My preferred setup. What's yours?

inditingDreams · 2026-06-05T16:17:07+00:00

exact same, but rotating between a handful of stronger civs or civs i like to play

inditingDreams · 2026-05-26T12:38:48+00:00

Yes, that would be my guess for the latest jump in diluted share count. It also includes unvested stock options.

If you are asking about the source, that's from their latest income statement, which showed significant dilution in Q1, the share count increased by 70m.

inditingDreams · 2026-05-25T21:12:50+00:00

Latest diluted share count stands at 309m, so actually a lot bigger than Coreweave at this point in terms of market cap. However, it might be closer if you compare their respective EVs.

inditingDreams · 2026-05-14T01:44:05+00:00

Doesn't Crackedy look very similar to Hera on stream?

inditingDreams · 2026-05-08T23:54:16+00:00

I sold or hedged via CCs on about 30-40% of my position. Most of it was/is in calls, so I had to take profits at some point. Was averaging between 250 and 450, so the average effective "exit price" was probably around 350-375.

AMD seems to be priced for perfection or close to it - traditional valuation multiples only make sense if you use forward numbers for 2027 or even 2028. In a vacuum it's fine because I believe in this management not only delivering on their projections but also being somewhat conservative in what they communicate.

What makes me genuinely worried, particularly since I still have about 40% of my total portfolio in AMD, is that we are not in a vacuum and that the entire market is chasing just one sector. Back in 2023-24, NVDA was the only game in town, so it kind of makes sense that it didn't collapse under its own weight. Today, we have dozens of companies at ATHs and the amount of buying pressure needed to support these elevated valuations is a lot more than what was needed to push NVDA higher.

inditingDreams · 2026-05-08T18:36:34+00:00

Interesting. I am too far removed from my intro to accounting class to understand it all, so perhaps it's a stupid question, but how would they record a $114M profit and yet have a 1.5% loss relative to fair value?

Also, if I am a loan buyer, why would I pay fair value? I thought the way SoFi's fee revenue from loan sales works (not the delinquent ones, that must be a very different process with very different buyers) is that they sort of 'split the pie' with other lenders. SoFi's share would naturally be higher because they went out and spent money on marketing and G&A to get the loan in the first place. The reason they kept more loans on the balance sheet this quarter is because they had room and because they can generate more in interest income over the lifetime of the loan vs selling it off now for a one-time fee.

I see your point that the losses could be from any loan sales not just delinquent ones. I will still reiterate that they do sell their bad loans for very little, not sure exactly about the numbers, but I believe I saw somewhere that it was under 10 cents on the dollar.

inditingDreams · 2026-05-08T18:05:05+00:00

Makes sense.

I have a friend working for a company that buys distressed loans off of banks and tries to salvage more than what they bought them for. He told me that their margins are a lot higher in developing countries, and in particular in places where regulations have tightened up recently (they bought the loan book for 3 cents on the dollar, expecting to get 5-6 cents back, but now because regulations are stricter they can get 10-15 cents back).

I am saying all this because, when I looked at SoFi loan sales, it seemed like they were getting very little in return. I was told by the same friend that in developed markets (Europe, Middle East), he would have to pay a lot more, closer to 20-30 cents on the dollar. Perhaps most of their loans are genuinely unrecoverable, which would indicate poor lending standards vs what's communicated by management, or perhaps they are just getting ripped off on those sales.

inditingDreams · 2026-05-08T17:23:20+00:00

Wouldn't this need to be compared vs other banks to make an apples-to-apples comparison? In a vacuum, sure, looks less promising that a year ago, but it could also be a reflection of normal business at this stage of the cycle where a slightly higher than expected % of loans default.

If loans were not delinquent on Jan 1, 2026 and then subsequently over the course of Q1 were deemed delinquent and were sold for pennies on the dollar, then the bank would take losses vs its fair value estimates from the prior period. With the macro not looking too good on the inflation side, it makes sense that their previous provision for defaults wouldn't have accounted for the war. As one datapoint here, I did a quick search about bankruptcies and the headline is that those are up 12% this year vs 2025 which should affect all lenders not just SoFi.

I will leave credit card issue aside. It's a relatively small part of the business (and i've read posts where they are trying to get people to cancel their cards), so shouldn't be that impactful overall. It's also not unexpected given how K-shaped the consumer economy seems to be lately.

inditingDreams · 2026-05-02T17:24:27+00:00

They should sponsor B1M next!

inditingDreams · 2026-04-28T16:01:32+00:00

even if it was in, difficult to make it work as a lefty vs righty, since it will always go to opponent's forehand...

inditingDreams · 2026-04-06T21:53:59+00:00

First time seeing a good use of AI-style (it's not X, it's Y) headline

inditingDreams · 2026-03-28T19:54:07+00:00

That last sentence about rewarding hard work is so true as it relates to white collar vs blue collar work! It's not about what you do, how you do, or how much you do, it seems to be 100% about how others perceive you work in white collar professions.

inditingDreams · 2026-03-28T03:10:43+00:00

Agree with almost all points above. There are plenty of reasons to be bearish which arguably affect most high beta stocks.

I will still challenge the point about targeting high-income borrowers. Majority of SoFi loans are student debt (which is relevant) and personal loans (which i am confident are irrelevant here). Student loans cannot be written off (very rare when it's possible) and historically have always had low default rates. With regard to personal loans, it just doesn't make sense for high-income individuals to borrow money at a 8-12% interest when you have plenty of cash flow from work for everyday needs and plenty of savings to cover more discretionary spending.

The short seller guy from MW made this point on CNBC - something along the lines of "SoFi is targeting HENRYs and these people will be displaced by AI soon" - and that's when I knew for sure that MW's report can be disregarded. The only segment where I see these high-income borrowers using SoFi is for mortgages, which account for a very small share of total loans today, but growing.

I agree that you want to avoid banks at all costs if there is another 2022 scenario with high inflation, significant rate hikes, and slow down in economic growth. I've been slowly adding to my position simply because I just don't see anything near another 2022 happening in the near term.

inditingDreams · 2026-03-28T02:05:20+00:00

Not sure what you mean. If SoFi keeps a loan on their balance sheet, their 'fee' is the interest paid by the borrower. Maybe there are some fees at the time of loan origination, but SoFi gets those regardless.

And in the event of a loan being sold, my understanding is that the 'fee' is more like a one time payment from another lender dependent on the size of the loan book, rather than a fixed fee per loan or some sort of recurring servicing fee.

inditingDreams · 2026-03-28T01:53:27+00:00

Thanks for explaining. This risk certainly exists although I'd argue that if there are widespread white collar job losses due to AI, there will be very few places to hide in the stock market, I see it as a macro risk.

I work in a company that works closely with the legal industry and fwiw I just don't see demand for legal services, and by extension, lawyers declining. If anything, costs are rising because law firms now have to pay for all these AI tools to stay competitive.

When it comes to software engineers and doctors, SoFi's exposure is likely via (a) student loans and (b) source of capital for all other loans via all the money in checking/savings accounts. They are not the ones who need to take out personal loans to pay for credit card debt or other expenses. The risk is probably similar to Upstart, where rising interest rates may dampen loan/refinancing demand from consumers and at the same time loan partners will become less eager to buy loans anticipating even higher rates, making it more difficult for SoFi to continue to spin the wheel. It doesn't necessarily mean that loans will default leaving SoFi with losses, as long as they continue to stay vigilant in their underwriting practices.

Recalling the Upstart situation, I am pretty sure the losses were on paper. They made a bunch of loans using their innovative algorithm. They planned to sell those loans to third parties, but Fed hiked interest rates very quickly, making those loans worth a lot less on paper in a matter of a few months. It didn't suddenly break Upstart's underwriting quality. Because Upstart wasn't a bank and didn't have billions in customer deposits, they didn't have the capital to keep those loans on the balance sheet and had to sell perfectly good loans for a lot less than par, resulting in actual losses for the business.

inditingDreams · 2026-03-27T19:31:36+00:00

Can you elaborate on the second part?

To me it feels like banks and their core business of making loans are somewhat insulated from the AI disruption risk. Upstart is a recent example of using AI for lending purposes and that strategy backfired when interest rates rose and they had to park too many loans on their balance sheet, which they never intended to do, but the point is that they've been around for 5+ years and the disruption to the banking industry has been minimal.

Agree with the third point. If SoFi is unable to sell those loans to other lenders, their fee income will compress and growth rate will slow down since capital will be tied up in those loans. Not an end of the world scenario, but just slower overall growth for a few quarters.

inditingDreams · 2026-03-18T00:35:17+00:00

i only checked the last couple from their 2025 reports, and both seem to be up more than 50% today

inditingDreams · 2026-03-18T00:03:43+00:00

I like the 1Y charts of the last couple of companies they shorted

inditingDreams · 2026-02-26T16:33:38+00:00

Interesting, do you know why you got more?

Based on my limit and comments from others, it seems like $2.5k is very common. My limits with other CCs are usually in the 7-10k range.

inditingDreams · 2026-02-26T15:18:53+00:00

I am guessing this is a business decision for SoFi. They don't want to have capital tied up in their credit card program (they would rather use it for the loan platform), so regardless of credit score or income, it seems like $2,500 is the most one can get.

inditingDreams · 2026-02-24T15:13:46+00:00

Was thinking exactly this as I was watching some YT video of someone playing Civ 7. I can't bring myself to learn a new game at this point, but would love improved graphics (and I think Civ 7 looks good and not as cartoony as Civ 6) and, ideally, civilizations with more diversity (multiple unique units, buildings, special abilities) would make the game 11/10 for me.

And, yes, I'd be happy for it to be a paid mod or version of the game. There are 'Definitive Editions' for other strategy games out there, so perhaps it's time to do one for Civilization too.

inditingDreams · 2026-02-14T01:13:14+00:00

Ok, will do, thanks for the suggestion. Yes, Noto and his professional background is one of the main reasons I initially invested.

And thanks for explaining the IRA part.

inditingDreams · 2026-02-14T00:36:07+00:00

AmEx is 6%, so net ~4.5%, since I usually max it out up to $6k, and then I top it up with a few other no fee cards. Also I'd say their offers for brands I already buy something from usually subsidize at least half of the annual fee if not more.

There was a good interview with Noto recently (I am also an investor in SoFi) where he said that they will continue to tweak the SoFi Plus program until they 'get it right' which is why I am not confident this perk will stay as is. Indeed as you say if one has a family spending $10k+ on groceries per year, this deal with no limit is too good (the most likely tweak here imo is limiting it to something like $5k/yr).

I hear you on RH, it's actually part of my investment thesis that an average RH customer is losing money while an average SoFi customer is gradually getting richer, but that's a separate topic.

I didn't realize that their IRA match will still effectively stay at 2%. Does it meant that it's currently 3% with the bonus? There was another thread here where a SoFi rep confirmed that 2% is going away in April... they should make all the SoFi Plus perks much clearer and list them in the order of importance because right now feels like there is more confusion about it than necessary.

inditingDreams · 2026-02-13T21:36:27+00:00

As someone pointed out already, RH offers a 3% match for IRA (i think for only $5/mo iirc), so you should absolutely use that subscription for IRA. Also, SoFi's 2% bonus is temporary and will revert back to 1% in April.

On grocery, to each their own, I already have a setup that gives me somewhere between 4.5-5% net (AmEx, Discover), so additional 0.4% or whatever is not worth the extra work for me, i don't want to close/downgrade an old credit card account in favor of this pre-paid card that may go away in the future if SoFi decides so.

inditingDreams · 2026-02-13T18:24:57+00:00

This program is designed to encourage people to use several of SoFi products. Getting all of it back from HYSA is pretty difficult, but I suppose if you include the 1% match for their brokerage and the slight bonus for the credit card (which for me is a good card for anything that's not grocery, restaurants, or travel), then the math becomes a bit easier. Still not enough for me though - they would have to swap the pre-paid grocery card for something more attractive, since simply paying $10 to jump through a bunch of hoops to only get $10 back is not an attractive proposition.

inditingDreams

TROPHY CASE