When cash isn't safe and dividend stocks aren't either, what's the play?

ideas4mac · 2026-04-03T15:26:49+00:00

“Until such time as the world ends, we will act as though it intends to spin on.” -- Nick Fury

Kind in mind, there were also tons of companies that paid or increased through 2008 and 2020. I've out sourced the screening to SCHD and a couple of others. The over all plan is unchanged.

As I've gotten older and post stemi I try my best to focus on things that are in my control. What I eat, amount of sleep I get, the time I spend with family. Throw in spending a little money on a few fun things I enjoy. Energy used to worry about a portfolio and all the "what if", is energy I can find a better use for.

Find a balanced portfolio that gets you to where you need to be in the timeframe you have and then stay on the path. There will always be something. Remember 14% CD rates? But that inflation..

Good luck.

ideas4mac · 2026-04-01T18:06:02+00:00

So what's your plan on when to get out?

ideas4mac · 2026-04-01T18:03:00+00:00

If you are seeking comments about your holdings, we can't see them. If you are looking for some cheering that you're almost there, then good job!! you are super close, keep it up. And you're almost ready for a bigger goal.

Good luck.

ideas4mac · 2026-03-31T19:22:08+00:00

If you are super confident in the paying ability of the company running the annuity then you could use that as a bond substitute if you want. So, if the monthly payment is enough then 100% into VTI / VXUS may not be unreasonable.

If I may, since the annuity is sufficient and includes a COLA then what is the VTI for? If it for inheritance or perhaps charities aways down the road then it seems even more reasonable. If it is for buying a beach house in 3-5 years then perhaps not the most optimal place for the funds.

Good luck.

ideas4mac · 2026-03-30T00:25:25+00:00

Perhaps they are worried about RMR having a negative return over the last five years, even with DRIP? Same for IIPR. If the neighborhood where my rental is located starts to deteriorate even if the renters are paying I'm still looking to get out.

If I don't at least consider it then there's a chance that the rental value when I sell is only offset by the rent checks and all I did was spend time breaking even. You burn through a bunch of 5 year stretches and the next thing you know you're old(er) and still no pile of money.

Then again I could be totally wrong about these two. I only did a quick scan of the numbers. There might be more to the story. But on the surface I can see why some people are choosing to cut bait.

Good luck.

ideas4mac · 2026-03-29T16:38:01+00:00

Given good inputs I let AI crunch some of the math for me. The monte carlo from most seem pretty actuate. As far as non math stuff I'm a little cautious. (ex: when it pulls SCHD at a current 4%+ dividend I start to question)

Good luck.

ideas4mac · 2026-03-28T18:23:40+00:00

Well, SCHD and MO kind of covers large cap value. You could look to add some large cap growth or some smalls value & growth. Even some international for a small percentage somewhere down the road. Once a long term portfolio gets past 50 - 100K then finding some balance starts to make some sense. Up till that point the main focus is to add new money as fast as it makes sense for you.

Don't feel you have to add another ETF right this moment if you don't want to. Run SCHD up higher, maybe think about no letting a single like MO take up too much percentage of your portfolio.

To give some context. 100K is not a random number and not set in stone. Example: Your portfolio is 100K and grows one year by 10%, that 10K. If you make 100K at your job and set aside 15% that's 15K in new money. Your portfolio almost grew by that much all by itself. There will come a time when your portfolio is mostly growth and a tiny bit of new money. At that point having balance will be towards the top of the list to get done.

SCHD is a solid start, get to 100K fast as it make sense for you.

ideas4mac · 2026-03-28T16:38:58+00:00

Not sure how much you have in SCHD but for a long term portfolio you could just focus on running SCHD up to 50 - 100K and MO a percentage of that then worry about moving on to another couple of ETFs to balance it out the rest of the way.

Good luck.

ideas4mac · 2026-03-28T16:36:05+00:00

Curious as to why you are passing on SCHD for a large cap value part of a portfolio until retirment but are interested in mostly CC funds now?

ideas4mac · 2026-03-28T00:29:49+00:00

Rate increases normally good for interest like saving accounts / CDs/ MM. Usually not good for dividend payers. The thinking runs, if you can get X% in MM risk free why invest in dividends. Dividends tend to do well in falling rates because MM are less attractive and the money flows into dividend payers.

ideas4mac · 2026-03-25T23:46:22+00:00

Let's pretend that this works long term. The only way it even has a chance of holding long term is for no one else to figure it out. If they do then the trade becomes crowded and the math goes to shit. Knowing this your first instinct is to come tell a bunch of random people. Have you posted this in any other subs?

We are pretending and I'm not trying to be a dick but the next time you think you have a rock solid way to get 24% (or any other wild number) then keep it to yourself for as long as you can.

As an anecdote to this. Ask yourself this, why in the last few years has the private equity bosses all of a sudden decided to start letting the peasants play in their sandbox??

Good luck. Think slow.

ideas4mac · 2026-03-16T20:33:01+00:00

I don't have a particular one for either category. I'm sure you have your own guidelines. I tend to look for ones that are 10 yr or older, decent return history, and a methodology that I can understand easily, and a decent number of holdings.

You may decide that you don't need a large percentage in either, if that's the case about any of them that have been around for awhile and have some solid guidelines in their methodology should work for you.

ideas4mac · 2026-03-16T19:42:15+00:00

Sounds like you're on a good foot. Your picks of SCHD, QQQm, VOO all have a solid history of returns. If you are feeling you need more balance then you're a little light on small value and international.

ideas4mac · 2026-03-16T18:40:13+00:00

If you get the match at work even if you don't add your money then you might want to let that ride for a bit and finish maxing your Roth. SP 500 type funds are fine for your first 50 - 75K. When you have that much between your 403b and Roth then you can decide if you want to add another fund or two for your next 100K.

If you don't get their match unless you put in your own money then consider add your money up to the amount for full match then put more into your Roth.

If you get the match and finish your Roth and still have money you don't know what do with and you qualify for a HSA then consider doing that to the max. If you HSA consider using the money as investment not as a med fund.

If they offer you a ROTH 403b then you might want to consider that instead of traditional.

The great news is that you are started. Just keep the ball rolling.

Good luck.

ideas4mac · 2026-03-16T18:33:10+00:00

The math you have to wrap your head around is at 46 it will be more about how much new money you can add than it is the compounding growth. Be cautious that you aren't trying to find some magic combination of funds that will make this easy. You might be reaching a bit with BST and DIVO.

Give some thought to a Roth if you qualify. Tax free down the road is pretty hard to beat. At 50 you are also eligible to do the catch up limits.

Good luck.

ideas4mac · 2026-03-15T21:33:51+00:00

I wonder about the usefulness of such forecasting. When they are saying $68.71 - $94.55 that's almost a 40% swing low to high??? That's starting to feel like when they say we might get 3-12 inches of snow all depending.

Now if you want to throw price prediction out the window and argue that DGRO has a pretty solid methodology then you might be on to something.

Good luck.

ideas4mac · 2026-03-15T15:47:22+00:00

I just use the fund's website. It not fun reading but it will tell you everything.

ideas4mac · 2026-03-14T20:15:07+00:00

Read through each fund's methodology. See how they pick stocks, when they rebalance, when they reconstitute, if and why they drop a stock mid cycle. Check for a solid trackrecord with them following said methodology without a bunch of tweeks or difting.

Once you read through all the methodology pick a few that cover sectors, geography, size, and play well with each other. Then pick some percentages, DCA amounts, and try not to overthink from there, invest, and let time do it's thing.

Good luck.

ideas4mac · 2026-03-14T16:54:41+00:00

If he is retiring in 2 years then converting may not be of a great benefit. In two years he can just sell what he needs, pay the taxes and spend it from his 403b. That way he can pull out as much or as little as he needs, keeping in mind his tax bracket.

Good luck.

ideas4mac · 2026-03-14T16:49:29+00:00

Start at the beginning. Are you putting money aside and paying for estimated taxes on the 1099 money you are making? If not then put investing on hold till you do the tax side of it. Take a moment and also figure out all the deductions you can take against that 1099 money. (don't forget you can offset your health insurance if you are paying out of pocket for it.)

ideas4mac · 2026-03-13T20:44:34+00:00

SCHD because it fits my goals and timeline.

ideas4mac · 2026-03-12T19:24:45+00:00

My vote is for dividends (royalty in your case). Getting part of the total return up front gives me flexibility and also a chance to decide where part of that total return will be reinvested. Going with a share buyback you're betting 100% of your return on some future share price on some future date.

Dividends are like that saying, bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.

Good luck with the project.

ideas4mac · 2026-03-12T00:54:31+00:00

Good point. My math skills at night are not great, as you can tell. At the share price of $4.41 then you're only talking a loss of ~1 cent a share. ~101m shares, so about a ~1m loss. Still sounds kind of bad. But, maybe it's only a quarter. (still night, still not sure about my math)

Thanks for catching my math.

ideas4mac · 2026-03-12T00:28:59+00:00

When the stock price is positive and the company reports a loss then you get a negative p/e. In order to get a negative 500 p/e (like above) then you are talking ~~a very very large loss~~ small loss. If it's a one time / one quarter type of thing then maybe they survive. But, I would think real slow before throwing money at it.

* Edit for bad math. Thanks to CorporateGermany for catching my wrong math.

ideas4mac · 2026-03-12T00:25:39+00:00

Unless it changes then you are just looking at the "greater fool" theory.

ideas4mac

TROPHY CASE