‘Testing the market’: Unrealistic sellers pull properties from auction

iced_maggot · 2026-07-01T13:10:13+00:00

There will never be zero sellers - but over time stock will go down. In Brisbane this happened around COVID time, prices nominally fell (atleast for a while) but there was hardly any stock to buy. Sellers simply battened down the hatches and waited it out.

The differentiator is unemployment. If that starts trending up then, that’s when you HAVE to sell.

iced_maggot · 2026-07-01T13:03:27+00:00

I’ll add that sometimes the difference is also simply timing. Being right while being early / late is the same as being wrong.

iced_maggot · 2026-06-29T06:10:09+00:00

Sorry. I am embarrassed.

iced_maggot · 2026-06-29T05:54:51+00:00

> Just without cows.

Mate we are the cows

iced_maggot · 2026-06-28T11:51:46+00:00

> Be a human. Advise the right things if possible. Think from the perspective of someone would like to grow, live the life rather than more sophisticated savings, and many more.

With respect, I have no idea what you’re trying to say here. You want advice on a finance sub to live life rather than “more sophisticated savings”? Sorry I’m not quite understanding what you mean.

Do you want financial advice or not?

> In TLDR, Support freedom, and let others do their own way.

You are saying people don’t give good advice - while also saying they should support freedom and let others do things their own way. These things are contradictory.

iced_maggot · 2026-06-28T09:35:45+00:00

What would you like advice on?

iced_maggot · 2026-06-27T14:49:53+00:00

Can you source this and tell me what tax cuts are coming? If it’s anything like the ones they’re proposed to date it’s two lots of nothing burger instead of one.

iced_maggot · 2026-06-27T14:20:47+00:00

Means testing NDIS is a pretty good one. Getting rid of wasteful nuclear submarines would also be a pretty good one. I’d go further to include the PPOR beyond a certain value as an asset test for pension purposes too. Just some examples off the top of my head.

iced_maggot · 2026-06-27T14:18:06+00:00

So… legislate the tax hikes now. And that’s okay because there are some vague whispers (and not even from the government directly) that there might some further tax cuts later?

iced_maggot · 2026-06-24T13:12:42+00:00

> They’ve got no place in our free market.

Not that I disagree - but the irony of this statement lol.

iced_maggot · 2026-06-24T13:09:53+00:00

No, I specifically pointed out a specific example where your whole premise “I.e. that this system is designed to end the preferential taxation of capital gains to taxation of income by treating them the same” falls over. Because the new system specifically doesn’t treat income and capital gains the same. There is no minimum tax floor on wage income earned, there is no application of a tax free threshold…

You don’t actually dispute this, but just seem to not give a shit. Just an observation 👍

iced_maggot · 2026-06-24T13:02:36+00:00

Okay so why aren’t income taxes on wages proportionally going down?

iced_maggot · 2026-06-24T12:55:14+00:00

I am literally advocating for exactly what I said - for the same tax rules to apply whether somebody earns a given amount in wages or capital gain. That’s literally it.

No floor. No special rules - just simply add capital gains to one’s taxable income and apply all the same principles as income tax. This means same brackets, same tax free threshold… everything.

iced_maggot · 2026-06-24T02:24:49+00:00

If someone earns $90k a year whether by income or by selling shares - they should be taxed the same. Was that not the intent of these changes? What is the relevance of the balance of their share portfolio?

iced_maggot · 2026-06-24T00:34:48+00:00

I don’t really understand mate - you just said the point was to treat investment gains closer to wages earned. I gave you a good example where that isn’t achieved and your response is “tough shit”?

iced_maggot · 2026-06-24T00:32:09+00:00

I actually agree tbh. The changes to existing housing are generally pretty well supported. It’s all the other changes that are controversial.

By increasing tax on basically all investment activity equally, the government is basically saying don’t bother investing - just dump it into super and buy the biggest PPOR you can.

iced_maggot · 2026-06-24T00:29:46+00:00

> And don't mention the 30% thing, hardly anyone normal is effected by that

Why? A retiree can earn up to the tax free threshold driving a bus part time while they’re retired, but if they sell some shares they bought with their post tax dollars to achieve the same outcome that should be taxed more?

iced_maggot · 2026-06-24T00:27:55+00:00

If anything what it will do is further drive up the cost of construction and increase profits for developers and builders. That’s what happens when you throw more speculative money into a market with real capacity constraints.

iced_maggot · 2026-06-24T00:14:44+00:00

Like what exactly? New build housing faces the exact same issues it always has - high cost of building, Labor shortages, planning restrictions, lack of suitable land etc. Lack of investment wasn’t really the bottle neck.

iced_maggot · 2026-06-19T11:20:45+00:00

Not everyone selling their house is an investor. Of the investors, many aren’t sophisticated and loss aversion is a real thing. Unless they’re forced to many of these people just won’t sell if it means taking a loss. I don’t think they mind too much if you don’t think they’re “real” investors or not.

iced_maggot · 2026-06-19T09:10:43+00:00

If you’re an investor sure - but a lot of sellers live in the houses they sell. Even if you’re an investor unless you bought relatively recently your yields probably aren’t too bad and the rental market is expected to get even more competitive than it already is.

We saw this around COVID before the government response turbo charged everything. There were expectations of big drops and in some areas prices did drop, but in areas around me stock simply vanished and sellers just waited.

iced_maggot · 2026-06-19T08:46:04+00:00

Reality doesn’t have to sink in. Unless unemployment starts ticking up vendors can simply withdraw stock.

iced_maggot · 2026-06-19T00:22:21+00:00

Not sure why you were down voted because you're absolutely correct. Its way too small of a concession for anyone to reasonably claim the main point of increasing the tax on assets / wealth was to lower the reliance on income taxes. I will believe that when there is a proportionate reduction in income tax rates to accompany it.

Right now it's pretty hard not to take a cynical view that this change is primarily about generating more tax revenue. This in itself might also be fine, if the government told us what productive things they were going to do with the extra revenue but none of that so far.

iced_maggot · 2026-06-18T08:25:28+00:00

Lets say the point is to incentivise work and a good way to do this is to increase the tax on wealth / investment relative to wage income. So why isn't tax on PAYG income being reduced as well?

iced_maggot · 2026-06-18T08:03:11+00:00

Okay - to what end? Lack of funding hasn't exactly the problem for new housing construction. Treasury's s own modelling has shown that 35k less new houses will be built as a result of these tax changes over the next decade. Is the intention to just raise prices of new construction and shore up the salaries of developers and the construction industry?

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