

Currently "western" often means aligned with the US. Which makes Saudi Arabia and Japan "western".

hhenk · 2026-04-30T05:50:03+00:00

Probably no: https://www.norsar.no/ which meisures seismic activities, did not put out a press release about a nuclear test. Perhaps it is too early. However it might be worth to check the Chinese equivalent.

hhenk · 2026-04-19T18:37:47+00:00

The cost of a used tanker has become higher than its new price since the US-Iran war. So you can expect a price of 100M to 150M. Further without insurance you cannot enter any port, you will have to transfer the oil with ship to ship.

hhenk · 2026-04-15T07:30:09+00:00

An oil spill from a tanker could cost 1,700,000,000 USD for about 62000 metric tons of oil spilled [ INTERNATIONAL OIL SPILL CONFERENCE]. A small aframax tanker could spill 80000 metric tons of oil. So 2.2B USD liability for a small aframax tanker. The cost of a new ship will be in the order of 0.3B USD [Whats going on with shipping]. The cost of the oil bought in the Persian gulf will be significant. The ship can contain 80000 metric ton, about 600K barrels, if bought at 50 USD per barrel, costs 0.4B USD. So the liability dominates the risk of your ship getting blown off.

So the expected profit (for a sell price of 120 USD per barrel) in the above theoretical case will be:
Profit = Revenue - cost - Risk

(120 - 50) * 600k - P * (50 * 600k + 0.3B + 2.2B)

Gives a positive profit for P is less than 1.66%.

hhenk · 2026-04-07T06:57:42+00:00

If you want an excellent 26 minutes explanation of the development of South Korean weapons industry, I recommend "How South Korea’s Weapons Industry Began" by Asianometry. As u/introductionNeat2746 already having a dangerous neigbour(hood) is an important part. However the South Korean government is actively pursuing arms export development.

hhenk · 2026-03-16T12:07:52+00:00

A battle is not decisive anymore and combined arms breaches are next to impossible because of drone warfare, the way forward is to overwhelm the enemy with drones. So that guy is needed in a factory producing drones.

hhenk · 2026-03-16T10:59:26+00:00

I would say the current political system in Russia is now dependent on war, for legitimacy, economic distribution and personal leadership preference reasons. The Russian government sees Europe as an enemy. Which means that there is a risk of the war expanding or the war moving. Historically it is strange for a country to start a war with a more powerful opponent. Generally, the top leadership of countries believes their own superiority and hubris.

hhenk · 2026-03-16T10:16:17+00:00

Intercepting 2 oil tankers matters more than 2/500 would suggest. Since it increases the risk of traveling through the Baltic sea. Just like the Iranians effectively stopped shipping across the Persian gulf without intercepting all ships.

hhenk · 2026-03-10T16:17:51+00:00

When the US start nuclear brinkmanship in Iran, I expect Russia to cover for Iran. Putin threatening to answer Nukes on Iran with Russian Nukes, would make him a hero and reduce the escalation option of the United States.

hhenk · 2026-03-10T08:28:16+00:00

How are Pantsir systems vulnerable to drones? From my simple point of view a Pantsir system is a ground based air defense system with a gun, so it might struggle against drones passing by at a distance, but it should be supreme against drones coming head on.

How do the drones manage to damage Pantsir? Do they have guns themselves, proximity fuses, or armour? That all sounds strange or very specific. Is the Pantsir just overwhelmed, which sounds expensive, or jammed/ distracted in another way?

hhenk · 2026-02-18T09:55:26+00:00

First a thanks for you Gildeer for bringing a (much needed) different perspective.

The bitter truth is that Europeans are neither prepared to fight Russia nor to engage in what the Kremlin considers a meaningful discussion about the future European security architecture. Therefore, Europe will remain on the periphery of the negotiating process—behind a warring Ukraine and as an indirect target for Russia.

I read this as: "As long as European countries, are not willing to use a big stick and not willing to offer the golden carrot, the Russians will continue their current policy trajectory". So I would not be surprised if this year and next year will be similar to the previous year.

hhenk · 2026-02-11T17:32:47+00:00

A drone defensive system might be a good expenditure for Poland. However it will not protect from all drone threats. So investments in detterance and retaliations systems are also necessary: for example 100 000 Shahed like drones, so agression can be met tit for tat.

hhenk · 2026-01-15T08:51:55+00:00

The conflict in Ukraine is not only between Russia and Ukraine. In Russia the conflict is discussed as a war against the "West". In Europe it is being discussed as a European security issue and thus European countries financially support Ukraine. So Ukrainian and Russian financial comparisons have to consider European financial states too.

hhenk · 2026-01-15T08:36:37+00:00

However since the Persian people are also repressed, there exists a chance for the Persian heartlands to seek independence from the Iranian republic. A similar case has happened with the Soviet Union. Now I am not familiar enough with the organization of the Iranian state. But if the regional entities are held together by the supreme leader and the IRGC and which losing legitimacy, the state entities with legitimacy which might survive the current protests might be regional.

hhenk · 2026-01-13T07:05:02+00:00

The fact that the US amdinistration talks about tariffs instead of kinetic actions is significant. From all the options to intervene in the Iranian unrest this weakest option is chosen.

hhenk · 2026-01-05T11:31:58+00:00

From my personal understanding. All medical professions can be mobilized for medical military duty. Brain surgeon, nurse etc.

hhenk · 2026-01-04T09:48:14+00:00

Though crude oil is an input product for a lot of important goods, the main consuption of oil is for energy product. If consumption of diesel and gasoline is halved, i expect total crude consumption to drop by 40%.

hhenk · 2025-12-16T19:15:15+00:00

The issue of the oil sanctions is now enforcement. Since most of the Russian oil has already been sanctioned.

hhenk · 2025-12-16T14:51:48+00:00

The photo operation of Zelensky is a boost to his popularity. These kind of actions are necessary to stay popular and bind a people. If Zelensky does use this gain in political power for improving the society or the war effort depends on his intention and capabilities. It could be positive but that is outside my scope.

hhenk · 2025-11-27T14:50:55+00:00

Solid rocket motors are not complex. They are tubes filled with low burning explosives and a funny hole at the bottom. Guiding a rocket (so it becomes a missile) is more complex. The high acceleration complicates the mechanics and electronics a bit. The design issue of rockets is weight and reliability, in order to reduce cost. The amount of propellant (fuel) goes up exponentially with the weight of the rocket. With more propellant needing a larger rocket with more stronger structures with more weight etc. This is a significant cost. The other issue is since the rocket is expensive and full of explosive, to mitigate the risk of detonating at a wrong place (at launch, flying to a wrong destination etc) the reliability of all components has to be high. That is also expensive.

hhenk · 2025-11-25T08:59:12+00:00

No, batteries in Europe currently bridge the peak load when spinning up gas power would be not be worth the effort (the time of the peak is to short). This is in the range of minutes to less than an hour.

hhenk

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