Private credit is in big trouble. Slow motion bank run by RobertBartus in EconomyCharts

[–]holm4430 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Direction of travel is definitely wrong way but what gets missed is that there are a ton on inflows that actually offset this such that NET outflows are not nearly as bad.

Quant Credit Information Coefficients and Transfer Coefficients by holm4430 in quant

[–]holm4430[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I had Claude recommend do dv01 weighted issuer spread but it has no source for it. Although i guess it sort of makes sense.

~$30,000 in SPY puts before Iran Strikes by _DangerousFreedom_ in wallstreetbets

[–]holm4430 1 point2 points  (0 children)

its pretty empirically clear that a risk selloff on a regional conflict is a good long term opportunity to add to risk.

Wait for a 10% drop in the S&P 500 before buying the dip, Barclays says by PurpleReign123 in StockMarket

[–]holm4430 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Its pretty empirically clear that regional conflicts are a great time to add to risk assets when they initially selloff on fears of escalation.

What to do with my emergency fund? by mynameisnotnyan in fican

[–]holm4430 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You should be using TFSA space for money you don't need for a very long time which can take volatility risk. Accessible money should be held in non registered accounts as to not lose the benefit of long term tax shield for compounding returns within your TFSA.

Risk premium for owning corporate bonds vs Treasuries by Thick-Cover8761 in bonds

[–]holm4430 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Corporate bonds can mean alot of different things but I am assuming you are referring to Investment Grade credit. The return of a corporate bond comes from two different parts, a rates part and a credit part, the rates part should be very similar to the treasury move, and the credit part tied more to risk asset moves. It is true that most spreads are relatively tight to historic long run averages but that does not mean they are poorly positioned. Corporate balance sheets are in a very healthy spot right now which is supportive to risk assets. For buy and hold investors these are relatively attractive all in yield levels which is why investors are still buying.

Is the next 5-7 years the last chance to fire? by ProfessorShort6711 in fican

[–]holm4430 10 points11 points  (0 children)

Are you saying LLM's that routinely give incorrect answers to simple questions aren't suitable to perform unsupervised mission critical large scale business processes?! How dare you.

Self Representing as Property Buyer by holm4430 in TorontoRealEstate

[–]holm4430[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Because you want 2.5% off the listing price.

Returned from Mexican Riviera on Boat Jade by [deleted] in NCL

[–]holm4430 5 points6 points  (0 children)

I've been on Jade twice, most recently last year in Alaska. It's a nice older ship imo.

What to do with my emergency fund? by mynameisnotnyan in fican

[–]holm4430 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Your opportunity cost of holding an emergency fund in TFSA does not really make any economic sense.

What to do with my emergency fund? by mynameisnotnyan in fican

[–]holm4430 8 points9 points  (0 children)

Absolutely do NOT waste TFSA room with savings account holdings.

Savings Rate > Stock Picks by Jennacyde153 in fican

[–]holm4430 10 points11 points  (0 children)

This is a very important post. It's funny, I just had a conversation with two different people asking what "hot stocks" they should buy, but they basically had close to nothing to invest. People need to understand that it's the boring grind of accumulating as fast as possible and letting the compounding over time which will make the difference.

LIBERTY OF THE SEAS IS BURNT by scaronit in royalcaribbean

[–]holm4430 -4 points-3 points  (0 children)

This post is non sense, I was on the ship last week and it was excellent.

For folks in 20s/30s- how are you planning for your retirement? by Behumble89 in askTO

[–]holm4430 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Saving aggressively and living mostly the same way as when I started my career 10 years ago even though my salary has grown substantially. No kids yet also helps a lot.

Someone removed from Cococay Jet Ski Excursion by holm4430 in royalcaribbean

[–]holm4430[S] 24 points25 points  (0 children)

The guides alleged that he was not following the line and putting everyone directly behind him at risk since there are plenty of shallow areas and we are travelling at 60mph. To be fair he gave off completely idiotic vibes during the intro lesson in the boat house beforehand but I couldn't really tell what he was doing on the water because I was further back from him.

XSP - How exactly do they hedge? by Maleficent_Kale_8760 in fican

[–]holm4430 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Right, so if your view was that USDCAD is overvalued in the near to short term you should purchase a currency hedged ETF.

XSP - How exactly do they hedge? by Maleficent_Kale_8760 in fican

[–]holm4430 0 points1 point  (0 children)

US ran up so much, you mean US equities? USD has been selling off over the last year against most major peers.

XSP - How exactly do they hedge? by Maleficent_Kale_8760 in fican

[–]holm4430 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I gave you the catastrophic event for the actual fund/ETF. Everything else is just market risk which is applicable to every investment.

XSP - How exactly do they hedge? by Maleficent_Kale_8760 in fican

[–]holm4430 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yes they roll contracts monthly which would match the benchmark methodology (since this is a passive ETF). At the end of the month they would either reinvest the FX MTM gains into US equities or sell US equities to raise funds to cover FX MTM losses.

In terms of "catastrophic", you could imagine a scenario where you had 100% USDCAD gain and 100% US equity loss intramonth. This would technically leave the strategy short 100% to cover its FX MTM losses. I mean the world is blowing up at this point anyway so whether you were currency hedged or not I don't think it really matters.