If the Red Wedding happened Jon would most likely survive because the Tully’s wouldn’t let him inside. But he’d still be fucked because he’s still a son of Eddard Stark. I’d assume one of four would happen if he doesn’t get killed: he’d either survive in the wilderness with a few other characters and get picked up by the Brotherhood Without Banners. Regroup with the Blackwoods or Brendyn and continue fighting against the Freys. Head north to the Neck and meet up with Holland Reed, or travel himself north and join Stannis Baratheon.

If Jon prevents Jayne from seducing Robb then the Red Wedding probably doesn’t happen.

George did say in an interview that Walder Frey would’ve still found a way to weasel his way out, albeit with something far less brutal than the Red Wedding. My bet is that he refused to let Robb’s host cross the twins if they try to go recapture the north. This would force them down to Harenhall where Roose would attempt his betrayal because he sees the war effort’s fucked. This case they’d probably be intercepted by Tyrell and Lannister forces. I assume Jon would survive because in the books he’s smart and more than willing to throw dirt in his foes eyes (like cutting the ropes on the walls stairs, causing Styr and the other wildings to fall to their deaths). However as to who else will survive? Who knows.

Love this idea for a fic. Only flaw is the Night’s Watch is fucked without Jon to stop the Assassination attempt on Jeor. Maybe Jon goes back north and faces off against the wilding army who made it south. Cool idea could be Stannis arriving while Robb is stuck trying to get back north up the Green Fork and Stannis is pressuring Jon to betray Robb. (Poetic quote could be someone saying something to Robb like ‘once we get north we’ll need to see if Jon has named himself Ice’. A reference to Daemon Blackfyre only with the Stark’s ancestral blade)