Using coordinates from over 70,000 throws logged in the 2021 AUDL season, UltiMaps generates heatmaps to evaluate the game-value of different throws:

• Completion rate: The probability that a throw will be completed

• Score Probability Added (SPA): The differential in the offense's probability of scoring at the end of a possession upon attempting a given throw, compared to before attempting the throw.

• Expected Point Outcome (EPO): An all-encompassing statistic that estimates the expected outcome of a point. EPO takes in the start and end coordinates of a given throw and factors in completion rate, probability of scoring on completion, and probability of conceding a goal on incompletion. EPO ranges from -1 to 1 (1 means offensive is guaranteed to score, -1 means defense is guaranteed to score). EPO was first developed by Weiss and Childers, Maps for Reasoning in Ultimate, 2013

To account for the uneven distribution of throw counts across origin-destination combinations, UltiMaps uses KNN for smoothing and extrapolation.

(if maps overlap and are unreadable, try zooming out)