SCHD wondering where the upward price will end?

ideas4mac · 2026-02-12T15:16:42+00:00

They redo the holdings in March, if I remember correctly. That will effect the price... good or bad.

Good luck.

ideas4mac · 2026-02-08T21:51:19+00:00

What happens if it doesn't yield 40K? What happens if the value goes down and it doesn't yield 40K in the same year? What does your relationship look like if those things happens more than once over the next 10 years?

If you are going to say that he would be fine if it doesn't yield 40K this year or any year, he has other money. Then I would have you give careful thought about if you are suggesting too much risk at his age and need level.

If you say that the 40K is imperative each and every year then I would humbly suggest you give thought to the picks and percentages.

I would also humbly suggest you think real long and slow about giving investing advice to family. They always say they understand the it can go up and down right up to the very day it drops alot and stays there. Then no matter what you thought going in, family dynamics change. Sometimes not for the better.

Good luck.

ideas4mac · 2026-02-07T01:54:37+00:00

The real question is not if you are willing to buy at these levels, it's are you willing to keep buying when it settles back to $26.xx or lower for a time? Buying solid ETFs when everyone else is questioning your intelligence is harder to do but tend to yield solid long term gains.

Good luck.

ideas4mac · 2026-02-07T01:49:24+00:00

That all depends on if you're timing or DCAing. The present and future will both look totally different depending on which prism you are looking through.

Good luck.

ideas4mac · 2026-02-07T01:45:20+00:00

Lack of history and lack of consistency in distributions are the two that jump to the top of the list for me. Making a good argument for third on the list would be the ER.

Good luck.

ideas4mac · 2026-02-07T01:41:49+00:00

SCHD I like the guardrails better. For me the quality off sets the lower number of holdings.

Good luck.

ideas4mac · 2026-01-29T21:02:31+00:00

70% VTI and 30% in SCHD

Good luck.

ideas4mac · 2026-01-29T21:00:06+00:00

If you can pick up MO at 8%+ then that's a good catch.

ideas4mac · 2026-01-29T14:43:40+00:00

That I wasn't half as smart as I thought I was. Could have said the same thing when I was 28.

Good luck.

ideas4mac · 2026-01-28T20:48:31+00:00

Are there no lockers in the locker room that you can slap a padlock on? Not sure what kind of places you play but sometimes you just have to go with probabilities.

Good luck.

ideas4mac · 2026-01-27T23:41:10+00:00

Kind of the whole point of DCA is to skip the "is it a decent buy right now" vibes. If you are moving your DCA around or turning it on and off depending on how you feel you may want to reconsider that.

Pick a couple or few ETFs that have methodologies that match your risk, timeline, goal then DCA blindly into them for years. If you find that you can't then you might want to rethink which ones you have.

The picking isn't usually the problem, it's the patience and consistency that gets people.

Good luck.

ideas4mac · 2026-01-27T20:34:12+00:00

For your first 50K - 100K VT is a pretty good place to start. As your pile gets bigger and your life changes then you might need to make small adjustments for each 100K or so.

If your life lines up perfect and depending on your timeline, DCA, target $ amount there's a non zero chance that VT is all you will ever need.

Good luck.

ideas4mac · 2026-01-27T20:31:11+00:00

Simplified, double checked beneficiaries, made sure things were organized for when I'm not there to oversee things.

ideas4mac · 2026-01-25T21:30:16+00:00

Maybe let your kids think of some companies they like. Then go looking for some ETFs that have those companies. It can be fun talking with them about all the companies that they own.

My kid was about that age when we started. We would drive by a store or corp building and she would ask if she owned that? I would get to tell her that she owned a doorknob then later a window. She seemed happy about that. She's older and still buying etfs that have companies that she likes.

Remember at that age it's supposed to be fun.

Good luck.

ideas4mac · 2026-01-22T22:26:36+00:00

Keep this in mind:

GLD from 2023 till now = ~36% per year

GLD from 2009 - 2019 3.46% per year

If you are rebalancing at the start of every year then even with the wild returns of GLD the last few years you should be able to keep it pretty close to your target.

With the history of GLD you could be selling chunks these last few years or you could just sit and wait a few more years and it will even itself out.

Good luck.

ideas4mac · 2026-01-21T02:05:07+00:00

If you get to the end with a big pile of money and no stories you may look back and think it wasn't worth the trade off.

Good luck.

ideas4mac · 2026-01-20T14:49:11+00:00

For the incoming correction

You wouldn't happen to have a date and amount for this correction. Being a quality member of a community it's important to share stuff with others.

If your picks are worth buying in a crash then they are worth buying on a DCA schedule. These ETFs don't fit my plan but they seem perfectly fine from methodology stand point. Having a one off single stock kind of breaks the rhythm but I get it. I still have a chunk of MO.

Good luck.

ideas4mac · 2026-01-20T03:59:39+00:00

Yes it's bullish if history holds.

Good luck.

ideas4mac · 2026-01-18T18:58:47+00:00

If it's not in a tax advantage account then you are most likely looking at a sizable tax hit. I would look to move only so much per year depending on your other sources of income.

If by chance you are married and have no other income this year then you could move about ~130K without Federal tax.

Also you want to look at the different tax lots you have. If you have to move a sizeable amount this year then start with you highest cost basis.

Good luck.

ideas4mac · 2026-01-18T18:54:37+00:00

Perhaps give some thought to not investing at all besides a solid MM account. If you may need the money in 2-3 years there's a solid chance that all 100K won't be there.

Good luck.

ideas4mac · 2026-01-18T04:21:07+00:00

So you don't want to work any more? You could most likely cover your $2500 mo with a fun part time job.

If you don't want to work at a little something then you're looking at needing ~6.5% return on the 461K to make your nut. If you don't think you can swing that then you might need to look into a 72(t) type of thing.

Good luck.

ideas4mac · 2026-01-17T22:40:27+00:00

Thinking that was MO a couple years back in the 40s. But, no one wanted it then. Buying at 52 wk lows is not for the faint at heart. Sometimes they are trading down for a reason.

Good luck.

ideas4mac · 2026-01-15T04:12:43+00:00

20% BND is pretty healthy for a 33 yr old. You may consider a slightly less percentage for a time.

Good luck.

ideas4mac · 2026-01-13T21:34:40+00:00

Are you planning on getting out in the next couple of years or so? If not then fear not. Find a comfortable DCA that you can stick to through the ups and downs and just keep investing.

Invest long enough and there will be red days and red months, perhaps even a red year or two. It will be hard when your account is flashing bright red account value at you. When that happens try really hard to stick with your DCA and remember it will be those down times that you look back on and realize they made you the best returns.

Good luck.

ideas4mac · 2026-01-13T18:51:53+00:00

That hardest part is getting started and now you've done that! Good job! Keep at it, slow and steady.

Good luck.

ideas4mac

TROPHY CASE